YouGov/CBS Battleground Poll: Clinton +6 in Ohio, tied with Trump in Iowa

https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/08/21/cbs-battleground-tracker-ohio-iowa/

Ohio: 998 LV, MoE = +/-3.8
Iowa: 987 LV, MoE = +/-4.0

So, in Ohio, in the Black vote, it's Clinton +88. No improvement for Trump - yet. Probably never.


-and-




Now, this is interesting because traditionally, a Democrat has done better in Iowa than in Ohio. However, in 2016, Clinton has struggled far more in Iowa than in Ohio. Fascinating. This also brings up a point that Troianni and I have bantered about a little bit, namely, Minnesota, Iowa's neighbor to the North, with a 10-for-10 (also 13-for-14 and 18-for-21) DEM voting record at the presidential level. Remember, I really work hard to keep an open mind about everything. Perhaps something is indeed brewing in the upper heartland, going into the snowbelt states. Wait and see. But I do find the data interesting, to say the least.

Now, to the Ohio margin: Clinton +6.

Bill Clinton won Ohio by + 6.36 points in 1996, his re-election. His national margin in 1996: +8.52%. And the Ohio polling was kind of all over the place that year. But the pattern is one we see in virtually every cycle: the Ohio margin tends to be slightly to the right of the national margin. The two big exceptions are: 2004, 1964. This means that a Democrat who wins the White House either wins Ohio by a slightly smaller margin or a Republican who wins the White House wins Ohio by a slightly larger margin.

So, it's not too surprising seeing the latest Morning Consult (R) national poll, showing Clinton +6 in a two-way and +3 in a four-way:

https://morningconsult.com/2016/08/21/trumps-campaign-shakeup-likely-little-late/

Seeing an Ohio margin tack relatively closely to a national margin is therefore logical.

Also, the Normington, Petts and Associates national poll, from yesterday, shows Clinton +10 (50/40):

http://endcitizensunited.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/ECU-Poll-memo-8-18-16.pdf

In comparison to the Normington poll, the Ohio margin from YouGov/CBS is slightly to the Right.

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The versed know that Ohio, Florida and these days, North Carolina and Virginia are the four big lynchpins to a presidential election, although a smaller state like Iowa, in a tight scenario, could play the kingmaker role. Whoever wins 3 of the quadrifecta (OH, FL, VA, NC) is guaranteed the keys to the WH. Right now, Clinton is verifiably ahead in all four.

And please do not the Black Voter statistic out of Ohio. Trump is getting 3%, and Ohio is often a microcosm of the nation.

Now, this is just a small group of polls, but worth looking at.

-Stat

 

Ohio has been heavily trending for Clinton, and slipping away from Trump, for few weeks (at this point).

As in PA, a state that Trump has already LOST, Trump's massive deficit (compared to previous GOP nominees) among college-educated White women is off-the-charts.

Recent polling showed Trump behind in Delaware County. Mostly attributable to his deficit in the college-educated White Women demographic.

No GOP nominee has a prayer in OH without carrying Delaware County.

Ohio seems to be slipping away from Trump.
A lot sooner than even the rosiest Hillary supporters thought.

 

Of those 4 states only VA is "locked down" IMO.

Technically it is still possible, albeit unlikely, that Trump will garner enough support to challenge in the other 3 states.

With the Hillary campaign it is easy to see the strategy and how it is leveraging their strengths in these crucial states.

With the Trump campaign it is hard to ascertain if there even is an overall "strategy". It really seems to be all over the place without any discernible direction, purpose or even message. The adage about failing to plan rings true IMO. The time for planning is long past and the ability to win in November without a plan is not looking good according to the polls.

One more point. The LA/Dornsife poll and the Trump "appeal" to blacks is feeding into the extreme right's belief system that blacks and latinos support Trump at far higher levels than the sane rational credible pollsters are reporting. Does this mean that those pollsters are downgrading black and latino support in their findings because it doesn't fit the accepted understanding of the sentiments of these voting blocs or are the pollsters accurately reflecting their positions? Is there any means to verify and determine that LA/Dornsife is an outlier?

 

Correction: wrong link for the Morning Consult (R) poll. Here is the correct link:

https://morningconsultintelligence.com/media/mc/160807_crosstabs_trend_v2_KD.pdf

 

A very good post, all the way around.

And, a couple of comments.

It is clear that Trump's people have no idea what the lack of a "ground game" really means in the swing states.

It is, literally, TOO LATE to do anything to significantly challenge Clinton in the trenches.

Such are the consequences of an AMATEURISH campaign. (Run by people (including Trump) who are in way over their heads).

As to the last paragraph, about the seemingly "outlier" findings of the minority demographic support in the LAT poll?

It is still my belief that Trump will get no more than between 15 to 20% of the Hispanic vote, and no more than 5% of the Black vote.

I really have no insight into the polling methodology of the LAT poll. But, until I see other sources confirming the findings--I will consider it a skewed outlier.

 

A GOP candidate must carry Delaware County, must win Butler County (Middletown) )60-40), must keep the DEM under 53% in Summit County, must sweep Ashtabula County and, of course, must win Cincy...... and must either win or duel both Montgomery and Stark counties to a tie.

The electoral configuration map of Ohio has changed since the Bill Clinton days. It used to be called the "inverse C" - but really doesn't look like that any more.

 

All true.

But across the board, the college-educated White Women demographic is going to be what ultimately sinks Trump.

Losing that demographic has taken away even the slim chance that may have once existed.

