6 Americans, 4 of Them Vaccinated, Test Positive for COVID After Royal Caribbean Cruise

I'm not and have not conceded anything other than that early point about when delta emerged and if it could have been prevented. But let's stick to the crux of the issue because you seem to ignore it whenever I say anything else. You say toxicity is decreasing, and I say you haven't proven that because of age differences from wave to wave. Why do you continue to not account for age differences from wave to wave? A couple posts back I explained how the spring (2nd) wave was expected to have a lower fatality rate based upon age alone in Alberta. And you ignored it. Do you know you're wrong so you choose to find other things to nitpick about?

 

That's pretty much irrelevant at this point in time. What is relevant is how many of the millions of vaccinated people are going to be infecting their fellow vaccinated comrades? Per the CDC, we already know that there are 35,000 symptomatic breakthrough cases each week, with 15 percent of the deaths being among the vaccinated.

At what point in time do we say we can't congregate amongst the vaccinated or unvaccinated for fear of being infected with covid? Is this the swamp the CDC has put us in? Or on a smaller scale, is it safe for 6 vaccinated people to be riding around in a car for a day without fear of a breakthrough infection? Where is our safe harbor?

 

Knowing that the current vaccines haven't met the expectations of the CDC or the general public, what makes you think the next vaccine will. I think you're working on less than an assumption, I think you're working on a hope and a prayer.

 

Currently, 15% of covid deaths are now among the vaccinated. So you may want to upgrade your talking points.

There are 35,000 symptomatic breakthrough cases each week, the presentation shows.

Up to 15 percent of deaths in May were among vaccinated people, the presentation shows. That contrasts with previous public CDC data showing deaths occur in a tiny number of vaccinated people, just 0.0005 percent.
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https://www.rollcall.com/2021/07/30/cdc-report-shows-vaccinated-people-can-spread-covid-19/

 

Who expected the second wave to have a lower fataly rate ? and what was the fatality rate of the second wave vs the first .. was the expectation correct or was it not ?

What would you like me to address - and how does the above have anything to do with Delta having a low death rate.

and quit accusing me of ignoring things - as that is what you have been doing .. I addressed the study you posted and every coherent claim that was relevant to delta .. You are projecting again because you have had it handed to you left right and center.

1) Any 8th grade student can look at the numbers and see the death rate for Delta has decreased in the locations discussed
2) Your claim about the vax risk of harm was "False" - my claim was true - by your own admission - even though you appear not to realize it.

Do you have anything other than falsehoods and desperate denial of realty - and even your own claims ?

 

We already discussed this in a thread about booster vaccines remember? They are showing very good efficacy.

 

What's worse? 15% of vaccinated dying or 85% of unvaccinated dying?

And it's 5 and 95%, not 15 and 85% for the under 50s, the age group that are being targeted by the delta

 

Doesn't have an awful lot to do with what I posted in reply to the op. It's quite obvious that the op was under the incorrect impression that vaccinated people cannot catch the virus, which seems to be a very common misconception among many people in the new world. I pointed that out. What the CDC does or says is none of my concern, don't live in the US and don't have time to follow the CDC on a daily basis, plus don't really care how 'merican authorities handle these things; tis up to them.

 

Sure they are. That's why 3 out of 4 infected out on Cape Cod last month had received the shots.

 

You did because you said the "toxicity" decreases over time. I also did because fewer old people were affected in the 2nd wave.

I'll try harder to show you my point here. Found everything through that Alberta link's sublinks:

https://www.alberta.ca/stats/covid-19-alberta-statistics.htm#severe-outcomes

So this shows in Table 6, on the right side there is the death case rate which is percent death by age group in Alberta. For 80+ it's actually 21.2% death, 70-79 is 7.2%, 60-69 it's 1.9%. Less than 1% below that, and less than 0.1% for the young.

Later on the page in Figure 16, it shows deaths per day. During the first wave, we see that there were about an average of 25 deaths per day at peak (go ahead and look for your own estimate, not going to pull out spreadsheets for this). During the 2nd wave, it's about 7 deaths per day on average. Early data on the last wave, but it's creeping up to 4 deaths per day and may continue to increase. (Edit: Yes, I did these estimates before plugging in the later equations.)

https://www.alberta.ca/stats/covid-19-alberta-statistics.htm#characteristics

And the above link is the one I showed before on case incidence by age, Figure 9. It's actually cases per day but averaged over 7 days. So we're going to focus on those who are 60+ now, because we saw from the death rates by age above that mortality is really driven by the old.

Peak daily cases by wave and age:
Wave 1: 204 at age 60-79, 85 at age 80+.
Wave 2: 138 at age 60-79, 12 at age 80+.
Wave 3: 40 at age 60-79, 10 at age 80+.

Now to use data from all of the above I have to combine the mortality rates for 60-69 and 70-79. The best way to do that is to use the age proportions from table 1 giving 30% weight to 70-79 and 70% weight to 60-69. (0.3*0.072+0.7*0.019) = 0.0349 = 3.5% mortality for 60-79.

So now we can see if age accounts for the mortality differences from wave to wave.

Expected peak daily mortality by wave given age distribution, compared to actual:
Wave 1: (204*0.035+85*0.212) = 25.16 deaths expected due to age distribution. Compared to 25 actual.
Wave 2: (138*0.035+12*0.212) = 7.374 deaths expected. Compared to 7 actual.
Wave 3: (40*0.035+10*0.212) = 3.52 deaths expected. Compared to 4 actual.

So this strongly supports my argument that differences in covid death rates in Alberta are almost entirely driven by the age distribution of those affected by each wave. The overestimate of death rate early on vs underestimate in the 3rd wave may reflect the increased virulence of delta, but I wouldn't say this analysis can prove that as well as the other COMPLETELY VALID article I showed earlier. I hope you're smart and humble enough to see I am right about this, but I know it's hard to admit when one is wrong.