What happens when Iran gets the bomb

I don't really see anything changing other than we won't be able to just go in and take them down. Even if we did it's unlikely they would set off a nuke and if they did so it would either be in another nation or on their own land; they can't reach the US. I don't want them to have a nuke, however I really don't see these end of the world scenarios coming to fruition. North Korea has the bomb and what are they doing with it? Not a god (*)(*)(*)(*) thing, just like every other nuclear power.

 

Well.. it means that Saudi Arabia and Egypt will feel compelled to get a bomb.

Huge waste of money.....

 

Nothing. I don't know why it's an issue. Israel never really used them.

 

The US is the ONLY country to use a nuclear device against a foreign nation.

Why should the US have the "bomb?"

 

They give it to Hamas and Hamas boats it into an Israeli port and lets it off. Then the mullahs claim ignorance and innocence and then the world refuses to allow Israel to act in reprisal against such an atrocity.

Of course it seems with so much Jew hating these days no one gives a (*)(*)(*)(*) if a couple million Jews get blasted in a nuclear fireball.

 

That's a fun fantasy, but how are they going to move that bomb under heavy surveillance? It's pretty clear we're watching them and have people on the ground, and are not the only nation doing so.

Edit: Also how is that our problem?

 

What happens?...BoBo apologizes to Iran, Israel gets attacked and we dither...

 

OK, so ignoring that it's not really our problem, why would they attack Israel? I have to assume that when someone says 'attack Israel' they are talking about a nuclear attack (conventional would be a nightmare for Iran). So, being that a nuclear attack, especially against a nuclear nation, would almost certainly result in a counter attack (quiet possibly nuclear), why would they attack Israel?

 

More or less...

It will temporarily shift the power balance, but as usual, it will correct itself.

 

They would attack because they said they would. It would be unwise to discount their threats. Also if Iran gets the bomb than we Saudi would want it and libya and syria and so on. You really want this area armed with nuclear weapons.

Well maybe if they are all armed they will wipe themselves off the planet. Might be a good thing.

 

Saudi Arabia has been yapping about the ME being a nuke free zone for 50 years.... but they may have no choice if this thing moves forward.

What is interesting to me is that about a year ago the Israelis asked the US to give them a Nuclear power and desalination plant ( 5 billion) but they couldn't comply with letting inspectors take a look at their nuclear progrsam.

 

I don't want ownership of nuclear weapons to spread, but as far as I'm concerned this is not our problem. You also can't believe everything that comes out of Iran. I'm pretty sure they were celebrating the 'retreat' of a US carrier a little while back. The carrier was done with its mission and moving on.

 

I answered "nothing", but my response was not among the options. What Iran will try to do once they get a few nukes tucked away is throw their weight around in the Middle East. It's hard to ignore a country with nuclear weapons backing them up. Theoretically they could bully not only Iraq but many of the Gulf States and try and seize the leadership role among the Muslim Middle Eastern nations. They would probably also up their (non-nuclear) support for Hamas and Hizbollah in order to ratchet up the pressure on Israel.

 

A bunch of unstable nations getting nuclear weapons.

Yeah, that will be great for the U.S.

No one is scared of the Israelis having nuclear weapons. They know that Israel is a westernized country and thus (like the U.S. or British) would only ever use nuclear weapons as a complete last resort.

Technically the NonProliferation Treaty gives the U.S. the right to have nuclear weapons but not the Iranians.

Practically, the U.S. has shown that it can refrain from using nuclear weapons even when they have overwhelming superiority (as in the early years of the Cold War) and not use them despite losing 10,000 soldiers a year in a regular war (Korea and Vietnam).

Who really cares about motives when it comes to nuclear devices?

Not good for the oil fields and the world economy though.

Remember that scenario is the set up to Tom Clancy's "End War".

 

That's possible. As Margot was saying it would likely have a political effect out there.

 

Voted "Nothing". Iran will be permanently shielded from US attack, Saudi Arabia and Turkey will go nuclear, and likely an anti-Iranian alliance will form among the Arab states.

 

So three more nations deploying nuclear weapons is a "good" thing?

This is one reason I think it is ridiculous when people say that Japan can take care of itself and doesn't need U.S. support (or our nuclear umbrella).

If Japan developed nuclear weapons, then South Korea, Taiwan, the Philippines, and possibly Indonesia, Malaysia,and Australia would start obtaining nuclear weapons.

And India, China and the Russians would feel compelled to expand their arsenals.

Yet, this (like the Iranian thing) is supposed to be a GOOD THING!?!?

 

Who said that? The US invading Iraq wasn't a good thing, yet you didn't see the world forming a coalition to invade America.

Realpolitick isn't about "good". Iran developing nukes hurts our interests. Invading them and losing thousands of trained soldiers to their chemical and biological weapon reserves hurts our interests more, especially when there is no proof that they will use their nukes if they get them.

 

Pretty much sums it up. Just because I don't want to goto war with them doesn't mean I want them to have a nuke. If we can destroy this stuff via our intel agencies or just drop a bomb and destroy their nuclear materials then I say great. It's full on war that I want to avoid. Besides why the hell can't someone else deal with this? They're not a threat to us, and it's not our problem. Maybe it's time for someone who is actually threatened to defend themselves rather than wait for us to fly in.

 

Nuclear Megatonnage http://bit.ly/s6nn0V

 

Well it would be an impetus to start off an arms race to get the Arab bomb, or maybe more accurately the Sunni bomb.

Saudi Arabia feels threatened by Iran and I think Wikileaks revealed that the Saudi's not only encouraged the US to attack Iran to get rid of their nuke effort but were also going to close their eyes to an Israeli overflight of their territory on a mission to attack Iran's nuclear facilities. If the Saudi's are willing to let Israeli military aircraft over their country, than they are serious about not wanting the Iranians to get the bomb.


As far as the Iranians go, unlike the other current nuclear powers, I don't think that Iran's leadership are rational actors. They may really feel it's worth going nuclear to get rid of Israel. Certainly there are plenty on this board who would agree with that. Anything to bring about the 12th Iman.

 

I didn't vote because the most likely outcome isn't listed. If Iran is irrational, they use their nuke. That's unlikely. If they're rational, they use it as insurance. They can be more aggressive knowing that no country will want to start a war with Iran. So they can control shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.

 

I don't think they could be that aggressive. Again if they use the nuke it's all over for them. It may or may not be nukes but the US and Europe would act quick. A nuke is more of a defensive mechanism than anything. Why nuke a city in a foreign country and risk war with the world when you could instead nuke an invading force on your own land; a technique that would make it difficult for foreign nations to stir up the drums of war for. Yes you used a nuke, but on your own soil in self defense. That's much different than throwing such powerful weapons about. Certainly it makes nations think twice about invading when you can wipe out a division on a whim.

 

It won't happen.

 

It probably won't explode. They have the same folks working on it as NorK and Pakistan.