Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

Good graphic.

S. Korea has been the most effective because they created a reliable, functioning test using artificial intelligens as a help and without an actual physical sample of the COVID-19 cell to work with in less than 3 weeks time. That alone is worthy of a major prize one day in the future, assuming that mankind will have a future. So, that helped. But S. Korea's success was on the back of the huge toll that China took. What has obviously helped S. Korea the most has been incredibly agressive testing everywhere. The drive-through/walk-through testing has been boundary-breaking, to say the least. But S. Korea's testing, which has helped greatly to her the sick away from the well, has nothing to do with the inner workings of any health care system. Were all 50 states, DC and the territories to test this way, we would have better chances. And since the COVID-19 cells don't know how to read national boundary signs, a cooperation with Canada, using exactly the same aggressive testing, would be the best way to go.

And don't forget, the S. Koreans offered Trump the test: the schematics, the theory behind it, a how-to-build manual, the works. We could easily have 50 million tests right now had he taken up their offer.

 

I hadn't heard this. If accurate, it should be unforgivable - criminal really.

 

Agreed and that it why it is was a good idea for you to bring this up now so that it can be dealt with and alternative options voted upon.

 

There’s a certain economic benefit to culling the older population that cost a lot to keep alive. And being ancient and decrepit is no fun.
Maybe we should offer a comprehensive but time limited health care system. Everyone gets complete health care from birth that ends at age 80. After that, you are denied anything more and you’re not allowed to have medical treatments, regardless of wealth.
You get to live as long as your mind and body hold out.

 

S. Korea didn't "create" a reliable test. They used the standard WHO "recipe" to manufacture millions of tests. I haven't read about them "offering" their tests to Trump. We had access to the WHO recipe at the same time every other country had access. Out stodgy FDA rules which normally require months of analysis and verification of any new test for safety and accuracy bottlenecked the U.S. It was only at the end of February that the FDA rewrote some of its own rules to allow us to have private manufacturers mass-produce tests without the FDA's normal miles of red-tape approval process.

So we finally get mass quantities of tests which the FDA hasn't confirmed are any more or less accurate than the original WHO test. And everybody's happy.

 

You better hope that this is true. Do you have a source? Anyway, the point stands: we needed to be testing people weeks ago and in the USA, the worlds greatest nation, we DIDN'T. Will we pay a high price because of our governments ineptness? I hope not but fear we will.

 

The FDA has had the same policies for decades. It doesn't matter who is in the Oval Office. Our government is a huge behemoth which gets larger and more controlling every year as voters want the government to control everything to "solve our problems". The problem with that is that the larger and more controlling, the slower they move and everything takes months or years for bureaucrats to test, argue, and ho-hum. Our government is not so great in an emergency when we need them to operate like a nimble business and not like the bureaucratic behemoth they've become.


"The new policy is for certain laboratories that develop and begin to use validated COVID-19 diagnostics before the FDA has completed review of their Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) requests. "

https://www.fda.gov/news-events/pre...policy-help-expedite-availability-diagnostics


They may still have put in behemoth bureaucratic controls....if they are still going to insist on double-checking every test.

"On Feb. 4, the FDA, which regulates devices as well as drugs, released a document called an Emergency Use Authorization to govern the use of the test. The goal of the emergency authorization is to short-circuit the typically onerous regulatory review that the agency imposes on new diagnostic devices — a process that can take months to years."

https://www.truthdig.com/articles/t...e-time-double-testing-some-coronavirus-cases/

 

I note the US has about the lowest cases per 1M population.

Perhaps the industrial areas lower the immune systems due to pollution.

 

True, but 230 years of practice of having to be physically present in the chamber in order to be counted for a quorum means that physical presence has been anchored by 230 years of practice into the constitutional proscription, which obviously inferred such, to begin with.

It wouldn't take much to write a law that should get 430+ HOR votes and 98+ SEN votes, to avoid legal hassles after the fact.

 

No. Absolutely not. The only reason why the USA currently has the lowest cases per 1M population is because people are not being tested. Were we to know the actual number of people who are afflicted at this moment, I bet you would fall off your seat.

As a matter of fact, the highest numeric concentrations of positive cases are in industrial areas, something I've noted a number of times on this thread. In Italy, Lombardy is not only the richest province, it is the industrial base of the nation. In Spain, the industrial base is in Barcelona. In Germany, Nord-Rhein Westfalen (where I live) is THE industrial heart of Germany. In Hunan, Hubei is the industrial hub. So, keep your eyes fixed on Western Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, Northern Kentucky, Wisconsin, parts of Minnesota - our great industrial midwest. In Ohio alone, state officials have already stated that they estimate a MINIMUM of 100,000 postive cases.

 

I don't disagree but the provisions to make the tests available should have been in place weeks ago. That is on trump. Sorry.

 

No. This is patently untrue. They made their own test BEFORE the WHO test came out and started on their own test before their first case was declared, they created it on their own without a physical sample of the virus, they used AI and built a correctly working model and in 17 days, they were done:

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/12/asia/coronavirus-south-korea-testing-intl-hnk/index.html

Our FDA rules had nothing with Trump saying no. He simply said no. Hell, for a guy into de-regulation, all of a sudden he didn't want to de-regulate this one, eh?

