The Shadow Third: The interesting state of the US Electorate

It doesn't matter whether one blames Donald Trump for this or not: There is a lack of trust in the institutions. It's so deep-seated, that the idea that the removal of Trump, via incarceration or other means, will not change this dynamic.

So, this deep-seated dynamic has created the Shadow Third. What is, what I have come to term as the Shadow Third? Well, let's start off on the GOP side of things. The Shadow Third will NEVER, EVER vote for a traditional GOP candidate ever again. The neo-cons who are responsible for Iraq and Afghanistan, and thus consequently the Shadow Third will never endorse them. The traditional GOP even more put its own foot in its grave with their failure(in the shadow third's mind) to not only protecting the then-POTUS, but also failing to protect the Republican Government they had from 2016-2020.

So in short, the Shadow Third has abandoned the GOP Establishment, and in all likelhood the GOP in its entirety. Donald Trump has effectively killed the Republican Party, even if people don't recognize it yet.

So does that mean the Democrats can pick up the Shadow Third? Oh hell no. The 'basket of deplorables' comment forever prevented that from happening. Biden's 2022 campaign on "MAGA Republicans" and so called 'Election deniers' also staked another fork in the Democrats inability to attract the Shadow Third to the Democratic Side.

Then there's the policy failure of the social welfare programs and the difficulty of getting off of said programs that also hinders economic mobility, which is one argument Democrats could have made. The fact is, those poorer or aka those without. 'college education', will also not be drawn to the Democrats.

One might say 'well, you could just call them independents'. But it's more then that. It's not that they are merely independent of the system. They antagonistically despise the system. The mutual hatred is so deeply rooted, that it's very unlikely you'll ever draw them out in numbers again.

Maybe the births will eventually make up this number, but of the 70 million people who voted for Trump, I think as many as 35 million will not participate in 2024 and beyond. That's a more than 20-25% drop of the electorate.

(Or if they do participate in 2024, they definitely won't in 2028 regardless.)

After a short lived high that started with Obama's 2008 campaign, the Shadow Third will return the US to meager voter participation rates.

What's the biggest reason? They just saw(and i'm one of them, though I did not vote) the government totally get unraveled during Trump's term. It is clear that Washington despises the choices that the people make, that they do not agree with.

It therefore, really isn't a choice. So why participate? Since participation also will result in being called out socially, it's even less desirable to participate in the system.

What are your thoughts on the potential exodus of voters, that is to come?

 

I do think that Trump both pulled in a lot of voters; blue collar white working class types who had never participated politically, and galvanized a lot of regular GOP voters who got tired of the limited choices they were given by Republican candidates. 2016 was a glaring example; 16 candidates who differed in personalities but differed not at all in agendas. Trump was the only one who radically stood out with a totally different agenda.

So what was the lesson for those blue collar white working class types who became politically active only because of Trump? If you try to change things, "they" will stop you and throw you in jail. So in a post Trump era, I doubt those people will be back. They'll conclude that they were right all along, and the game is rigged. The Trump galvanized regular GOP voters will probably vote for whatever non Trump choice the party tries to gag them with, but unenthusiasticly, and with declining voter participation. That's probably a best case scenario for the GOP who want their party back, even if it never wins another election.