U.S. jobless claims hold steady at 20-month high, current account gap widens

But so many jobs have been 'created'....

So new unemployment claims at a 20 month high, but new jobs created... and you'll note this little gem:

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-jobless-claims-hold-steady-20-month-high-current-account-gap-widens-2023-06-22/#:~:text=Data from the Bureau of,claims activity since October 2021.

 

We are at full employment.

 

Glad somebody is, because we aren't.

 

Full employment has always been anything under 5%.

We are well below that.

The unemployment rate is near historic lows. That's why you don't hear republican candidates talking much about the economy.

 

The unemployment 'upwardly adjusted' ( to a 20 month high, by the by)aren't an actual reflection on the state of the economy.

Once can be employed and not be able to afford life's basics. They still have to spend what money they have for food, perhaps shelter. That doesn't make the economy 'good'.

 

Weekly jobless claims <> unemployment, and no, certainly not a reflection on the state of the economy.

 

With historic non-COVID low LFPR. They go hand in hand

 

The LFPR is going to keep going down as more boomers retire. We should expect that.

 

Retirees are not included in the LFPR.

 

I don't doubt the numbers, but we far from any panic mode. The job market is constantly changing, especially the IT industry. Software development is definitely going to mostly gig work, where as before, companies always kept a software team. This is coming from a software developer.

 

Its nowhere near historic low. 58% used to be the norm in 50s and 60s and we are at 63 now (same as 2015) and going up.

He is panicking over the weekly claims number

 

I am not 'panicking' over anything. They drag out the bands to celebrate the 'new jobs' numbers as though the economy is rallying, but don't look at the new claims numbers, which repeatedly are adjusted. The data shows something a wee bit different then what those in power want to people to believe.

I'm still laughing over the use of the word panicking. Ohhhh, the drama!

 

I didn't say a word about panicking. As I responded to others, it's about the hoopla over 'new jobs' when consideration is not being given to the 'jobless' numbers, which are adjusted in the aftermath as de rigueur..

 

You are clearly confusing the weekly new claims with overall unemployment numbers.

As for adjustments, practically all monthly employment gains have been adjusted upwards, not downwards.

 

I can't find anything that says retirees aren't included.

 

Its the percentage of the population that is either working or actively looking for work. So, retired folks, students, or those who are not looking to work are not included. We do have lot or people who retired early, and have no intention of working again, and they are included in the rate.

 

Well as another poster put it, there are plenty of jobs available, but as I said, those job requirements are not meeting what job seekers have to offer. For me, i need to learn more about AI, because it will be a major factor in 5 yrs.

 

That would make sense, but i haven't seen anything that says retirees don't impact it. I did find this.

The Labor Force Participation Rate, Explained | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)

The Labor Force Participation Rate, Explained | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)

This link suggests that participation is actually going up among working aged people.

 

As have the unemployment numbers.

 

Do retired people count in labor force participation rate?

Labor Force Participation Rate

https://www.bls.gov/cps/definitions.htm

 

Yes, they aren't counted as participating.

They are still counted in the denominator, so they impact the number. They are part of the Civilian noninstitutional population age 16 and under.

 

No, employment gains have been adjusted upwards.

 

Historic in modern terms then and much lower for men.

 

It was going up pre-COVID and the LFPR for seniors is going UP.

 

The link I showed earlier shows that labor participation is the highest it has been since the 2008 financial crisis for people aged 25 - 54, and it is higher now that it was anytime before 1990.

The Labor Force Participation Rate, Explained | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org) scroll down to the second graph.

Unemployment is near all time lows.

Labor participation among people in the prime working age range is near all time highs.

We have plenty of jobs, we need more working aged people.