Winning without Territory: Russia's Focus on Destroying the Enemy Army

You wrote a lot of extraneous bs just to agree with me at the end. Yes, there are more variables than just the ratio of attackers to defenders, and yes, the 3:1 depends on having a prepared, dug in defensive force, but with the exception of true surprise ambushes, that is the situation most of the time. This is Basic Training 101, and over the years I have discovered that despite the hardships involved, basic training works, and sticks. 25+ years later, I still know the magic 3:1 ratio, I still know that a successful squad or platoon sized attack against a dug in machine gun nest is considered successful if you lost 'only' half your force. Of course, advanced weapon systems can change that, too. If you are a squad sized element facing the necessity to take one of those out and have air support and the ability to laser designate the target (or even give accurate GPS coordinates), then you'll probably manage to take it out with zero losses, but that's not always available, and as a leader, you can never assume it will be, especially when training for worst case scenarios.

It's not all that different from an airline pilot going through his 6-month simulator refresh... In most circumstances, they'll face more emergencies during those sessions that take a few hours than they will in the real world throughout an entire career.

Still, Russia probably can't 'win' this war, because a true, original goalpost definition of winning is the overtaking and annexation of the entire country of Ukraine, which at this point is not in the cards. From what I've heard, even Putin himself is starting to see the light, and is prepping 'his' press to set expectations a little less ambitious. I would love to see them pushed all the way back to the original border, including Crimea, which would amount to a TOTAL Ukrainian victory that I think is still quite possible... probable, even. But even if they call a cease-fire/armistice where the front lines currently are, that's still a win for Zelensky and his country. A TOTAL win is greatly preferred, but just the status quo at this point is still a win, even if that's as good as it gets.

The days of allowing bully evil countries (and evil leaders) to just steamroll and take over their neighbors just because is over, and cannot be allowed.

Once upon a time, using violence to gain territory was not just considered acceptable, it was essentially how things worked. But those days are over, and have been for decades now. As the sole superpower on the globe, we have to stand up to bullies, just like having a big, muscular dude in your school class that beat up all the bullies make high school a much more pleasant experience.

 

To be honest, I can't see even an armistice in place anymore. To be honest, the only resolution that I would be willing to accept would be a return to the 1997 borders as established in the Russian-Ukrainian Friendship Treaty, along with a DMZ to be monitored by an International force (not unlike that between North and South Korea).

Russia have shown that they are not to be trusted as a neighbor, and they need to realize their behavior is not acceptable.

 

Russia will not win this war. No one will, but Russia will lose the most. Apparently, Russians are the most unsophisticated population on Earth. Or perhaps they know what's going on and are afraid to speak out. We've had some pretty dumb leaders too. But Russian leadership takes for granted their population is clueless. Of course they are the ones who put out a barrage of disinformation designed to keep them that way. Looking at it from the outside it is almost comical if not so tragic.

 

Not long ago evidence was discovered Josef Goebbels was aware the Reich-stag fire was going to take place prior to the actual fire. He had discussed plans for the post-fire strategy (not a surprise to many). This means the Reich-stag fire was a false flag operation conducted by the Nazi's as an excuse to assume dictatorial powers.

I bring this up because Putin has followed the exact same strategy. In 1989, as the East Bloc countries were breaking away from the Soviet Union at a breakneck pace the world tensed. It was an uncertain time and no one could be certain of the outcome as the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) collapsed. In an effort to stabilize the political landscape George H.W. Bush (41) spoke with the USSR's General Secretary Gorbachev and assured him NATO would not expand Eastward for a period of 20 years. The assurance helped Gorbachev defend against his critics in the Supreme Soviet Council (Gorbachev's hold on power was very tentative at the time and Bush knew he needed someone to throw him a bone). If Gorbachev was forcibly removed, it would have been unclear who would assume the General Secretary seat and subsequently have their hand on the button. Furthermore, a breakup of the Soviet Union would mean many small breakaway former Soviet Satellites would be in control of Nuclear Arsenals. At that time the production and deployment of the US missile defense shield was more than a decade off. It would have been exponentially more difficult to prevent nuclear catastrophe. Hence the 20 year assurance given to Gorbachev of the USSR. There was no treaty signed, it was merely an assurance through diplomatic back channels from Bush 41.

A short time later leaders in the Supreme council conducted a coup d'etat which failed when Boris Yeltsin and the Russian people rose up to defeat the leaders of the coup. The USSR collapsed and ceased to exist. The Russian Republic (Yeltsin), Ukraine and Georgia among others formed their own independent governments in the wake of the collapse of the USSR. Gorbachev was the General Secretary of the Union, and without a union to lead he essentially ceased to matter. A leader without a country or union. At this point, legally the USSR no longer existed and all treaties and trade agreements were null and void.