 

I will post the daily stats later, but right now, we just crossed into 180,000 reported positive COVID-19 cases (it was 156,000 less than two days ago when I started this thread) and are now 7,100 deaths. Just 19 days ago, there were 2,800 deaths. Worse yet, the percentage of people who have recovered continues to go down, meaning that the group of people who are still sick but not dead or recovered continues to grow. This tells me that the therapeutics are only having a limited effect. And the mortality rate, which was 3.4% on February 27th, is now 3.9%. When you extrapolate that into the next five months, that means millions more dead than first estimated and many millions more seriously damaged, without quality of life.

Here the EXCEL TABLE.

 

The FDA was the bottle neck.

"Korean officials enacted a key reform, allowing the government to give near-instantaneous approval to testing systems in an emergency. Within weeks of the current outbreak in Wuhan, China, four Korean companies had manufactured tests from a World Health Organization recipe and, as a result, the country quickly had a system that could assess 10,000 people a day."

https://www.propublica.org/article/...-testing-while-the-us-fell-dangerously-behind

 

It is not looking good. We are certainly not seeing any deceleration at the global level right now. We are probably going to see the mortality rate continue to rise for the time being as hospitals get overloaded in hot spots. Although we may be able to dig into the numbers of individual countries to see which ones appear to be getting a handle on things. Since many countries are closing borders and enforcing quarantines of travelers, large countries managing to flatten the spread of the virus will slow the aggregate.

I took some time today to dig into individual country growth rates and made some projections based on the last 7 day medians. You can find the sheet here. Note that today's results are not completely in, so I haven't added anything from today:



One thing that sticks out to me is Italy's growth appears to be decelerating. It has gone from 23.6% growth rate in the previous 7 days, to ~19.8% by 7 weeks ago yesterday. Looking at today's numbers, it is on pace for further deceleration. That is a pretty positive sign that they may be starting to flatten.

On the other hand, I am not seeing such positive trends in the other countries. Spain has the highest growth rate by far right now, and at these levels it will hit every citizen in under 30 days. I expect their lockdown to start to stagger that rate in ~7-14 days. Switzerland is in a similar trajectory, but I suspect we do not have enough data from them and the UK to draw accurate projections at this point. I also did the numbers for Iran, but I don't trust their numbers at all.

I may split things up to keep track of one country per tab if I add in other things like recoveries and death rates.

 

The entire San Francisco Bay Area was shut down today on a "shelter in place" order. That should level that hot spot pretty fast. If affects the counties of San Francisco, Marin, Santa Clara, San Mateo, Contra Costa and Alameda, which includes the cities of Berkeley and Oakland. People are only allowed to leave their house for food, medicine and "absolutely necessary outings" for the next three weeks. That effects 7 million people.

 

You see the stats from yesterday above. Here today:



The numbers speak for themselves. From 2020-02-027 to 02-028, we jumped 974 cases and 50 deaths. From 2020-03-14 to 03-15, we jumped 13276 cases and 680 deaths, and then again from yesterday (03-15) to today (03-16), we jumped 13,050 cases and 656 deaths. The biggest jump of all was from Saturday, 03/14 to Sunday, 03/15: +17,837 cases and +739 deaths. So, in 19 days time, we have gone from 82,411 cases to 182,412 cases and from 2,808 deaths to 7,157 deaths. Over 19 days, the mortality rate overall has risen from 3.41% on 2020-02-027 to 3.92% today. That figure is NOT an outlier: you can see the statistic on a steady curve since 2020-03-008.

In the USA, the first case was confirmed on 2020-01-021, slightly less than 2 months ago. And now, 2 months later, we are at 4,663 cases and 86 deaths, 18 of which happened today.

In the total numbers for the entire world, the last three days, we have seen jumps of between 13,000-18,000 cases per day. By this time next week, we will be seeing jumps of 25,000-30,000 per day, maybe even up to 40,000 per day. This is an exponential curve and it is not abating.

May Ad-shem stand by us.

-Stat

 

It should also be noted that yet again, circa 350 people died in Italy today.

 

Really impressive, thank you for taking the time.

Do you plan on trying to keep the chart updated?

One edit that I might suggest is tracking the cases just from the point that the country hits 100 cases. This seems like a pretty decent starting point where the number of cases has hit a sort of critical mass where it is likely to start spreading on its own and from there we can really compare and contrast.

 

No country is testing everyone who has it.

 

Just stop it. The virus doesn't give two sh**s about your undying devotion to trump.

 

Thanks. I am going to try to. I've been following these numbers daily for maybe a month now? So I might as well if nothing else than to keep myself abreast of how things are going.

Unfortunately I realized I blasted all the formulas when copying this sheet, so I've gone over it again and added them back. I've also split out individual countries into individual sheets with additional calculations for projections of total infections based on averages and medians of last 3 days / 7 days / 14 days / previous 7 days.

The numbers for Italy today were promising - that is 4 days in row with < 20% growth rate, with today's the lowest yet (13%). That is some good evidence that their lockdown is having effect.

As for tracking a country starting at 100, I'd honestly prefer to start around 1000 since I still see a lot of variability below that (like Germany doubling their infection count between Mar 4 and 5). For now I'm going to see if I can dig around for sources with country level details since I'm not finding as much outside of the countries with 2000+ infections.

 

iirc that's how they extrapolated the estimates in previous outbreaks.
I remember reading that somewhere recently but incould be misremembering

 

this next week sure as hell will be interesting to say the least.

I've been zeroing my focus on preparations and pre-planning work for this & next week that I really havent looked closely at the numbers, this is a bit of a wake up call for me to help justify the planning I'm trying to do.

thanks for taking the time