Oh oh! Bad news for The Party of Trump: the country is doing well...

Prices are only a small consideration of IF “I” am better off. We are all living in the real world, not one of ginned up crisis. Created to keep by tRaitor tRump. And in spite of inflation our nation is doing better than any other.

 

Well, if you follow the several threads on the recent news of 4.9% GDP growth in the 3rd quarter, then you could actually come to the conclusion that Trump supporters do, in fact, not appreciate this good economic news. In fact, there seem to be a LOT of sour grapes.

 

No. I prefer to debate with people who can defend their points of view. Not referring to the people you mention, but I have debated in the past "experts" in many areas in which I'm not an expert and, while the large majority know their stuff... I've encountered a handful that can't answer questions. So if you agree with their point of view AND you feel you understand it enough to defend it, YOU make the case. But please don't start with a pre-canned line like "not everything is rosy". That kinda sets a binary tone to the rest.

 

Numbers beg to differ.

 

Oh, I see... so, in order to meet your criteria for what credible debate consists of, I should cut-and-paste extracts from the writings of experts like Jeff Sica and Larry Cudlow, state those as my shared beliefs, and then it's your function to sit on the sideline and snipe at the expressed opinions and evidence presented?

This process seems a little unnecessarily constipated, but for quite some time now I've observed that you like to control who says what, what is actually said, how 'what' is said, and then set your own standards for whether 'what' is said is even credible or not. It only remains to be determined whether your concept of discussion more nearly resembles kindergarteners having an argument, or, a Star Chamber proceeding....

Dismiss Jeff Sica, dismiss Larry Cudlow, dismiss numerous others who claim that our economy is on a perilous track (including 'nobody's' like me), but watch what some of the "experts" DO as a result of their analyses. Ever heard of Jamie Dimon? Is he what you would call an "expert"? If, indeed, actions-speak-louder-than-words, what is Jamie Dimon telling the financial world? Link: https://apnews.com/article/jpmorgan-dimon-bank-stock-8bf2366793488eed0c0b5327a7ad19a3 .

Why is he selling a million shares of JPMorgan stock beginning in January 2024?! Through all the combined stupidities and ineptness of both the Trump and Biden administrations, JPMorgan has done extremely well... so, why begin liquidation of one's holdings now? If, as the Brits say, "everything's just teats", then what's troubling the man who runs the nation's largest bank...?

Oh, wait -- you like cut/paste tracts? Here's a juicy one (with my emphasis) from Mr. Dimon:

"Dimon has also come to be considered a powerful and frank voice on Wall Street. He issued a sobering statement about the current state of world affairs and economic instability.

When the bank posted another blockbuster earnings report two weeks ago, Dimon warned, “This may be the most dangerous time the world has seen in decades.”

Dimon laid out a laundry list of major issues: the Russia-Ukraine War, the new war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, high levels of government debt and deficits, high inflation, as well as the tight labor market...."

Don't worry, though... Jamie Dimon probably doesn't know much of anything about the economy... right?

 

Holy crap, are you blind to the 70% of Americans who think the country is going in the wrong direction. Nobody who buys things believes the crap you spew.

 

No. In order to meet the forum's criteria, which demands that YOU make your case, and use references, quotes, links, cut-and-paste... etc.... to support YOUR case (not to make your case for you). Read forum rules, please!

Neither you considering forum rules "constipated", nor what I "like" are the topic of this thread.

If you don't agree with the experts, then defend what you DO agree with. But it has to be on topic.

I'm done with this. Let me know if you can comment on the topic. The economy under Biden shows signs of recovery from the Trump debacle that left us on the verge of a recession. The anti-Biden crowd is not going to like that. That's the topic. We were hoping for a "soft-landing" recession from Trumps blunders. That landing might be softer than we expected. And many Republicans are not happy that the country is doing better than they hoped.

Anything to say about that? Because THAT's the topic

 

While Republican politicians say nothing about these stats, Hannity is telling people that the economy has tanked. So I'd be surprised if many of the following even know the stats that have been coming out about the economy.

 

Is it? Try to sell your house right now. Or worse, try to buy one. Want to buy a car? Better have cash. How much are your groceries costing you?
Wake the f*** up, the gaslighting will NOT win you any votes.

 

Meh. I think most people simply don't care. They view the state of the economy through their personal lenses. And many are struggling.

 

The economy may not have tanked in any measurable way, people are measurably worse off. This is what matters to politicians chances of remaining in office. Most of this thread is mental masturbation.

 

So how are we to measure the economy going forward? If unemployment and GDP stats don't reliably represent the well being of an economy, what should we use?

