Try this analogy: You are walking on a beach at 11:59PM on December 31st 2014. Somewhere on this 1 mile long beach are 100 grains of sand dyed neon orange and you have until next year to find one. Also this dye will fade within ten to 60 seconds and the beach sand is 20 ft. deep. Do you think you will find a grain?
I used to tell people something similar when discussing the so called Fermi Paradox. The Fermi Paradox pretty much gets thrown out when people fully understand just how huge space actually is. We all know that space is big but the average joe really can't even begin to comprehend just how huge it really is. It'd be like cutting the Earths population by 99% and putting one group of people in Australia and the other group in Alaska and reversing the clock back to the stone age before the advent of trans ocean ship building. This is one of the largest examples of the phrase "absence of evidence is not evidence of absence". The Laws of Physics places a cosmological speed limit on matter. Even if other civilizations have advanced to the point of reaching the speed of light they STILL aren't getting anywhere "fast" in the vastness of the cosmos. And if they somehow figured out how to produce FTL travel and zip around the Universe then we have another thing to think about. Humans always like to think we are special in some way. We wanted to think we were the center of the Universe, if not the Universe then the center of the solar system. Then we realized we weren't the center of the solar system so maybe our Sun is special and our solar system itself is special with it's planets. As time went on we realized that we weren't special at all. Most other stars have planets as well. But alright they don't have special planets like Earth in them. Then we discovered small rocky planets that resemble Earth in other star systems. Then it finally hit home, as hard as we try we aren't anything special in the Universe. We are simply a tiny planet orbiting a normal class G2 star in one of the arms of a normal, yet large, galaxy of which there are billions of others. We may have simply not been discovered yet. As you said it's like finding a painted grain of sand on the beach. Or ET may have known we were here all along and nobody simply cares about us because even though we consider ourselves special we may not be special at all. We may just be one of billions of civilization in the galaxy with life on it and nobody cares about us over here waving our hands in the air. Much of what I'm saying is taken from my blog that I wrote but we may also be looking in the wrong places. We may actually be "special" in the sense that we are carbon based lifeforms who need oxygen. Scientists love to say that water is the basis for life because we always base life on what Earth has on it. Life could exist on Neptune for all we know, crazy floating advanced organisms who are nothing like anything we can even comprehend. Life could exist in outer space. We always dismiss planets as inhospitable because they aren't like Earth but what if ET uses that same narrow minded logic when looking for us? What if scorching hot places like Venus are where ET lives? Or what if ET lives on Gas Giants? They could very well be Gas Giant type advanced lifeforms who have known about our solar system for years and sent probes or something to Jupiter or Saturn trying to find life that is like "them". They could be sitting there right not saying "Don't even bother going any further than Jupiter, nothing can live on those little rock planets" while we are sitting over here screaming and waving our hands. Or we may very well be some crazy phenomena in the Universe that somehow happened by accident and only happened here. The sad reality is that we simply don't know and unless we figure out a way to break our own Laws of Physics then we probably never will know.
We should also consider the realities of time. Our species has been advanced enough to see and be seen for about .0001 second of the history of our planet if placed into a calendar year as we know it. The same could be said for everyone else. So....in about 10 years in perfect conditions if our closest star had planets with creatures that somehow noticed us and used the same technology we might get lucky and get a phone call. Just using Drakes equation should make this so unlikely as to be impossible.
I personally consider abiogenesis to be the correct answer, but I would not be at all surprised if life was "seeded" by comets/meteorites. for some reason some people seem confused that since I reject the idea of ancient aliens, UFOs watching/abducting us, and aliens walking amongst us, that I also reject the notion of extra terrestrial life. The only connection between the two is that extra terrestrial life MUST exist for any of that nonsense to be true, but they remain two different issues. Can you provide any actual evidence that alien UFOs have visited earth or that those aliens have abducted people? Because so far it seems the argument rests on the specious "so much smoke there must be a fire" logic. So let's be clear. It is my belief that life abundantly exists throughout the universe - some of it sapient. It is also my belief that aliens are not amongst us nor have they visited/abducted us.
Not at all. I didn't say the search was flawed logic, I said your logic was flawed. I would suggest that ET intelligent life is probable in this universe. Of course its possible, since we exist on this planet. Yes, I am familiar with the Galileo's trial and tribulations. I was unclear as to what battle you were referring to. Is it the battle between religious dogma and science that atheists have supposed lost? Or is it the battle between theists and atheists? How odd that you equate a belief in UFOS being visiting aliens with the belief that life exists throughout the universe. Is it so hard to understand that I reject the idea of visiting aliens, while whole heartedly accepting the existence of extra terrestrial life? http://phys.org/news/2013-02-metamaterial-similar-3d-minkowski-spacetimes.html Is there a difference between a simulation/model and reality? In which case I misunderstood what you were trying to say, since I interpreted oneminds post as supporting ETs already having visited earth. Okay. cheers.
