‘The damage is done’: Russians face economic point of no return

As markets opened in a panic on Monday, many Russians rushed to local cashpoints in Moscow to retrieve their savings before the damage got any worse.

“It said they had dollars so I came here immediately,” said Alexei Presnyakov, 32, pointing to an app for Russia’s Tinkoff Bank, indicating he could withdraw hard currency. About 20 people were queued in line. “Yesterday [the rate] was 80 [to the dollar]. Today it’s 100. Or 150.”

“I just made a spontaneous decision today that I would ask [out of work] and go around until I took out all my money,” he said. “Before it was worth zero.”

Within minutes, however, the word traveled down the queue: the dollars were gone.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...one-russians-face-economic-point-of-no-return

_____________________________

When Biden said that if Russia attacked Ukraine, it would face the worst economic consequences in history, he was right.

The rate of collapse is 10x faster than I thought it would be.

It's only been a week and almost 30% of all the financial wealth of the country is gone.

It's a horrendous economic crisis that awaits the Russians and if Putin doesn't withdraw his troops soon, Russia will become a third world country for a long time.

And I even doubt that the sanctions will stop as long as Putin remains in power.

 

Are you under the impression this was unexpected by Putin?

 

No.

Putin has prepared his country to face economic sanctions, he has placed in reserve between 600 and 800 billion $ in gold and US dollars since 2014.

Except that he did not foresee that the Moscow stock exchange would lose 30%+ of its value in a day.

It didn't open today for fear of a general collapse.

The ruble also lost 30% of its value.

Hundreds of thousands of Russians are rushing to the banks to withdraw their money .... which will soon be worthless.

So $200 billion was used urgently to support the currency, in addition to a recovery of interest rates to 20%.

Putin also didn't foresee that the country's first bank, Sberbank, would go bankrupt within days.

The central bank's assets abroad are frozen, and the money still available inside the country cannot leave because the Russian banking network has been disconnected from SWIFT.

Therefore, it is impossible to make any international trade.

It's the asphyxiation of a country in accelerated.

 

Everybody that lays down with a dog will get fleas.

 

Time to hold Putin accountable for war crimes. Give him the Slobodan Milošević treatment

 

I assume Putin has studied Hitler and Schacht's methods to stabilize the Mark in the 30s. I have read Schacht's Wizard book. The solution was simple and incredibly effective. Trade unilaterally on the international market and deal in foreign currencies. If you have product, all you have to do is find buyers and take payment in the currency of your choice. You can then buy any goods you don't produce domestically.

 

And what do you think Putin is going to do about that? You think he’s just going to go, “Oh **** lemme pull my troops back!”?

I’ll tell you what I think is going to happen and already started.

Putin is going to get desperate (because you’re right I think it happened faster than he expected). So, He’s going to pressure his allies into enjoining the war with him. He’s already succeeded with Belarus.

Worst case scenario: He’s going to take Ukraine and he’s going to move onto the other Baltic states. At the same time he’s going convince China to take Hong Kong and Taiwan by force. Opening a global war on two fronts.

Best case scenario: he’s going to take the Baltic states without China going to war but uses China to stabilize his economy and bypass the sanctions. But he still takes the Baltic states with nobody stopping him.

What I’m 99.999999% sure of is he will not simply withdraw. He will escalate. This is a man who has already pushed all of his chips into the middle of the table and he wants to see your hand. Meanwhile the west is still dicking around trying to decide if they want to bet or not.

 

And it is closed until March 5th now for the same reasons:

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/moscow-suspends-stock-trading-until-march-5

 

Well, I am not surprised he's going for Kiev but, the West has to play the long game and hurt him and his 'earners' right where they live financially. All the Western countries are hooked on Russian money laundering and he is hoping that in the not too distant future, the West will go back to the corrupt Russian teat. That's his long term gamble in addition to the world economy trying to keep crude prices down.

 

It took Germany a month to invade Poland and score a decisive victory to mark the inevitable win within 2 months. Russia will do approximately the same with the Ukraine. In fact they’re already at Kiev now. They’re about to engage in the decisive battle well before the two week mark and take the capitol.

BTW anybody heard from Zelenskyy lately?

 

Except, these aren't Biden sanctions. They are Europe's sanctions And as a matter of fact, Ukraine had some nasty stuff to say about Biden and Democrats.

Ukrainian government official shreds Biden, Democrats: 'If Democrats weren’t such p***ies in foreign policy, this might not have happened'
“The Obama-Biden administration has refused lethal aid to Ukraine for a long time,” the official told the Daily Wire under the condition of anonymity. “It was [former President Donald] Trump who was the first to provide some Javelins to Ukraine, then Biden started sending Javelins in mass just before invasion. But too little, too late.”

The official added that everything Biden has done thus far since being in office has been a day late and a dollar short.