 

Anyone saying that "the economy has tanked" is flat-out WRONG. It has not (NOT) "tanked"... yet! The 'perfect-storm' is still taking form, and in the links I provided in this thread earlier, you see the opinions of three of the brighter 'lights' that issue analysis and comments on the economy -- Jeff Sica, Larry Cudlow, and Jamie Dimon.

I'll add one tidbit that other experts tell us is definitely lethal to the "canary-in-the-coal-mine" when measuring dangers to any economy, whether caused by a Donald Trump, or a Joe Biden: national debt versus GDP!

According to the government, the U. S. national debt versus GDP in June 2023 was 121.6%.
Link: https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/united-states/government-debt--of-nominal-gdp#:~:text=United States Government Debt: % of GDP,-1969 - 2023 | Quarterly&text=United States Government debt accounted,Mar 1969 to Jun 2023.

Leading economists pinpoint that national debt which equals or exceeds 77% is definitely in trouble and headed down an often irreversible path!

"The higher the debt-to-GDP ratio, the less likely the country will pay back its debt and the higher its risk of default, which could cause a financial panic in the domestic and international markets."

Links:
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/debtgdpratio.asp#:~:text=Key Takeaways&text=The higher the debt-to,the domestic and international markets.

https://elibrary.worldbank.org/doi/abs/10.1596/1813-9450-5391#:~:text=The estimations establish a threshold,debt-to-GDP ratio.

Now, consider that today, all by itself, interest on the current national debt costs Americans far more even than our national defense budget! Link: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/america-now-paying-more-interest-113000593.html#:~:text=In the current fiscal year,billion in the same period.

Perhaps the most accurate thing one can say about Democrats crowing that "happy days are here again", is there's no truth that "the **** is about to hit the fan", just because the walls aren't splattered with it -- yet! My 'spider sense' is that the way things are going, by about the end of Q1, 2024, you'll be able to smell it from a block away....

 

Like all things, it depends what you are measuring for. As for politicians, whether the economy can be used as a weapon or albatross, depends on how voters perceive their well-being. I promise that no one who is struggling to put food on the table give two sh*ts what the gdp is.

 

So - again - what would you measure?

 

So - again - it would depend why I was measuring. Am I making decisions on raising interest rates? Making a large purchase? Starting business? Making any decision requires use of the correct metrics. As far as this thread is concerned, from the view of politicians, I think I made my point quite clear.

 

Yes! That's the point! Trump left the country in a mess. And Republicans managed to get the House, and expect to win in 2024 by convincing people that this was done by Biden. But if the economy starts improving as the effects of bidenomics START being felt by people... Republicans are not going to be happy. They would prefer the economy not do that.

It's all in the OP. Why do you quote it if you didn't read it?

 

I'm okay with the stats they report now. Don't know how the government could report on information specific to individuals' needs. I suppose we could publish the cost of a loaf of bread across the country...

 

Gini coefficient. A high GDP that benefits only the rich is not a good measure.

 

I think tracking income disparities is a great idea. But would it tell how well a country is doing, economically? Unless you are talking about mandated wealth redistribution, how could the government help?

 

I just love how Biden ran on a campaign of Trump doesn't take responsibility for anything and yet since Biden has been president, you guys never take any responsibility for anything. All bad things are someone else's fault. But, are things going well or not? Your team says things are going great and yet polling continually shows Americans think the country is going in the wrong direction. Are you now admitting that the country is going in the wrong direction and is NOT going well? That contradicts Democrat's message.

 

I think that is good news but the concern is with all the bad news. Each sides picks what works in their favor. Some problems are the FED trying to kill the economy with interest rates with not a bit of success except for higher borrowing costs. Home ownership has hit a brick wall over that. Government overspending which devalues the dollar is another issue. Runaway price increases are probably the one most people feel the most. We have an economy recovering from the covid mismanagement. There was ton of potential demand covered up in 2020 -2021 which began to appear last year. All government has to do it leave it alone and the economy will manage itself as it always does. I'm not a Trump supporter, though. I'm an America supporter.

 

By avoiding it like the plague.

 

he is definilty not doing the same as he did under Trump

under Trump the Republican run FED dumped trillions into the economy and kept interest rates low... the exact opposite under Biden

 

It is absolutely possible the Fed's relentless interest rate hikes will cause unemployment to rise and GDP growth to slow (it's what the Fed wants) markedly. Earnings estimates for GDP growth and S&P earnings have consequently come down. Powell & Co were late to recognize intransigent inflation a few years ago and now they'll be late stopping the rate hiking cycle.