What To Do About The Long-Term Implications of Automation

Your comments on the world market are highly important.

We can compete in innovation, clean energy, high tech, automation, etc. - fields which require education.

That's the direction in which we are headed. How well we do is going to depend on how well we develop our raw material - brains.

Unfortunately, we're pricing ourselves out of that market.

 

Another liberal complaining that American factory workers make too much money

 

Corporations are the ones that see factory workers as making too much money - more money than it takes to buy and run an automated solution.

That's the problem that came up in the last election - rust belt workers and others being sidelined. We saw that in the recovery from the Bush recession. Manufacturing output recovered rapidly. Employment in that sector hasn't recovered.

We aren't going to change that. We're not going to force Ford, Carrier, and the rest to hire US factory workers.

 

You are blaming American companies for something that is not their fault

Globalists including clinton and congressional republicans forced American workers jobs to disappear by allowing cheap imports from china and mexico

We are experiencing what Ross Perot predicted in 1993

 

No, I'm not "blaming" them. "Blame" suggests there is something wrong happening, but free market capitalism demands that corporations work to maximize profit, and replacing humans with machines is a clear and legal strategy for doing exactly that.

Your second paragraph has a question mark, but I don't see any question to answer. However, I don't accept your premise. The idea that we shouldn't allow imports is pure nonsense.

I don't know what prediction you're referring to. It's not as if Perot didn't predict all kinds of stuff. You might know of one that turned out to be true in some way.

 

Perot predicted that NACFTA would cost American jobs which it has

And later free trade with china was even worse

 

I assume you are referring to NAFTA.

Any trade agreement is going to cost jobs in some segments and improve employment in other segments. Also, the lack of a trade agreement does NOT mean those jobs would persist.

I agree there are serious issues with China. For example, we're having our intellectual property stolen. That's a big deal.

But, the bottom line is that the world has caught up in manufacturing. It's no longer the significant driver of American competitiveness that it once was.

To be competitive, we need to be looking at the new economic opportunities and winning there. Those opportunities are in automation, clean energy, innovation, information, etc.

Isolationism may save some immediate term jobs, but it is a strategy that leads toward spectacular failure - not just losing some low paying jobs as part of a natural economic progression.

 

Fair trade is not isolation

China wants all the manufacturing for itself and is aggressively targeting the US

The jobs lost are more than just low paying

Imagine no auto or aircraft production in the US and that will be our future

We already tried to out innovate china in solar energy and they laughed at us as they imported cheap solar panels that hurt US production

Thst will be the same in automation

China will always be cheaper

 

The USA is not losing anything??

US business has decided what they can produce in the USA, for prices US consumers will pay, and this has nothing to do with trade imbalances...they are simply managing their companies.

You refuse to answer why US companies are not building all the crap that is currently imported?

You CANNOT force US businesses to build the import crap in the USA!

So please explain how is the USA 'losing' anything??

 

America is losing $500 billion a year in foreign trade

And yes with tariffs US companies can be forced to produce in the US if they want to sell here

 

Our government has continued to massively tipped the scale in favor of fossil fuel. Suggesting we "tried" to compete with China in clean energy is a sick joke.

Claiming we're not as smart as China (and thus can't innovate as well or create as much value) is ridiculous - maybe even racist. But, if you want to limit your economic "analysis" to well known and labor intensive manufacturing processes that everyone knows how to do, we really don't have an advantage against competitors from regions where cost of living is low. And, it's ridiculous to suggest that "free trade" means enacting law to try to change that fact. Such law IS isolationiist.

So, what do you want to do in the name of "fair trade"?

 

Remember the government loan guarantees obama engineered for solar panel comanies that went bust under competion from china?

We ised to be very smart before liberals ruined the public school and now American students are about 25th in the world in math and science

But we still have some good ideas that china steals almost as fast as we think of them

And then undercuts our price thanks to cheap labor and no environmental standards to meet

 

It's one thing for the US to not compete producing pencils but in the last couple of decades we can't compete on $30K-$50K items, like automobiles, in which large portions of US autos require imported subcomponents and/or off-shore production. This whole issue for me is simple; no matter our innovation, technology, automation, etc. the cost of doing business in the US is so high that on many/most items the US can't compete. This is not corporate America's fault; it's simply rooted in the cost of doing business in the USA. Attaching tariffs will only increase the costs to the consumer...inflation. And typically tariffs are temporary depending on the political winds so how can a corporation decide to invest millions/billions in new factories to build imported crap...IMO they won't! You are correct workers today and into the future not only need higher education, they will need higher performance. Those in the past 30 years, and today and into the future, who do not acquire more education/skills, will continue to struggle. 100-125 years ago we had lots of farmers/ranchers, then industrialization took off and people started working in factories as manual labor, and after WWII this was kicked into high gear with an economic boom employing manual labor, but in the 60's/70's technology took off and manual labor jobs slowed...suddenly there was a divided workforce...those with little education and those with higher education. As domestic and exported production quantities increased, now selling in a global marketplace, and needing to be globally competitive, automation and robotics and offshore sourcing kicked into high gear and hence the need for less manual labor. Exports have also slowed because large corporations today have located facilities around the world in major market areas to produce product where it is being sold. And this brings us to today where some believe the government can somehow force all of this business evolution to change course, to build all the imports in the USA, etc. etc. etc. I find it ironic that tens of millions of American workers demand the highest stock prices in their 401K's, etc. yet villainize the same corporations who strive to achieve this by using all available global tools...

 

You are clueless...the US government can 'encourage' or 'incentivize' the private sector to do some things but make no mistake it is the private sector who makes 100% the decision what they are going to produce, where they are going to produce, and where they are going to sell.

