U.S. Economy Flashes Signs It’s Downhill From Here

Too bad you didn't pick some up before the price went up.

Interestingly it says this happened at the Feds around the world, not just US.

 

whos the say i didnt been,i been buying on the dips that past few years

 

Its been pretty stable since 2013, but I'll take your word for it. Of course $20.00 up or down is not much to write home about.

 

Predictions come from many sources. The actions people take when they see these predictions are predictable. No money was ever lost in the market; it simply changes hands.

 

Then they should be investing in the stock market rather than a place to call home.

 

Investing? The idea is to have a roof over your head. Keeps you warm and dry....

 

You don't have to be an economist to see where massive tax cuts with increases in military spending are going to take us once this bullish turn in the business cycle reaches it's natural conclusion which most economists are predicting to happen by 2020 perhaps sooner.

It's inevitable but just how bad, we shall see.

 

True, but if you bought a house in a ridiculously overheated real estate market when prices and mortgage rates were at their peak it's probably your own fault if the value of your house is below what you paid for it and owe.

I happen to be one of those people who took advantage of that opportunity to buy real estate during the last housing slump and you won't find me under water, blaming the economy for the consequences of my own poor judgement.

Probably not, Fred. If they can't invest wisely in real estate they probably shouldn't be investing in stocks, either.

 

The Commerce Department reported Friday that U.S. gross domestic product expanded at a 3.5% annual rate in the third quarter.

Coming off a 4.2% growth rate in the second quarter, it marked one of the best six-month stretches for the U.S. economy in the past decade.

"We think U.S. growth may have just peaked," said Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist for Barclays Capital, who is in Wall Street's big-slowdown camp.

Few believe a recession is near, and the expansion is widely expected to become the longest on record next year. Still, a slowdown in growth would have big implications for stocks, the central bank and President Trump. The White House says faster growth is evidence that tax cuts and its deregulatory stance are working, and that the growth acceleration they produced are sustainable.

Why has the stock market stumbled of late? Mr. Gapen said investors appear to be sniffing out the slowdown that economists have been calling for several months. While earnings growth was strong in the third quarter, and many analysts still expect double-digit earnings growth through next year, some executives sound wary.....snip~ Your link.


I guess going with the ifs. Its also possible that if Repubs have control. They might go with another tax cut, huh?

 

The rates don't necessarily have to be high. People buy houses when they need them, and sometimes the market crashes soon after. It is unfortunate.

 

And where is this going to take us?

You didn't have to be an economist to see that we were running deficits while Obama was enacting massive tax hikes and decreasing military spending.

Clearly, decreasing military spending and raising taxes didn't solve our problems. The national debt doubled under Obama and average annual GDP growth was an anemic 1.48% - the fourth worst growth rate under any president in U.S. history.

Now, on the flip side, we see what you mentioned under Trump, and what is the common denominator here?

America can't tax or grow its way out of its government's spending problem. The federal government has grown too large and too expensive, yet the American people and their representatives in Washington continue to spend money like we're still living in the post-World War II Golden Age.

The problem this poses to our country and its economy is FAR greater than yet another economic downturn during another economic cycle and it would be exponentially easier to solve if it was just a simple matter of accounting. Unfortunately, it's infinitely more complicated than that because ultimately this problem concerns the irrational expectations of the American people, and what are we going to do about that???

 

Exactly. And if you're warm and dry why should you care about market fluctuations?

Are you for more affordable homes or not?

 

Those who follow the housing market will say that the time to sell is when the locals start speculating.

And there were many smart people like yourself , but who was telling people that they should take advantage of cheap housing? Instead they complained that homes were too inexpensive. It never made sense.

Good point. I was talking to three cousins of mine a few years ago and they knew all about sporting stats. I mentioned that if they began following the market like they follow sports they may make some serious money. This struck a chord with one of them and he did quite well, and housing was one of his investments. It's as interesting as sports stats too once you learn the jargon.

Trouble is the average guy gets home from work and is often too tired to follow the WSJ or Financial Times, or just doesn't care. Then he may eventually blame some unknown quantity if his home loses value or his investments don't work out. Many have grown too dependent on the idea that government works.

 

Sometimes it's better to rent.

 

Has to happen sometime.

 

The point being the economy now is strong enough to hike rates. Under Obama the economy was to frail to even consider a hike. It also shows that the economic growth is more wide spread. Under Obama 95% of the wealth created went to the top 1%. Now far more of it is going to the middle class.

 

People care, because if you owe the bank $300K, and the house is worth only $200, you are trapped, and cannot sell it to pay off the loan. And yes, there are reasons to sell, like a job in another State. I have seen it happen to a lot of people and it wasn't pretty.

 

Yes, that is what people say after things go south. "Well, I guess we should have rented....".

 

Then the 2011, 2015 and 2016 hikes were done without consideration.

 

Baaaah,
I just moved 25% to cash @ 3%.

 

You're right that these bad situations happen but that's why we need do our homework when making a very large investment, like a home. Too many bought homes they couldn't afford hoping that the market would make them money. The government was really at fault as well, insisting banks lend money to those who weren't financially qualified.

 

No they just weren't done except in your imagination. During the entire Obama term they had one increase of 1/4 of 1%.
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/...ises-constant-rate-hikes-during-the-trump-era

 

Houses for the most part are just like stocks. If you make a wise purchase, any price drop will be temporary. I have purchased 10 homes over the last 40 years and have made money on every one of them. It may take a year or two to recover but they always come back.

You are right in that most of the people caught in the last bubble pop were in over their heads. I remember watching one woman in California who was flipping homes and got caught. She had a 35K income and was stuck with a 350K home.

 

I've done much the same thing over about the same many years and my philosophy is to never be greedy. I have been greedy and it's always cost me. I'm in the process of selling two properties now for about 1/3 of what was expected but don't really care. Let the next guy make a dollar too because we never know where the peak is.

 

Look again. Besides, you said it was not even considered, and now you prove yourself wrong.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Histo...olicy_(ZIRP)_(December_2008_to_December_2015)