WOW! Monmouth Refigures Poll After Trump Comes Out With Lead Over Hillary Clinton

WOW! Monmouth Refigures Poll After Trump Comes Out With Lead Over Hillary Clinton

It is something to see. The media has also lost all credibility this election and are not even hiding the fact they are stumping for Hillary.

snip...

 

Reuters/IPSOS poll did the exact same thing a month ago. They had been an outlier in Hillary's favor for months and couldn't care less, the moment they showed Trump in the lead they completely changed their methodology to keep showing Hillary ahead. Despicable...

Anyway, another local Florida poll released today has Trump ahead by 2%

http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-b...mp-43-clinton-41-rubio-beating-murphy/2290757

 

That's because the weighting is correct. My Lord, are people really this ignorant? Virtually all polls are weighted, based on past performance and with an eye on demographic shift. In Ohio in 2012, it WAS a D +7 lead in the exit polls. Did you know that?

http://edition.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/OH/president/

In 2012, it was D38 / R31, so actually, Monmouth is UNDERSTATING D strength by 2 points, by projecting D as 36% of the electorate instead of 38%. There will be less "I"s on election night than Monmouth is projecting.

You can cure your ignorance through education. And then you will find that you are bellyaching less.

 

Ya, 2% points is within normal statistical error especially when dealing with surveys. Weighting is just a way to bias the true results. Also, what was the population of data? How many were surveyed? Who were they? Do they vote? There are way too many variables to draw a reliable conclusion here...This is nothing but made up Democrat propaganda. The ignorant will likely believe it though because the media will parrot anything liberal.

 

So, when Monmouth showed Trump up by many points in New Jersey and in Alabama in the primaries and he won by many points, that was Liberal bias?? LOL.....

 

No, that's why they reconfigured the poll to show Hillary in the lead.

 

<Uhm, no....

 

<Uhm, guess you didn't read the OP.

 

Most polling firms weigh their polls. They have a model to go by, they want a certain percentage of each party. When they make their phone calls, live interviews, robocalls or on the internet depending how the firm conducts its poll they poll a certain number, say 1,000 as an example. Then they take the number of in this case party affiliations they talked to, example 400 R, 400D, 200 I, then weigh it to match what is the party affiliation today which is 31% D, 28% R and 39% I. The firm has to take the raw numbers, 400, 400, 200 and make them match the 31, 28, 39 percentages. Or thos 400, 400, 200 raw data numbers will be weighed to reflect 280 R, 310 D, 390I or very close.

Nothing new there. All polling firms do it to match the reality of party affiliation today. The original 33-35 is too high for both parties as those number should be closer to 28-31. But it is close enough considering the 2 point difference vs. 3 point actually. Plus or minus the MOE although they short changed independents. If the firm weighed the results to correspond to the 29-37 figure, they put the R's at about right, but have weighed the D's 6 points higher then in reality.

The thing is when a polling firm calls someone with a set number to be called, they don't know if they are calling an R, D, or I. So once they hit their set number they weigh the poll.

 

What's new here is that they are perfectly comfortable with the results of their polls (even obvious outliers) while Clinton is in the lead, the moment Trump gets the upper hand they "tweak" their methodology to still show Hillary on top.

 

"WOW" is right.

Your guy obviously is way in front...and Hillary Clinton is way behind.

You guys have no problems.

Trump is gonna win Yuggge!

You are the guys who are gonna be whooping it up in joy on Election night...and the Hillary crowd will be down in the dumps.





WOW...is right!

Oh, my aching sides!

 

Ignore the polls.......here comes the Trump Landslide!!!!




just like last time....

 

Every poll should be tweaked to reflect the present day reality of party affiliation. Tweaked or weighed, however one wants to put it. Each pollster weighs or tweaks their polls. Some give raw numbers followed by weighted numbers. then their polling methodology. How many of R's, D's and I's were polled.

 

Oh please, stop pretending you don't see the elephant in the room. They tweak it the moment their poll shows Trump ahead and they tweak it to move Hillary to the top.

 

Still. Who cares?

It won't change a thing.

Trump is headed for a crushing LOSS and nothing can change that.

At this point, a Hillary Presidency is engraved in stone.

If people want to rack up posts debating the nuance, have at it.

Hillary WILL WIN. It is already over.

 

Trump has cut his deficit in half in the last 2 weeks. He was 8+% behind, his deficit is down to measly 4%.

And the bias of the media organizations and in this case even professional polling establishments should certainly be exposed and discussed, even if you don't care.

 

Who'd "figure".