Trump on Pace to Do What Obama Couldn’t

List the many Global financial crisis, normally people refer to 1930s obviously the money lost then doesn't compare. To understand the basic fundamentals of how the global economy works you need to read before posting meaningless arguments such us downturns, come back with substance and specifics. Understand the mechanics behind GDP growth Goods and services require global customers , slow growths outside the USA also has a knock on effect, you think you can easily recover from over 30 trillion loss in less than eight years? What world do you live in Disneyland? I don't lean left I lean more on common sense.

 

Trump's on pace to do what Obama could not:

Despite Legislative Sabotage, PDT Is Winning the War on Regulations

 

Obviously you have no idea of previous economic downturns in US history and how severe they were. Obama's wasn't that bad in comparison What was that bad was his recovery from it. Once again he's the only US president to never reach an annual GDP of 3% and he had two terms to do so.

 

Been there done that in a previous post on this subject. The list was long, extensive and showed how Obama's economic mess paled in comparison.

 

Let's not forget that Obama was faced with the worst recession since the Great Depression and he deserves credit for bringing the economy back from the brink of depression. So the length of time should not be measured, as long as it was successful.

 

Do you honestly think America's economic downturns started and ended with the great depression? That explains a lot.

 

Actually, none of them did. This one came very close, though, and you would know this if you lived through it.

 

What kind of useless response is that? You mean your response is in another post? Do you think I can read minds like Galactus ? Let's not fall out you have zero facts to back up your BS . Going back as far as the 14th century there are only 2 "worldwide" financial crisis and Obama lead us through one .

 

Obama passed off a growing economy to Trump, Bush passed off a failing economy to Obama

what will Trump pass off to the the next President, will Trump also pass off a growing economy that is better off then when he got it like Obama did, that is the real question

 

There has been far worse economic crisis in us history than what Obama "inherited". What made his so bad was how long it lasted and that was his fault and his alone. Eight years without an annual GDP of 3% growth is a number unmatched by any other American president. That is Obama's legacy.

 

Learn to scroll. I can't keep repeating myself for every newbee that shows up late to the conversation.

 

Why is the word "inherited" in quotes? Did the collapse occur on Obama's watch? NO. There has never been a collapse like this one,
and it was not his fault that it lasted as long as it did. What he did was amazing in that his administration stopped the bleeding and turned the economy around, and it is still growing, thanks to him. Sounds another one of the Trump base flapping in the breeze.

 

"Inherited" was Obama's favorite word and excuse for his every failure,that's why it's in quotes. The anemic recovery he masterminded was the slowest recovery on record and was reminiscent of the Carter malaise which I did live through. The very day Trump was elected was the very day the stock market soared and it's been on a tear ever since. We also just had a 3% GDP quarter in the very first part of Trump's term which is something obama only accomplished three times in eight years.

 

Anemic recovery? Yeah right.

 

Credit for what exactly?
Getting the Fed to bail out the banks, lower rates to near-zero and start QE (which were FAR AND AWAY the reason the stock markets have boomed so much since the Great Recession?)? All of those began under GWB...plus the people who implemented that were nominated by GWB.
What about bailing out the car companies and the banks (TARP)? Again, GWB did those.
And what about Obama's stimulus package (ARRA)? Well, according to the CBO, only $114 billion was spent in 2009...yet the recovery was well under way before then.
And you have to be delusional to think that $1.7 in Fed bailouts/stimulus in 2008/2009 did not have FAR more impact on a $13 trillion economy then a puny $114 billion would.

https://www.cbo.gov/publication/42682 (second last paragraph)

Plus, GWB had done his own stimulus (on a smaller scale) early on in the GR.

I disagree with every single one of the above policies by the Fed, GWB and Obama...but it is ridiculously obvious that if the recovery was due to government bailouts/stimulus, that the vast, VAST majority of it was on GWB's watch...not Obama's.

 

While this statistic is mostly true Trump has not passed any substantive legislation that has led us to the 3% growth. We are still very much riding on the "Obama wave" so to speak.

You also have to look at the full data if you want to look at the issue objectively and seriously; while looking at straightforward annual GDP statistics it is true the Obama never reached 3% however if you look at the same data on a quarterly basis, between the third quarters of 2009 and 2010, GDP growth was about 3.1%; and between the first quarters of 2014 and 2015, the economy grew by 3.3%, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

When looking at economic data it is good to look at it through different lenses in order to get a more holistic view.

That being said if Trump reaches 3% this year it will be a good political achievement for him and I wouldn't harp on him for taking credit for it. Even though he hasn't done much of anything on the issue.

 

I do not disagree with your post.

But I do want to point out that Trump has been stating how the economy is growing at a 3% clip under him...and this is flat out false.

One - the first 1/4 (which was over 2/3'rds on his watch) was only 1.2%...that leaves a 2 quarter average of only 2.1% so far. And for those that say he should not be held responsible for the first few months in office? Well, he took FULL credit for the DOW and the job numbers as SOON as he got into office. So if he is taking credit for those, he has to take credit for the GDP as well.
Two - the final revisions for the 2'nd Quarter are not even out yet...so it could still come in under (or over) 3%.

Plus, the site the OP based the post on has predicted (and they are usually very accurate) that the 3'rd 1/4 GDP will be only 2.3%. That would leave a 3 quarters average of only 2.1-2.2%...pretty anemic.

https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx

For Trump to average 3% growth for the year, the final 1/4 will have to be (if the latest Fed Now forecast is correct) at least 5% growth. NO CHANCE (barring a near-miracle).

I guarantee you that the first year under Trump will not see 3% growth for the calender year.

 

Right

 

The whole premise of this thread is wrong.
The economy beat 3% growth in every year Obama was president, except the first year.
http://www.multpl.com/us-gdp-growth-rate/table/by-year

 

Those numbers are misleading because they were projections and revised down as real numbers came in. In the real world he only had 3% growth for eight quarters and remains the only president to never have an annual GDP of 3% or better in us history.
Trump inherited a 1.6% GDP and already has it over 3%.

"On Thursday we closed the book on the Obama economic “miracle” — and it’s a miracle we are not in a recession.

Last week the Commerce Department released its third revision for fourth-quarter 2016 gross domestic product. The number came in at a paltry 2.1 percent, meaning that growth during President Obama’s final year in office — the end of an “Error of Hope” — landed with a big thud at just 1.6 percent."



"That low-water mark puts the Obama presidency in last place among all the post-World War II presidents when it comes to economic growth".

http://nypost.com/2017/04/01/obama-was-terrible-for-economic-growth/

 

The recession was over 5 months into Obamas presidency. Recessions end all by themselves.

 

All by themselves. Of course. We were headed for disaster, as major corporations were facing bankruptcy, etc etc.

 

1) Even if you are just counting the 2'nd quarter GDP, that was only at 3%. So it is impossible to rightly say that the GDP is over 3% under Trump.
Also, the number still has one more revision to go...and I am guessing it will be down.

2) You are forgetting the first 1/4 GDP (which was over 3/4 under Trump) - and that came it a paltry 1.2%.

3) The Atlanta Fed's forecast for the 3'rd Quarter GDP growth rate is 2.7%.

https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx

The GDP growth rate under Trump is (so far) at least as anemic as it was under Obama.

 

LOOKS LIKE AMERICAN FRACKERS JUST GOT ANOTHER MARKET-SHARE BOOST: Oil Rises as Saudi Prince Backs Longer OPEC Production Cuts.

 

Indeed they did and this is the way the market works, the law of supply and demand should be what controls prices, OPEC is a "cartel" (an agreement between producers to control pricing), never a good thing for consumers.