Would you consider the battle for the senate to be leaning republican or tossup?

I would say leaning republican because remember they only need to make a net gain 6 senate seats. They are pretty much guaranteed to pick up West Virginia, South Dakota , and Montana. They only need 3 after that. They have an excellent opportunity to pickup Arkansas so that gives them 4 pickups. Then there are struggling democratic incumbents in Louisiana, North Carolina, Iowa, Colorado, and Alaska. Republican candidates are slightly ahead in polls in Louisiana, North Carolina, and iowa which gives them three good opportunities to make two more pickups. There are also republican candidates with potential in Michigan and New Hampshire. Republicans have the ability to make 6 pickups without winning a senate race in a state obama won in 2012. There is a possibility that democrats can pickup Georgia and Kentucky but that probably won't happen as they are starting to lag behind in the polls. What do you think?

 

I think any answer before Halloween would be a useless endeavor. Of course the mental masturbation could be fun.

 

The party that is out of power in the White House always has a built-in advantage in a midterm election. That is a rule of political conventional wisdom that has rarely been violated. Midterm elections always feature low turnout and are dominated by partisan base voters. It would be a failure of massive proportions if the Republicans didn't gain at least a few seats in 2014.

 

North Carolina will go republican. democrats are pretty much done here for a while. even liberals I know like the the new Governor and what he is doing. seems like Obama and Gov. Purdue sunk this state for the left. people here are very upset about illegals being sent here as well. NC has a huge illegal drug hub and most people believe these illegals are going to fuel that as well as many parents concerned about disease outbreaks in public schools.

 

It's leaning R, and the Rs should have the majority.

 

RCP polling average is 46 R, 45 D, 9 toss ups, 7 likely Republican.

It is likely only going to get worse for Democrats since they own every issue. Dana Milbank (far-left WaPo commentator) recently attacked Obama for a fresh coverup in the CIA-spies-on-Senate phony scandal that most people will never hear about.

 

I'd say the Senate is leaning R. But, one good thing for Democrats is the GOP is insane, who might screw it all up for them to take the Senate.

If the Senate stays in Democrats' hands, it's a huge failure for Republicans. But they should be used to that.

 

It's a long way to November, but every single Democrat has the stinking dead albatross of Hussein Obama around his neck.

Even Holder - the scandal goalie - can't change that.

 

If the GOP gets both houses they'll need to pass a lot of legislation.

 

They're actually set to come away with 49-53 seats as it sits today (this is my prediction range). RCP has 46 GOP, 45 DEM, with 9 toss ups, but their "no toss ups" map has it 52 GOP, 48 DEM (with 2 "DEM" being independents). And this is, of course, based on polling. So yeah, I have and have for a very, very long time had it as leaning GOP.

 

^Assuming an unpopular sitting President. Bush was popular during the 2002 elections, and the GOP actually picked up seats in the Senate. The sitting President has always been unpopular during midterms ever since. The rule is conditioned on the sitting President being unpopular and yes, with that condition, it is very rarely violated.

 

Guess I'm simply much older than you are. My political history goes back a bit further than the 21st Century.

 

I didn't feel it necessary to go back to the 19th century with my examples.

But really, it's a far more accurate measure. Go back to 1998 when Clinton was President - no seats lost in 1998, seats lost in 1994. GHWB had pretty much a 50% approval at the time of the 1990 elections, and the results were very middling - the GOP lost one seat. Reagan's 1986 election is an exception, where he had a high approval and the GOP lost seats. You have to go back nearly 30 years to find that exception! Then 1982 - again, Reagan's popularity down, GOP lost seats.

 

Yes... The events of 30 years ago are ancient history.

I stand by the veracity of my original comment, but you're free to cherry-pick to your heart's content. It makes no difference to me.

 

Beats me but as I read excuses for Sen. Franken's loss in a liberal publication I realized that someone sure has a dim view of the liberal's chances. I also read yesterday that Sen. Al Franken was trying to run as a conservative having supported Sen. Cruz on a bill. Good luck, there, Al.