The Syrian Civil War has lasted three years, five if you count the protest phase. Over one hundrend thousand people have been killed. Billions poured into the conflict. Assad refused to flee, despite people telling him too, even demanding him to (Clinton, Obama, EU). At first things went badly, he slowly started to lose control. His long time supporter, Russia at first sticking to he will stay in power, even admitted he might lose. It doesen't appear that way deffinitely now. Despite Clinton saying, convinced, "Assad will never run Syria again", things turned around the winter and spring of 13' and 14'. Once she realized Assad will continue to run Syria, she changed it to, "He will never run all of Syria again". For a while, Assad lost a string of battles, losing more control, with top-levle government officals, even generals, defecting. People thought Assad will fall, so they switched sides. Damascus was almost overrun, along with many cities. For a while the Syrian armed forces were in numerous enclaves, Damascus cut-off and Aleppo entirely cut-off. The old minister of defence was killed, along with a with a few other ranking officals. Iran sent billions to Syria to withstand sanctions, over fifthteen billion US dollars to date. They've sent high levle advisors from their elite Quds force and high levles of the military leadership to Syria. In the summer of 13' they sent in 4,000 fighters of their Basjil- a paramilitary volunteer force, to reinforce them, with more coming in at later dates. Hezbollah, a Shia friend of Iran and Syria, mobilized their reserves and most of their forces to Syria. This gives them good trainning for a potential future Israeli conflict. Iran took Syria's oil and sold it on the market, to get around sanctions, giving them the money back. Vensualua sent oil, large amounts which have plenty of, in cheap prices to the regime. Iran has sent tons of weaponry, technical support, and ammo. The Opposition has recieved tons of support, billions total, from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Libya and the US. Military and humanitarian aid to the rebels. The US recently, probabily in light of the worsening situation for the rebels, decided to send anti-tank weaponry to them. Turkey has allowed the rebels to base operations and organize themselves in Turkey. Support flows in from that border. The opposition is 70-80% moderate, but with componets from Checnya, and Western-Europeran countries like France, Denmark, Sweden, the UK, Germany, Austria, Belgium, the Netherlands, US, even Pakistan. Al Qaeda in Iraq and the Levanent, controlling most of north western Iraq, controls parts of north eastern Syria. There's in fighting among the rebels. Homs, the 3rd-4th largest city in Syria and the epi-center and root of the oppostion movement, just evacuated their last contingent out of their today, meaning all of the major Syrian cities, except for Aleppo, which is about 60-70% in control of the government, are controlled by the government. Assad said on Monday that by the end of the year the conflict will be over, with just small groups of terrorists to deal with after. He said the Syrian Civil war will end this year. Isn't this embarrassing and bad for the US and Arab League, who spent billions, tens of billions trying to overthrow him? Especialy after they banned them from the Arab League? It'll be a huge victory for Iran, Syia, and Hezbollah, a humilating defeat for Clinton, Israel, the US, EU, and Arab league? HA HA CLINTON! Want Proof? Read this article? http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/179429 "'Tell Vladimir Vladimirovich (Putin) that I am not Yanukovych, I'm not going anywhere'," Stepashin quoted Assad as saying during their meeting, state-run news agency RIA reported, referring to the former Ukrainian president who fled to Russia in February" "Assad's strength now lies in the fact that, unlike Yanukovych, he has practically no internal enemies. He has a consolidated, cleansed team,” claimed Stepashin and added, "Moreover, his relatives are not bargaining and stealing from the cash register but are fighting.” Stepashin added that "the fighting spirit of the Syrian army is extremely high", according to Reuters." The comments come after the head of the Hezbollah terror group, Hassan Nasrallah, said that Assad’s government was no longer in danger of falling.
I think he will win. Russia is standing by him and is ready and willing to support Assad. He's dead if he loses so he has a lot of incentive.
There are things about the Syrian government I don't like, such as public smoking bans, a lot of censorship, banning of porn, but it IS FAR more secular than most of the middle-east, you can drink alcohol in Syria, unlike most middle-eastern countries. Religion is not part of the government. I'm pro-original foundation of America and constitution but anti-US.... if that makes sense Assads stronger than before, because the military has high spirts, extremely high which will increase nationalism, but all of his enemies will be dead, are dead, or will flee, like the article said. Anyone not truely loyal to him is gone.
Absent assassination, there is no way Assad won't win. If he does get assassinated, people will wish they had Assad back with what follows.
Depends on what you mean by "win." He will never control Syria again, and at the end of the war, both sides will be in control of certian territories. Eventually the regime will fall. This is considering the West does not arm the opposition with lethal weapons. He would have fallen a long time ago if they had done so.
The US doesen't control all of the US. Intercity areas of LA and elsewhere are controlled by gangs like MS-13, the bloods and others. Like Assad said, it'll diminish to an insurgency, or "terrorist" fighting, but low grade. He'll control enough that it wont matter. He has no enemies left really.... at least not by the end of the year. How do you think it'll end Gomba?
You have to understand that the people he is fighting won't stop anytime soon. You are dealing with Arabs here. Like I said, the war will end with both groups controlling certain territory. In regards to your comment on the US, all it has to do really is send the Rebels weapons such as man-pads to shift the course of the war (or greatly increase the opposition's capabilities).
You say that it will end with both groups controlling different terriotories. There's three groups now no two. Possibly four. Assad Vs FSA Vs Al-Qaeda in Iraq and Levanant vs other Islamic factions. It's funny, first there was infighting between FSA and the islamic factions, now the islamic factions are fighting against each other too. The conflict won't end with two groups controlling different territories. There's no way the conflict will end without one winning, like you said, "You are dealing with arabs here". One will win. They hate each other too much. It won't be rebels unless a wildcard gets thrown in.
True, but for the sake of a simplicity, the "opposition" will control some territories, while the regime will control others. There are just some areas that the regime will never get back. And I doubt anyone will win (unless as you said a wildcard gets thrown in). The Lebanese Civil War lasted 15 years, and no one really won in the end.
I read this morning that Syrian forces have moved into the once-rebel held town of Homs and consolidated its hold. From where I sit, this is a simple case of which side has the willpower to hang in there for the long run. Saudi Arabia, Iran, and others appear fickle in their support of the wildly different groups of rebels who even fight with one another, weakening their chances against Assad. Meanwhile, Assad is received support from Russia which appears to be in it for the long run. I think the rebel groups see this and are falling back to regroup in other areas and return to what they do best - individual terrorists attacks. And another part of this our American media is ignoring are the hundreds of US individuals who took part in this uprising and are returning home. What is their agenda? What are they planning? That's what truly bothers me.
