Why aren't we all infected yet?

I don't know why you'd think that from what I said. I 100% agree that the rate of growth is CRITICALLY important.

 

That's one reason I wouldn't want someone else putting a box of food together for me as long as I can do it myself. I don't want "any" brand of most products and I definitely want to look over the produce and pick my own. I also look at expiration dates and often pull from the back of the shelf. Your wife and I are just picky shoppers.

 

Don't most of the large supermarket chains have something like this? It is NOT a basic survival box but you can go online and pick out whatever you want, choose a pickup time, pay online and drive to the supermarket to pick up. You call them when you arrive and this load the groceries in your vehicle. The only difference is you choose the groceries instead of a predefined box. If you don't want to pick up the deliveries they will also deliver it to your home too.

 

Not for very long. The virus has to get to your lungs to gorw. A carrier would inhale the virus and the virus starts multiplying at some fast or slow rate. With someone who is truly immune, their body would quickly kill off the spores. I think that's where the term "super spreader" comes from: someone who has mild or no symptoms, but they are "growing" a heavy load of the virus.

 

Right. X is only a constant as defined by the population in question. Global cases have one X. Every country has its own X, different from the world's X. Regions, cities and even neighborhoods each have their own unique X. So X is not a constant unless the population being referred to is also defined.

 

Live long and prosper.

 

We do have a Curbside Pickup and Delivery options here where you can order online. I still am picky about selecting my own products. Stores have an incentive to get the least sellable products out of their inventory (like dented cans or boxes with crushed corners and older expiration-dated products).

 

As I understand it- the only ways the virus can enter your body are on your face- eyes, nostrils, mouth. The virus usually gets there via your own hands touching close to those areas. Now it can get to your hands from you touching anything the virus may be present on, and we know it can live of surfaces for 2-3 days or so, varying with conditions. You touch door handles for example every time you enter a store or house. Even at a drive through, you are given sacks that have been touched by others, and change for you payment.... and that money may well have been in 5 or more different hands within the virus survival period. Opportunity for transmission... IF you allow a transfer to your face by touching when your hands haven't been sanitized. I don't think anyone counts, but ask yourself how many times a day you would normally touch your face. It's a lot. Could be we could start a business producing a sanitizing treatment you wear on your belt, so you can do it anytime, anywhere....

I'm paying bills at the grocery by credit card, never have to touch much. The store has sanitizing wipe dispenser by the cart storage- you pull one, wipe your hands and the cart handle before you proceed. Also wash hands a lot and face a lot more frequently. I installed hand sanitizer dispensers in my home and business (which is small and not retail) and advised family and help to follow the rules, both at work and home. People who learn and clamp down on their normal behavior probably cut their risks 90% or more. That is what we are being advised to do, and I think it's working.

We need more people paying attention and doing that.

 

Why is it important? For starters, I am not so sure that up until this point I have quantified its importance, but since you ask I will weigh in with my opinion....

Because along with the death rate, the same principle applies to hospitalization rates in that the calculation is dependent upon an inaccurate diagnosed rate versus reality that contains far more cases. It is these estimates upon which all policy is being derived. When epidemiologists make predictions such as 20% of the population will get it, they are not referring to "20% will be diagnosed", they are referring to the actual number of cases based on epidemiological principles rather than how many of them will actually have it officially diagnosed. We are calculating the healthcare load based off of the incomplete statistics that only look at officially diagnosed cases, while their epidemiological projections are referring to the much different number of actual instead of diagnosed cases.

Just to illustrate lets say that there are 3 actual cases for every diagnosed case. Lets also say that experts looking at what has happened in other countries are concluding that 10% of diagnosed cases require hospitalization which is a number that I have seen published. If an epidemiologist says there will be a million actual cases, and then we use the incomplete data of only reported cases, we would conclude that 100,000 would be hospitalized with 1 million actual cases. If however, we knew that there are 3 undiagnosed cases for each diagnosed case, the corresponding ACTUAL hospitalization rate would instead be 3.33%, or 33,300 hospitalizations per 1 million actual cases. If the diagnosed rate versus actual is 5 fold which is not unrealistic, the effect is obviously magnified much further.

The public policy prescription for 33,3000 hospitalizations is FAR different than for 100,000. In a nutshell, THAT is why I see the distinction as being vitally important. Within this margin of error could very well have been the difference between the decision to shut down our economy or not.

While I certainly agree that within reason we should err on the side of caution, but with the above realities, why do you NOT think that the distinction between diagnosed and actual is important?



PS I do realize that what I am trying to convey above is a difficult to explain concept. If what I am trying to convey is not clear, please let me know and I will explain it in greater depth.

 

Things may have changed since covid 19 but we have used the online ordering before covid 19 and the groceries chosen were great. We have a relative that works at a local supermarket and she tells us that the personal shoppers there are told to pick the freshest fruits,vegetables and meats. They are instructed to treat the shopping experience like they are picking their own groceries. Also on the online ordering you have the option to allow the personal shoppers to choose a substitution if your chosen item is not available or to only follow your item to the letter. Also I think you have the option to add a note to every item that goes into your shopping cart. We added the note for greenish bananas instead of yellow but I am sure it would work for expiry dates and dented cans too. To be honest I doubt they would give you dented cans or expired product. At least prior to the covid 19 crisis they were trying really hard to sell the personal shopper experience and sending out inferior products would sink the program pretty quickly.