In 1999 shortly after Putin came to power, 3 apartment buildings were bombed in Russia. Within hours the Putin regime identified Chechen terrorists were responsible. The next day at a press conference one of Putin's closest former coworkers (while he was an FSB (former KGB) agent in East Germany) made a statement on camera indicating there were 4 bombings. Of course the press asked him the location and the time the bombs went off. He read from a piece of paper the time/location of each of the THREE known bombings then added a FOURTH unknown attack with a time not far into the FUTURE. Of course the media was surprised to hear of a 4th unknown explosion (and a future date?). After the presser, they investigated and found no evidence of a 4th explosion. Two days later Russian citizens called the police to inform them 4 suspicious men were loading large bags of white powder into the basement of this same building. When the police arrived they arrested 4 men, all members of the FSB, all Putin's closest coworkers from Putin's Dresden FSB office, who were loading explosives into the basement of the building. The explosives and the detonators matched the composition and type used in the previous 3 bombings. They were released from jail, without any hearings, under orders from Putin. Putin continued to blame the attacks on Chechnya and invaded. Shortly thereafter several oligarchs were arrested, had their wealth confiscated and their companies turned over to these same former Putin colleagues who were loading the explosives into the basement of the apartment building. He basically replaced many of the richest oligarchs with his close former colleagues after conducting a false flag operation in which Putin bombed and murdered hundreds of his own people. Amazing what is permitted in Russia. This would never fly in any of the more sophisticated populations of the West.

Fast forwarding to 2008, with the war winding down in Chechnya, Ukraine and Georgia were in the process of joining NATO. At the NATO conference in Munich, Putin gave a speech delivering a scathing rebuke (mainly directed at the US) in which he basically threatened to start a war if NATO allowed Ukraine and Georgia to enter NATO. Angela Merkel, a former East German from Dresden now the German Chancellor, decided to appease Putin and give in to his threats. She prevented the Ukraine and Georgia from entering into the NATO alliance at that time so as to head off the potential for violence. We now know the reason Putin gave the speech and made the demands was because he had already given the order to prepare for the unprovoked invasion of Georgia in 2 months time. The timing of the NATO conference couldn't have been worse for Putin. If Georgia and Ukraine had entered into NATO in 2008 before he was ready to invade it would have meant the invasion would have to be called off or risk a crushing defeat by the NATO alliance. After Merkel appeased Putin, he proceeded to invade Georgia in 2 months anyway, in spite of his assurances at the NATO summit he wouldn't do so if NATO caved to his demands. He did so under the guise Russian speaking people in Georgia were being mistreated, along with complaints of violence along the Russian/Georgian border. Sound familiar? This is precisely what occurred in the 1930's when Chamberlain appeased Hitler in Czechoslovakia. A brutal humanitarian crisis unfolded in Georgia as well with numerous human rights violations and war crimes on the part of the Putin regime. NATO did nothing and sat back and watched as the Georgian nation was brutally repressed.

In 2014 he likewise invaded regions in the east of Ukraine (Donetsk, etc.) and the Ukrainian Crimea. In 2022 on the heals of Biden's election to POTUS he stepped up the invasion of Ukraine and attempted to take the entire country of Ukraine. Most are aware of the subsequent arse whipping the Ukrainians put on the Russian soldiers. Currently the conflict still rages and Russian losses are approaching half a million men. In-fighting in the US (the largest supplier of defensive armaments to Ukraine) has resulted in a pause in defensive assistance to Ukraine. France and Poland have threatened to enter into the conflict directly. Finland and Sweden are now poised on the northern border of Russia across from the Kola Peninsula. Logistics of US forces destined for the Middle East are mysteriously perhaps being diverted to Europe. The Biden administration desperately needs a diversion, especially one with the appearance of geopolitical and/or military strength. Things are looking like Russia may be about to receive a major arse whipping. Russia, no longer a superpower (perhaps not even a duper-power) would certainly be crushed in a very short time frame. Should the COTUS come to some kind of agreement to renew assistance to Ukraine, removing any excuse Biden has for direct intervention, a Trump win becomes almost assured due to Biden's feckless military and geopolitical record to date. Things will be getting interesting real soon I have a felling!

It is quite interesting the way history repeats itself. The similarity between Hitler's 1930's Nazi Germany and Putin's current tyrannical Russian Federation dictatorship couldn't have greater resemblance. It is likely too late as only the Russian people now have the opportunity to stave off the inevitable.

 

Correction: It was in February of 2022 shortly after the MIDTERMS.