21% of Those Tested in N.Y.C. Had Virus Antibodies

Coming from you that's priceless!

 

Uh,huh. Like I told you..no ones keeping you inside, you wanna get it have at it.
Go be Mr.hugs like that dude at the protest.

‘Quarantine fatigue’ has more people going outside, researchers find

Zhang said it was theoretically possible that people were going outside more while still maintaining the recommended 6 feet of distance from others and taking other precautions, such as wearing masks and gloves. But he cited news reports about people congregating at beaches and in parks as evidence that social distancing was not always happening.


Fort Greene Park in Brooklyn on Saturday, April 25, 2020. Research showed that in the last two weeks, more people were going outside, they were doing so more frequently and they were traveling for longer distances. (Andrew Seng/The New York Times)
It becomes harder to follow social-distancing guidelines, he said, “when people go out more and go to more places and stay there longer.”

The findings may be particularly troubling in the United States, the country hardest hit by the coronavirus pandemic. The number of known cases in the country has surpassed 977,200, with more than 50,100 deaths.

Experts have cautioned that there will be no imminent return to normalcy and that a return to communal life will most likely come in stages. Without adherence to social distancing, the virus could surge anew, experts have warned. A few states have moved in recent days to gradually reopen parts of their economies, but most Americans are still being urged to stay home.



https://www.chicagotribune.com/coro...0200428-bfiofglmejgc7e4zhptqahmsvi-story.html

 

then stay home, but we taxpayers should not subsidize your choice

 

I'm glad that people are defying unjust decrees from their overweight oligarch governor, but that doesn't change the fact that an ORDER to "shelter in place" is in effect across the entire state, and that numerous areas of social and economic life have been severely disrupted as a result. Pretending that people are free to do what they want without fear of consequence under the present conditions is beyond obtuse.

 

Not sure why. Every position I've ever taken has been in support of liberty, which is the opposite of fascism. Whereas you... wow. Just the biggest fascist around. Always siding with authority, with big government, with stomping on individual rights, and threatening to hunt others to extinction when they don't agree with your fascist ideology.

 

Again, coming from you and your posting history that's priceless.

 

To be clear.
24,000 deaths in NYC.
.25% in about 3/4 of a year.
Positive for antibodies about 26%.
Lets be generous and say herd immunity is 52%.
That would put the deaths for the country at around 1.6 million.

 

Good point but it isn’t fair to apply NYC case fatality rates to the rest of the country. Most places have a case fatality rate of 1-2%. New York State has a CFR of a bit over 6%. I haven’t run the numbers for the Big Apple but it is certainly way over 6%. So in the rest of the country, there would be far fewer deaths to get to the same percentage “immune”.

 

I agree. New York is a bad example to use for many reasons, lack of tests, lack of hospitals etc..
But in this case, and I haven't run the numbers either, we are talking about antibody testing.
So in this case we are talkin infection fatality rate which, from what I've heard is around .6%.

 

Yes IFR would be a better metric. But it’s harder to pin down a nation average without antibody testing (even with antibody testing if not using newer tests that detect the second wave of antibodies). The CDC best guess now is a .26%. IFR national average. So NYC is still more than double using IFR instead of CFR.

 

If we want to have this discussion we need the same dataset.

 

The problem is there is no data set. Back in September we discussed this subject and I made the case even IFR based on antibody (though much better than based on PCR) testing is not accurate because the antibodies detected by older tests fade and become undetectable. So in the past, antibody testing was missing a good share of previously infected individuals. (Also, there still seems to be a demographic that develops T cell immunity but doesn’t present detectable antibodies.) We have better tests now that detect the second wave of longer lasting antibodies, but as far as I know these tests aren’t being used to determine infection rates yet.

The CDC has an estimate of national IFR. Other organizations have differing estimates. If you know of some better way to estimate actual infections/infection rates than the CDC or what I offered in September I’m willing to look it over. But I’m unaware of any real data set. Just estimates based on trying to fill in the gaps left by tests with severe limitations.

But my main point stands I believe whether we use CFR based on PCR, IFR based on antibody tests, or deaths per million by population, people are more likely to die in NYC from C19 than elsewhere.

 

Because so many had the infection and never sought medical help, never made it into the statistics, the IFR is far lower than any official numbers.

 

We had over 1100 Covid deaths yesterday.

That's a mortality rate similar to WW2...

 

No, there is no need to review our past discussions because neither one of us can prove the point.
The point of my response to this thread was to dispute the claim of .01% death rate, which I think you would agree is an incorrect number.
But, on a side note, I did see CDC numbers putting NYC at 23.1% on April 25th.
That, if my math is correct, is about a 1% infection death rate.
Interestingly this number also works out to about 2 million dead to reach herd immunity.

 

An IFR of 0.01% is likely low.

I’ll trust your math. I don’t feel like looking up how many died in NYC anyway.

Do you know if the IFR has come down in NYC since spring? I’m assuming so but really don’t know. If that’s the case, we can’t use spring IFR to extrapolate the future. We know how to treat C19 much more effectively today (at least I hope so in NYC, nothing would surprise me).

As always, I’m not advocating for policy in pursuit of natural herd immunity. Just trying to ensure the correct information is available for everyone to make up their own minds. That information is sorely lacking from sources most spun up about herd immunity.

 

Yes, It does come down with age.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/commercial-lab-surveys.html
Just for grins I did Conn.
It comes in at 1.9% at it's peak.

 

Interesting. So Connecticut killed almost as many people per million population as NY with 1/4 the percentage positive for antibodies.

 

That's what it says.

 

The death rates by region still fascinates me. The narrative was that NY etc. lost so many because we didn’t know how to treat back then. But that doesn’t hold water when you figure we (in other states) shouldn’t have known any more than NY about treatment. Yet we didn’t have 6% case fatality rates.

 

Prob pop density, mass transit, big city pollution, that sort of thing.

 

Yes, those are some of the prime suspects. Even little things like over exposure to fluorescent light can mess up your immune system.

Certainly doesn’t make me want to move to a city!

 

I think it's the other way round.
Had we had the tests at the time, New York would have had many more cases.

 

American cities...

Some European cities are really nice places to live.

 

So would have everyone else, right?