“Biden’s first step in office was to lift sanctions on Nord Stream 2. Now he applies them heavily. Now it’s too late,” the official added. “If Democrats did not play into the weak policy of not sending weapons to Ukraine and lifting sanctions on Nord Stream 2, Putin would probably think twice or three times. Also, we never understood why would Biden say that no U.S. troops would be involved. Even if he did not intend to, why say it when no one asked? At least [he] could have speculated on the possibility to deter an attack.”
https://www.theblaze.com/news/ukrainian-government-official-shreds-biden-democrats

Seems Ukraine is a bit pissed at the incompetence of Biden and the democrats.

 

Let’s say he did, why do it? How is it worth it?

 

Yes. Obama's policy of sending non-lethal aid to Ukraine was definitely a mistake. Something that the Trump administration was correct to start.

But Europe's sanctions would not have come out with the solidarity that they did without the Biden administration's efforts to get European allies on board:

https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/26/politics/biden-administration-sanctions-russia/index.html

The speed with which the sanctions have come in, and their severity, would not have been possible without this broad cooperation. These plans could not have been drawn up over night. Moreover, Biden has been careful not to do anything unilaterally - a very important step given that Putin has operated historically by trying to divide the west.

But, let me not oversell the Biden administration's impact on the sanctions. The escalation of the sanctions from the initial tepid release, to the full onslaught that has built, has as much to do with the Ukrainian people's resolve to fight. Zelensky's rallying of his nation and the world to their cause has been just as important. They have helped consolidate the west to accelerate and move in unison.

 

I would very much agree. Zelensky was really picked at about being a comedian up front on this and most wondered how fast he would flee or fail but the guy has stood his ground, hasn't left, and seems to have rallied the NATO alliance around him.
I say good for him. I sincerely hope he can succeed in this and I hope the Ukrainian people can defend their homeland.
It seems he and the people of Ukraine have garnered the attention of most on the planet coupled with the fall of Ukraine and how that will impact other European nations.

I'm not a fan of Trump or Biden and I wish we had real leaders in our country that would do more. Its really a shame how we have reached this point in our leadership as the world isn't a better place for it.

 

We lost that much in stock prices and more when covid hit and it recovered in a week. The russian stock index is already recovering and the ruble has been stable for a day. Putin is fine letting you think you are hurting Russia because it means we won't take any additional steps including sending troops. You are willing to believe it's working because your savior Biden isn't willing to do more.

https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=RUB&to=USD&view=12H

 

Great question. He obviously calculated that whatever goal he is after is worth more than whatever he would be losing.

 

Did he? Or has he become so powerful and feared that nobody tells him the truth anymore. Reports are he actually expected Ukrainians to welcome this!

 

Go ahead....move on the Baltic states.

Russia will be a footnote in history,after that.

 

You think America should send troops to Ukraine?

 

I think we should have already had troops in Ukraine but at this point we should encourage Sweden and Finland to send troops and offer NATO protection in Sweden while they fight in Ukraine.
If they don't Russia could come for them next and who will protect them then? More sanctions? Russia has been sanctioned for 20 years.

 

Well that would certainly escalate things.

 

Your making some vary BIG assumptions here.

The biggest flaw with sanctions is that while the will be effective (in terms of throttling Russia's economy) they take time to work and time is not something Ukraine has. That said if Putin seizes all of Ukraine there's no time limit on how long they can stay in place after that. So then it comes down to who blinks first. So far the west isn't blinking.

As for pressuring his allies to join the fight? Who China? They have zero skin in the game other than analyzing how effective the western sanctions are and more importantly how determined the West remains to keep them in place - in case they ever end up on the receiving end. Declare war on NATO because Russia wants them to? Why? They have far more to lose in such a war than Russia ever will. Russia's share of global trade is something like 1-2 %. China's is 15%. Why the 'F' would they risk trillions of dollars in lucrative trade for Russia, what do they get out of it? Increased trade between Russia and China? The EU area takes 70% of Russia exports in $ terms. China takes only 15%. And the other way? Even Australia buys more Chinese exports than Russia does. Russia's share is increasing but it will take time. And between the 3 of them the EU, US and China are the worlds largest trading partners. Russia is a blip in comparison. China's supposed to burn all that and risk getting caught up in a nuclear war for that?

As for invading the Baltic States? Approximately half of his armed forces (the best half) about 170,000 men out of the aprox 400,000 troops available are committed in Ukraine. To mount additional offensives Putin will have to either draw down on his remaining strength and get them into position and trained or, when Ukraine is over and done transfer whatever isn't stuck holding the place (and it will require a huge garrison) northwards. Well lets say ant units from the Ukraine war that aren't too run down and are still combat capable anyway. Meanwhile there's no way NATO won't notice the build up near the Baltic States and even in its current rundown state there will still be some opportunity to prepare, train and and restock if nothing else.

Russia might take the Baltic states but only at huge cost and only in the face of continued hostilities. And every week the sanctions go on the worse it's going to get for Russia. (Prepare to see more threats from him).

 

I think that this is what happened and I think that what we are going to see now is Putin suddenly announcing that since the two new Republics are now safe for their Russian populations Russian "peacekeepers" can leave the rest of the country alone

 

That would be the sane move. We are going to find out if Putin truly has lost his marbles or not.

 

They should all be attached to Putin....I agree.