When you say 'seen' do you mean ET could see is by our purposeful radio and TV emissions, by SETI etc and our accidental leakages? Yes I agree. I have always assumed that ET's we come in contact with would be orders of magnitude more advanced than we. That could be good or it might be bad, by bad I side with Hawking's misgivings of intentional contact with ET (see notes for excerpt and hyperlink). However the intensity of the misgivings I would have would be directly proportional to how advanced the race is. And I am beginning to think the more advanced the better, because a ET that is ten thousand years more advanced than we would have already overcome most problems with technology. Lastly, as I said I would rather listen for ET rather than broadcast our presence. Then we might be able to hide if need be. Another thing is the method of com. Maybe radio would be like smoke signals in a forest fire who knows ? reva
Yes...as well as many other possibilities we are not aware of, regardless it is exceedingly unlikely anyone is close enough in time or space.
What do you think my logic. If its flawed its because you probably either don't understand it etc. ET means life not on earth. You are saying: Of course I know off earth is possible, since we exist on this planet. Is the above correct or a typo etc? I meant religious dogma and science as being like oil and water. Science is becoming more friendly and even almost merging in some areas but in others its business as usual. ? Maybe you would not feel it being odd if you understood what I said, lol. No, but that is not what I find unusual. Its rejecting the possibility no matter how small that aliens are real. I also doubt the reports are ETs UFOs to a fantastically high probability against. Still there is that tiny tiny chance they could be evidence of real ET aliens. Yes of course. . I think the biggest misunderstanding is the difference between probability and possibility. Back to you my friend ~ reva
I agree, our little bubble of electromagnetic issuance is beyond tiny when its overlaid on a backdrop of interstellar distances. Personally I like it that way. reva
I was referring to your misinterpretation of my post. Yes, I do not possess such anthropocentric conceit to believe we are the only intelligent life to have arisen in this vast universe. We are but one example. Okay. Maybe. I believe aliens exist. I do not believe that they have visited earth. There is far more supposed "eyewitness evidence" of ghosts, but I don't believe in them either. That tiny tiny chance is on a completely different scale than the probability of life elsewhere in the universe. In this particular instance, such arguments remind me of that classic scene in dumb and dumber. Hmmm, well, on this particular subject as far as our current knowledge goes in the Einsteinian universe interstellar FTL transport is NOT POSSIBLE, hypotheses, sci fi and Hollywood not withstanding. Life elsewhere in the universe according to the laws of probability is certain or as near as makes no difference.
You are a squiggly one! Let me attempt to clarify. So you are saying that there is a zero chance that any of the UFO pictures eyewitness accounts is a 'real UFO etc'? A yes or no answer would be best. I know you said that the probability is so great against that its inconsequential, still that is admitting there is a chance that UFO could be real. I don't know but I will say that we can not rule them out completely. reva
Life is common. Intelligence is rare. And Einstein was right. If the mean distance between civilzations is 1000 light-years, nobody would even know that we're here, much less care. And at that separation, there would still be 300,000 civilizations in this galaxy alone. Actually, it was Car 54, Where Are You?
Yes, I believe its a zero chance that UFO sightings and "eye witness" accounts are evidence of alien visitation. OTOH, you seem to be saying: [video=youtube;KX5jNnDMfxA]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KX5jNnDMfxA[/video] I rule it out completely until there is something more substantial than merely eyewitness reports of strange lights in the sky, alien abductions and crop circles.
Think on this: If you were of a species intelligent and capable enough to travel through interstellar space and create craft capable of visiting other planets.....would you drive around at night with your lights on?
No but what if ET happens to be a little closer like Gliese 581 c which is about 20 light years away. Its not the best candidate for life but lets say it sent a robot craft out to earth. I believe a race only a hundred or so years more advanced than we could make mistakes, like crashing their ships upon reentry etc. Again I am not saying its probable but it is possible that maybe one of the photos or the short burst of radio telescope (ie the wow moment) was the real thing, that is ET screwing up. Look back over the history of science etc. How many claims were made of impossibility were made only to become common place eventually? reva
Correction, it was "Car 54 Where Are You" a cop TV series about the NYPD. It ran from 1961 to 1963 The stories were true only the names of the officers were changed so they could continue to be promoted up the chain of command. [video]https://youtu.be/YgMxDMkOAwM[/video] The adventures of two of New York's finest (a Mutt and Jeff pair) in the 53rd precinct in the Bronx. Toody, the short, stocky and dim-witted one either saves the day or muffs things up much to the chagrin of Muldoon, the tall, lanky and smart one. http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0054528/
The only reason anyone goes to Gliese 581c anymore is the nude beaches. And believe me, when you've seen one naked ectomorph, you've seen them all.