Please explain why US companies are not producing more exports?????

Please explain why US companies are not producing all the same products that are currently imported?

There is NOTHING preventing US companies today from producing anything they wish! Why do you suppose they don't build everything?

 

Wow. Are you really suggesting that some loan guaratees is comparable to what we do for fossil fuel?

Clean energy in the US will continue to be stunted until there is a more level playing field - one where fossil fuel isn't given significant advantage by our government.

I agree that China is stealing our innovation and that they are more closed to free trade than are we. These are serious problems.

I'm definitely glad to see that you recognize the education connection here. We have 5% of the brains - the raw material of the sectors of the coming economy where we CAN have an advantage.

But, rather than ensuring that every piece of our 5% is used to the max in our compeition witth the world, we have raised a serious paywall AGAINST full participaion.

That is a crime against America committed by us and traceable to the economic crash of 2008 that eliminated large amouts of state support for education - support has never recovered.

 

That's a heck of a paragraph!

It's certainly true that we're going to have a hard time competing when the competition is based on low cost labor while we have a standard of living that isn't cheap. We need to be aware of sectors where we win or can win, and then push in those directions rather than trying to bash and bully our way downn a path that just doesn't match our advantages. Yelling at Carrier and Ford? Telling Coal we're going to make them successful? Good LORD!

The problem I have with the current "get tough" approach to China is that I don't see any indication that we have a strategy that will win.

China is WAY smart compared to our own leadership. In fact, one of our most important trade tools against China, the Pacific trade pact) was simply tossed into the garbage by Trump.

 

I've read that China annually has more than double that of the US in university graduates...8-9 million per year...with a focus in technology. I can guess that the best and brightest kids in China greatly outnumber the US. To be fair this is mostly due to the large population in China, but nonetheless, the talent being produced in China over time are going to lead the world, including key positions in US corporations. We have US companies claiming they cannot find qualified employees in the US and hence demands on government for more green cards as well as increased offshore sourcing and facilities. Based on our choice for Secretary of Education I can guess the US is not doing much to create technology-advanced students. Trump being a bully with China, or Mexico, and others will not be productive...

 

Amen. The fact that they are that much larger means we have to work harder.

But, we don't.

Instead of that we have errected a hugely expensive paywall that limits who can even apply for higher education.

We want the kids of poor parents to turn things around. Then, we make it far harder or impossible to go beyond high school. And, even there states organize such that kids of low income parents get worse high schools.

 

Thevadvantage of fossile fuel over solar power is a natural one

Its better for many applications and its cheaper

The government does relatively little for oil

Land owners are entitled to a tax break called the Oil Depletion Allowance but not much more

Solar on the other hand gets massive tax subsidies to homeowners if the want to buy solar panels for their home

The obama plan as he told us was to make fossil fuels such as coal and oil so expensive as the be unaffordable for average people either through regulation or taxes

An idea that the french public is rioting against right now

 

I wish I had an easy answer to the education puzzle but I dont

In part we are victims of our own success as a nation

Our children have everything and many chinese kids have very little

So the chinese kids work harder in school and shun unimportant subjects like womens or black studies and instead become engineers and scientists because they want to be rich like Americans someday

And the chinese government encouages this by promoting a no nonsense education system where students respect and obey their teachers

because beijing wants to rule the world

Or at least dominate it to a great extent

And dumb gloalists in the west play right into the hands of china like lambs willingly going to the slaughter

 

Not sure how to encourage Americans to work harder...or smarter? Sadly a large portion of our workforce is more about entitlement and 'what's in it for me' than they are doing the best they can do. Individually they might feel like they are gaining the system but overall we are creating a costly and difficult workforce that has very negative ramifications on business and competitiveness.

Several years ago while vacationing in Mexico, next to our resort, they were building another large resort, and that day there was a chain-gang of about 50 workers transferring bags of cement from the truck about 50 yards to the construction site. My son asked me why they weren't using a tractor and I guessed that the workers they needed were available, they were okay with the pay, they showed up every day, and they worked hard. Thinking about this later, it was once like this in the USA where people were proud and worked hard. Today in the US American workers will never consider doing this job, but immigrants will do it, while Americans claim others are stealing their jobs. I think it's great that Americans desire to do other types of jobs but they must acquire more education and skills instead of just demanding higher pay, longer breaks, more vacation, etc.

One of the reasons we have automation today is because US labor in many instances has become a problem; too costly or inefficient and little loyalty. The more these areas are exacerbated the more automation we will see...

 

Well...millions of kids in the USA have little to nothing...so why aren't they working harder?

News flash; engineers and scientists alone provide but a small percentage of actual labor needed in society...liberal arts studies are important!

The US has taken many steps over the decades to RULE the world...what's wrong with others giving it a try?

Be careful who you are calling 'dumb'...

 

China doesn't share our interest in the rule of law, our concept of fundamental rights, democracy, equality of man, etc. So, there is NOT A CHANCE of me accepting Chinese direction on anything outside of China.

But, you've had good ideas all year long - here's wishes for a great holiday season!

 

They should be

But liberal pop culture, bad single-mom households, lousy teachers and craddle to grave welfare offer them an option to working hard

 

Even though China has made great strides, China remains a developing nation in the grand scheme of things. China's GDP per capita is about 25% that of the USA. We don't need to go back too many years in the USA where rule of law, fundamental rights, democracy, equality, etc. were quite questionable. We have advanced but we still can act like idiots. Regarding China, although they have more history today to help guide them if they wish, IMO they are simply evolving at whatever rate their society and culture allows and we should not compare them to the USA. The USA needs to focus on our path and do the best we can do while keeping a close eye on China and others. Logically, given some time, China and India have a high probability to become the world's superpower...like it or not...