 

The Dornsife is a 7 day rolling poll based on the principle of the RAND poll from four years ago. There are about 3,000 people who take the poll, but here's the kicker: it's always the same 3,000 people who have signed on to take the poll every day. There is also supposed to be a mechanism (kind of a B List) to replace those who jump ship during the rolling polling. The RAND poll claimed to have truly found a large swath of voters who were truly independent and undecided - I am not sure they have such a reliable mix this time. One more thing: Dornsife does not release poll internals, so I have absolutely no idea no many respondents are minorities to begin with. But we don't even need to know these things to see that Dornsife is mathematically most definitely an outlier. When there are about 14 pollsters giving national results and 1 of those 14 goes so far against that grain, then that alone defines the word "outlier".

 

Yepp. And we are seeing evidence of this EVERYWHERE. For the spike in the White Female voter statistic is holding Trump's overall White Vote statistic well under Romney's +20 from 2012 and the well-founded expectation is that Trump is going to do even worse among minorities in 2016 than a Republican has ever done. And I want to remind that everyone seems to have forgotten the Asian/Pacific Islander vote - which will go heavily for Clinton and will be 4% of the electorate, maybe 4.3%. None of that is in the calculations at all. Pretty negligent, when you ask me...

 

BTW, the Morning Consult (R) national poll, which has a strong anti-Clinton mathematical bias, in spite of this, shows her winning moderates by +21. It, a GOP friendly poll, shows Trump getting 6% of the Black vote and understates her strength among Black voters.

 

The CBS corporation is part of a global corporation conglomerate and just their propaganda outlet, meaning incessant lying. They want Clinton's wars and the cheap immigrant labor she promises, plus all the tax exemptions and ability to pull money out of the USA, while domestic production is punished.

 

Is has gotten to the point where the only "good news" for Trump is going to come from "outlier" polls.

Of course, one poll (out of 12) might show good news for Trump--and, just as predictably, his blinded sycophants will start 5 threads about it.

 

And you have cold, hard data to back up this claim, right? Right....

 

"Many people" have said that trump the racist is doing great.

They heard it somewhere.

Like their racist leader, trump cultists are susceptible to simply spew b.s. Surely you didn't expect someone who's gullible enough to worship a racist, lying piece of crap con-artist like trump to be able to discern honest data from garbage...lol. They're trump the racist supporters...its what they are....

trump the racist supporters believe whatever nonsense they're told to believe.

 

Oh for sure.

If Trump told them yellow was purple, the sun rose in the west, and Papa Smurf was the new King of Denmark--they would wallpaper Twitter with these FACTS and revel in the circle-jerk of confirmation bias.

 

The other real important thing is the trending lines of the polls. Thev Clinton Woman has moved up mignificantly in Ohio and trending to a minute degree in Iowa in her direction.

I have said all along that Trump is one terrorist attack away from the Oval Office. That is a little hyperbolic but it would depend on when such an events happened and Hiw bad it was. I have said thst Trump and the sickest of his supporters are praying to Allah for another terrorist attack. I would hope that not even the sickest pieces can of fecal matter who hope for a terrorist attack go help Trump are not praying for a 9 11.,

 

This is the trend you should be concerned about, not a cherry picked state that looks good today, and bad tomorrow.

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-usc-daybreak-poll-methodology-20160714-snap-story.html

Unless the current national trend reverses, Hillary is not going to win. The trend already shows Trump ahead nationally by 2%, having gained nearly a point everyday over the past week. I think it might be the obscene rhetoric of the left, like the rhetoric you use, that might be fueling this trend towards Trump. Keep it up.

 

Yeah she has a lead and now she is trying to run out the clock. She seems to need a lot of rest days and to stay home and sleep a great deal. I doubt we will see much of her until the debates.

 

But, if she can just chill and let Trump's idiocy lead to his self-immolation--it seems staying home seems like a good strategy.

 

Thank you for that insight because that does explain a lot if it is primarily made up of "Independent" voters as opposed to those who align with either of the major parties.

If one was looking ONLY at the Independent voters who are UNDECIDED then that narrows it down to about 8% of the electorate. That is a very small segment on which to predict the election especially if one is discounting the fact that Hillary is doing way better amongst Dems than Trump is doing amongst the GOP and the differing sizes of those two parties.

Independents are much more pragmatic and less likely to be swayed by partisan affiliation. With that in mind it is interesting to note that while the main LA/Dornsife poll today shows a swing towards Trump the Predicted Winner chart shows a very different picture.

http://cesrusc.org/election/

Take off the partisan blinders (which these Independents are not wearing) and they are predicting that Hillary will win by +14.

- - - Updated - - -

Too bad your source is predicting a Hillary win by +14 today.

http://cesrusc.org/election/

 

Maybe. She seems very tired though

 

What source are you looking at? Both my link, http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-usc-daybreak-poll-methodology-20160714-snap-story.html and the link you provided http://cesrusc.org/election/ show Trump at 45% and Hillary at 43%.

Too bad you seem to be lost in some other world today. Maybe the left has become so drunk on Hillary that they have started to lose their bearings.

 

I've seen several "pundits" say the same thing about Trump and a terrorist attack earlier in the campaign cycle. I'm fairly sure one of them was Ann Colter. At that time, Trump held the lead in the polls on terrorism. That lead is gone and Clinton is favored in polls on terrorism now. God forbid we have another terrorist attack, but if we do, it won't help Trump.

 

Exactly.

Oddly, a terrorist attack might actually help Hillary because of her foreign policy cred.

But the whole "another 9/11 is gonna help Trump" delusion is beyond comical.

 

What you are basing your premise upon is a small subset of Independent voters. Unless they break 100% for Trump he doesn't stand a chance of catching Hillary, let alone beating her. And no, they are Independents so they won't all vote the same way.

PS It helps to know who it is that is actually being polled and what demographics they represent.