How old are you or are you just an old film buff? You are right tho'. Instead of this; "Car 51 where are you? Anyway where are you car 51 ? (a play on words from the old car cult classic car 57 TV flick) " I meant to type this ;Car 51 where are you? Anyway 'where are you car 51' is a play on words. There is an old TV show that is now a cult classic the name of it is ;"Car 54 Where Are You" ? Thanks for keeping me honest! reva ps; I like a lot of the old B&W movies mostly because of the cars airplanes, and other stuff is in them. I especially like the old war movies from the 40's and very early 50's. I am starting to get into SciFi from the same periods but the FX is so goofy that one must develop a taste for them, kind of like getting used to the bitter taste of beer with a meal....
St. March 15 2215 (incoming from hyperspace text link AP); ' Where is the best place in earths solar system to do spring break? I hear that the moon of Ganymede, you know its one of the moons of Jupiter, there is a resort called Ocean beach is a hot place to visit! Have you seen those Jupiter girls? Kind of heavy for my taste! But a GMede-maid, now with 41% of earths mass they are nicely built, almost too slender, kind of like a earth girl...Got to go my friend, Alpha M-51 is coming up on the viewer, its still a month away but it will take that long to slow down to reentry veloicty ~ (above comparison of earth etc to moon Gliese 581c reva
My world view, model, or some call it a paradigm does not allow for 100% surety of anything*. Godel showed that even math equations etc can not have a 100% surety (certainty) of being true or correct because they are never complete. (of course that is a highly highly simplified assessment. In these message forums long book length theory etc is discouraged! Lol. We can however, delve into the nuances of the incompleteness theorem if you want, and If can stay awake!). So your world view is different! To summarize I agree that you are more than likely correct in the claim that the UFO pics, abductions, etc. are not really contact etc with ET's! However even if the odds are hundreds of millions or more to one, I maintain in the position that it's POSSIBLE that one of the stories or one of the pics, or one piece of metal are of a real 'ET created etc nature'. So that leaves us with diametrically opposed ideas, not a bad thing really. It happens in debate eh? A bad thing would be me demeaning you for your views, or vice versa. Your world view does allow for 100% certainty! If that 'turns your crank' (makes you happy), fine. In the physical universe (leaving out Gods Realm) I say it does not happen, so that makes me happy. We will simply have to disagree. Notes; perfection, 100% truth does exist in the mind of God. The physical world is dependent on quantum physics and classical physics. Our universe abhors absolutism preferring instead probabilities. IMO only in other dimensions or even in supernatural realms and dimensions (if they exist) allows absolutism to be the norm. Time for a mickey dee's espresso... reva
We've had the technology to potentially detect signals from alien civilizations for less than a century. Radio telescopes whose job it is to listen for those signals for about 50 years. We are only now, within the last 15, gaining the knowledge and technology necessary to find planets in orbit around other stars, and at that, only certain types of planets within certain ranges and sizes can currently be detected. Bottom line: We're nowhere near a point where we can say that there are not alien civilizations attempting to contact us, and most certainly not at a point where we can even casually entertain the idea that we are definitely alone. The sheer size of space and the distances between stars and other galaxies means that there could, hypothetically, be an advanced civilization living on planets around every star in every galaxy outside our galaxy, or even just on the other side of our galaxy, and we wouldn't know or even be able to know yet. It's like searching a square mile area of the ocean, not finding a lobster, and declaring that there must not be any lobsters in the ocean at all.
I do not reject the notion that it is POSSIBLE that Aliens have visited us. But given the "evidence" or more accurately the lack thereof, I discount that possibility in its entirety. What else can you expect from an agnostic atheist?
It has always seemed to me that it is a silly notion to believe that we are the only living things in this universe. Some people do not seem to grasp that the emptiness of space goes on forever. Its ends could never be reached. With this in mind, there is most likely life in other areas. Some may be so far away that they do not even know the existence of us and most likely carry on with the same debates on their own internet forums. Some forms of life may be nothing but one celled eating machines while other forms may be equal in intelligence as we are . . . perhaps some may be further advanced. This has always been fascinating to me, that is life on other planets somewhere. Perhaps you could enlighten me further with some possible links to read into this not so much on a deeper scale but interesting ideas with those who share these same thoughts.
Great post, I agree. I wish you hadnt said lobster though, now I want a nice lob tail a good steak, some corn on the cob and a ice cold beer or glass of of vineo ~ reva