 

How do you recommend calculating it?
Which data will you use to make the calculation?

 

Have you had a minor cold in the last 2 months?
Everyone I know did.
I think a lot of us already had Coronavirus.

 

Great article. I hope he is right.

 

I agree with what you said. In the ideal world, we would know the exact numbers of infected, if we actually could do a lot more testing. However, it is not my side of aisle that tries to make a point that testing is not important.

Until we have the exact data, we can only go by what is know from other countries, where death rates are between 1 and 8%. That's what our medical system has to be prepared for.

The very notion that this is just like the regular flu is dispelled by the way the virus was first detected, namely by the unusually large number of deadly and life threatening viral pneumonia cases that appeared at that hospital in Wuhan. If it was really just like the regular flu, those doctors would have not noticed it as a new disease. Hoping that it will be just like the flu is nice, but it is wishful thinking and no way to base public health policy upon.

 

You probably do, but don't know it.

 

That is possible. I've never gotten a flu shot, and in early-January I had a very mild case of the flu for the first time in about 20 years. I'm not even sure if 20 years ago I didn't have a really sever allergy attack which "felt like" the flu with fever and chills. There was an uncommon mold-pollen floating around that year and a lot of people had flu-like symptoms as an allergic reaction.

The thought has occurred to me that it might not have been the flu (but it probably was). Early-January seems improbable to be coronavirus, but not impossible.

Anyway, I expect you are correct.

 

I see absolutely no reason whatsoever to make this about any side of the aisle. If this thing destroys our economy or it overwhelms our health system, both sides of the aisle suffer equally. The quip about testing and sides of the aisle seems wholly unnecessary in this conversation because it has not one thing to do with anything that either of us have said. In truth, even with widespread testing, you STILL do not get to a number that does not still require an estimation to get to actual reality.

The 1% and 8% figures are NOT death rates comparable to flu death rates based off projected numbers of cases. It is the death rate of diagnosed cases. It is the public and many in the news media that is FALSELY calling that a death rate and comparing it to the flu death rate. The W.H.O. very carefully made that distinction but no one seems to have listened. If we know with certainty that far more cases exist versus what has been diagnosed, which we do know, we are not then bound by some phony notion that we therefore have to assume that actual cases and diagnosed cases are the same. That is simply not true. We estimate healthcare requirements based off of flu estimates, and we can just as well estimate healthcare requirements based off Covid estimates. While I understand we have far more past data to pull from with various forms of flu, we can still make some sort of err on the side of caution while still getting closer to reality by providing some type of estimate in regards to Covid. Epidemiology in general is nothing more than an estimate, so lets not pretend like we have some sort of scientific aversion to estimation. The only people pushing the notion that we cannot estimate are those pushing the agenda best pushed by the death and hospitalization rates looking larger than they truly are.

Just to be clear, I am not pushing for an estimation to then be used as gospel. I am moreso arguing against the notion of implying that the death and hospitalization rates being reported approach anything close to resembling reality. By no means should we be using these known unrealistic numbers literally in order to set public policy.

 

Walmart has that here. But it is impossible to get a slot for pickup or for delivery. Maybe the 150,000 new employees will make that better.

 

HEB just started a priority delivery for senior citizens only (which they define as 60+). That's in addition to their normal deliveries. Not sure why they needed to separate, except I hope they mean they are getting food to vulnerable senior citizens before other delivery orders are filled.

They said there is no delivery charge, but a $10.00 tip for the delivery person is required. (Isn't that the same as a tip? ) That extra $10 will probably have seniors who are trying to make ends meet on Soc Sec alone unable (or unwilling) to take advantage of the service.

 

Ukrainian news agency TSN reported on January 13th of this year a spike in hospitalizations and deaths from “viral pneumonia”. Considering that in most cases of viral pneumonia doctors don’t bother figuring out the exact cause of the illness, I suspect a heck of a lot more people already had it than they realize. This virus spreads from surfaces. Humanity can’t stop AIDS, which requires a very up close and personal contact, and someone hopes to eradicate or slow down a virus that you can spread and/or catch just about anywhere? Human is smart but people are dumb beyond any imagination.

 

Sigh. Curb Side pickup waiting list is one and a half weeks here! Someone did find eggs in stock though, by leaving 2 hours before the store opened.

I'm incredulous that it's taking so long for the hoarders to stop and shelves to get refilled, but still chuckling about the situation....which is hopefully temporary.

Snip from "Austiin HEB" on Twitter....

 

Because you said this:

That seemed dismissive that the rate of growth was an important factor. Of course, if I misinterpreted, that's good to know.

 

I would just recommend that when doctors and epidemiologists do briefings or TV or other media interviews, they include the rate of growth so we can have some idea how fast it's spreading.

 

Yep .46 year old RN at the local hospital. She is in ICU

 

In Florida, our cases seem to be doubling every two days.