What do we learn from the Dutch elections. The Dutch parliamentary elections of 12 September have produced an interesting result. Two of the major traditional parties the right-liberal VVD and the social-democratic PVDA have scored much better than expected, gaining 41 and 39 seats, respectively, in the 150 seat Second Chamber. As expected the populist PVV and the traditional christian-democratic CDA lost heavily, as did the left-wing party GroenLinks (reduced from 10 to 3 seats). The far-left socialist SP remained status quo at 15 seats, a far cry from overtaking the PVDA as it had once dreamed. Many leading lights in the EU reacted very relieved. They point to the relatively poor showing of the PVV and SP both fairly anti-EU parties as an indication that the nightmare of a Eurosceptic Netherlands is receding. Both the VVD and the PVDA are reliably pro-EU. In short: The Dutch voters have come to their senses. While it is certainly true that the election result marks a resurgence of 2 mainstream parties and the relative decline of the extremes of right and left, it remains to be seen what the long-term trend in Dutch politics will be. A few caveats are in order. First of all, far more than VVD and PVDA the CDA is the most inherently and genetically predisposed pro-EU party in the Netherlands and it is also the embodiement of the Center. And it is one of the main losers, sinking to a very meagre 13 seats. Compare that to the PVV and SP, who are now both larger than the CDA. The fact that the PVV, after months of internal infighting and a very mercurial performance over the past years, still manages to retain 15 seats and remain the third largest party is really a testament to its enduring appeal among a significant base of disaffected voters. And the SP may not have realized its dream result, but remains a formidable force with its 15 seats. In that it did much better than the far-left GroenLinks who demonstrated their sense of responsibility and fundamentally pro-EU-credentials by supporting the caretaker government over the last few months. The victory of the VVD and PVDA is thus not the result of a desire by the Dutch electorate to reward responsible and sensibly pro-European parties. Rather, it is the result of clever campaigning by the leaders of these two parties who managed to position themselves as two exact right-left opposites, thereby leading tactically voting voters to stream to their banners. Now these two leaders, who drained the potential support base of the smaller right and left parties by positioning themselves as each others mortal enemies, must somehow form a coalition, probably also including the CDA and/or the left-liberal D66. While such a coalition will have a solid majority, it will be a shotgun wedding of ideological opposites, bringing together all the traditional and responsible parties versus an opposition composed of a wide array of more extreme and populist right and left parties. For lest we forget, the Dutch electorate remains extremely fractured, with 11 parties represented in the Second Chamber. If anything, this tells us that the Dutch electorate remains to a large degree disaffected by the traditional parties. If these parties now form a coalition paralyzed by their profound differences, this disaffection could well grow even stronger than it was only a few years ago. Dutch democracy and the Dutch institutions are strong. But the fact that all the traditional political parties that form the pillars of these institutions now have to band together in an unholy alliance could well fatally undermine their credibility and thus also the Dutch political institutions. In this, the Netherlands is but one example of a wider trend in Europe. Strengthening the democratic state institutions is of paramount importance. The strictly proportional representation in Parliament provided for in the Netherlands is a handicap in this respect. In this election the Dutch voters expressed a decided choice between two opposite policies. But the proportional representation in Parliament ensures that they cant have one without the other, and thus will end up with neither. In the long run, the introduction of some measure of less proportional representation therefore seems indicated. If not, the dutch political landscape will continue to splinter until all political parties will have lost all credibility. That is a danger we must avoid.
If all this would be the case we learn that Netherlands also is no different in its problems than most others in Europe today... In the unbearable climate of the economic crisis, you start to ask yourself... how are Europeans going to solve the EU Zone crisis by having its individual members' many political parties this keen to fight internally over power... If the VVD and PVDA really tried their hand at manipulating public opinion about themselves through a 'clever campaign' then that makes you question their commitment indeed. The commitment to the Dutch democracy and its strong institutions you mention for the people concerned. Indeed it would stain them as one, especially if, as you say, in their intention made an alliance through one single, occasional I might say, common goal despite having huge political differences. If each one of them really thinks their ways are best as opposed to the other's then they would never imagine they can ally with the devil only to be able to preach 'god's holy gospels' from a higher seat. Anyway I believe this isn't real. The Dutch people are way smarter than that and they saw their representatives' real intentions and voted for them because they know what all Netherlands wants and that is more European integration.
Actually, I believe only a small minority in the Netherlands want more European integration. An even smaller minority wants to quit the EU altogether. And the majority is very distrustful towards Europe. A United States of Europe is not realistic.
Immigration may be the single biggest issue, even if the Dutch voters do not think so right now. More people is going to mean less affordable housing and put a downward pressure on wages. In the long term, lowered standard of living and unemployment problems, not to mention an increasing burden on social services, can only result in more polarisation between the far left and far right. Much as it has been throughout the long period of modern European history.
In this case your conclusion is that Netherlands would be better off without its politicians at all? A Federal Europe is realistic today and the most in the nearby future for 1 simple fact: Apart from the UK and maybe 1 or 2 more all EU members want it. All the many poorer countries of Central and Eastern Europe want it very much. But firstly it is Germany that wants it. France has lately shown herself to solemnly consider her partner's, Germany's recommendations. Spain, Italy and Greece will be easy to persuade and pull along given their sorrows. Belgium seems to love the idea of having Brussels as the true capital of all Europe. Weakened Ireland will too because more than the Federation it will hate the idea to be along UK policy lines and be left alone there between the English and the angered superpower. This way the world's biggest superpower is created. At that point anyone left outside will be rendered a minor presence on the international scene. Does it need mentioning the cold sentiment the young Government in Brussels will have for those who played the 'i needs no one' game? It likely might pull some naughty economic strings around its half of the world and suddenly make those lonely yellow stars feel how much they actually need her. Stalling the flow of the most essential imports to these lone states will be the first step. You are welcome for a discussion on my USE thread.
I'm sad to hear the Geert Wilders and the Partij vor Vreijheid lost so many seats. And here I was thinking that nationalism was on the rise.. I hope the same will not happen in Sweden as well. Ah well, I can atleast hope that the euro crashes and drags the EU with it.
