A little chance to end the war soon ...

So I assume you think that the Gobi Desert is as valuable politically, economically, and militarily as Manhattan Island because of an "interconnected world"???

 

I don't see Russia as any threat to NATO.... none. Mice don't attack lions.

China and Russia have formed a TEAM. China is bracing the Russian economy by buying her products, especially oil. They conduct massive military exercises together. Countries only do that in expectation of fighting a common enemy together.

NATO protects western Europe. But it can't stop Russia from bleeding western war stocks with the current conflict. China appreciates that.

There is no similar organization protecting the Pacific region. There were some organizations (like SEATO), but they have been abandoned.

 

Losing Ukraine is inconsequential compared to losing Ukraine. Losing Ukraine would have little impact on the world economy and would not give any additional leverage to our enemies in their military endeavors.

Loss of Taiwan would cripple the world economy as well as giving tremendous leverage to our enemies from manufacturing to military power,

Are the publications you read influenced by the Ukrainian money sneaking its way into the Biden administration? Think about it.

WE will never establish a no-fly zone over Russia. That would bring on an instant STRATEGIC nuclear response. That's like Russi enforcing a no-fly zone over our east coast. INSTANT WAR. Only a terribly uninformed person would even suggest such a thing could happen.

 

That wouldn't stop him...he could try for a land corridor to Konigsberg....isolate the Baltics....there's still some Russian sympathies in those states.

Seems youve never dealt with Russians before.

 

The Russian military has proven to be totally incompetent in the Ukraine. The minute Russian forces invade NATO territory... they are done. And they know it.

 

They have also proven that they are willing and able to inflict mass destruction and civilian casualties, as well as to use their soldiers in human waves with little regard for losses, when they are over-matched militarily. And in a conflict with NATO, use of nuclear weapons would be on the table. How many might they be willing sacrifice on both sides to get their precious lost territories back? Last century's fascist imperialists likewise had no regard for the human costs of their war of aggression.

 

1) Thanks to the war in Ukraine Russia no longer has military capacity to invade Western Europe and hold ground (for long) anywhere along it's border with NATO. It doesn't have the armored forces, artillery, manpower or logistics capabilities left to invade even just the Baltic States, not without stripping its army in Ukraine of assets and even that would be insufficient for the task if the idea was to take and hold onto captured territory.

2) Thanks to Putin the Baltic Sea is now a NATO lake. As of now for all intents and purposes NATO lets Russia operate in the Baltic. Which means that if Russia was ever so stupid as to attempt what you've just proposed NATO could and would slam that door shut in their faces. End of story.

3) As cowed as they may be the Russian people wouldn't tolerate a war of aggression against NATO, certainly not while Russia is still bogged down in Ukraine! Putin knows this.

 

That's exactly it! No one pushed Ukraine away, on the contrary, they continued to cooperate with it until the last moment. And as for interference in the internal affairs of Ukraine, the United States is far ahead.

 

We don't interfere in Ukraine. We help them because they ask us to. You invade and kill them and try to take their land, their lives, even their children from them. See the difference?

 

...in terms of the BRI and China's reliance on strategic touchpoints in its supply/distribution channels then give me a reason it shouldn't be...you have to think in terms of what China does not have....what it needs...and how it gets it.
For example to sustain China's economy it needs fuel....Mongolia for example boarders both Russia and China....China needs gas...Russia has Gas....it's easier to supply gas though a pipeline than shipping it as LNG and building re-gasification facilities etc etc....Mongolia is an ideal route through which a gas pipeline will pass between Russia and China...so you tell me.

Manhattan Island is a commercial hub but not as important a commercial hub as London is for China or Frankfurt or Singapore for example. The US though does have a massive relationship with China to the extent of...what is it...$550Bn...something like that?? China has massively invested in their BRI program; throwing massive amounts of money around the world without any or little actual risk based assessements....it's using it's existing trading relationships to secure/attempt to secure strategic access to raw materials in order to de-stress existing supply options should they become problematic in the future. What do you think are the problems for China if their BRI investements don't function as planned...think in terms of it's demographics and the massive military expenditure. China has undertaken a massive capital investment in updating/upgrading and increasing its military might over the past 20 years....what is happening to its economy at the moment...what if the BRI investments go south....?? As you know 75% to 85% of military expenditure is used to maintain existing equipment.

These are just a few tiny pieces in the puzzle of China and its' stated capabilities....so going back to your comment which you thought was simply a f**king piss take....yes Mongolia is/can be/maybe just as important to China as Manhattan depending on the time or circumstances...

 

Of course he is. I doubt that its on him personally, the SPD as the whole left here is caught in neurosis and Stockholm syndrom with the Russians. Steinmeier, Schröder, Gabriel, I would guess Stegner at al. as well, they all have anti-American sentiments and were dreaming of an alliance against the US with Russia, Turkey eventually. Secretly they root for the Russians.

Scholz himself will not plus parts of the SPD dont do that as well, but he is always the unpassionate compromise of all these positions.

 

I never voted for SPD.

Any party that openly or indirectly embraces socialism repels me a lot. Today's socialists are still servants of Ruzzia, even though Pooteen-ruzzia has now become fascist.

 

BRI is a futuristic dream that may or may not happen. Control of more than 75% of the world's microchips is a RIGHT NOW key to bringing the world to its knees. Your 75%-85% of military expenditures sure doesn't apply to the American military. About half of the US military budget supports personnel... from salaries to retirements and VA expenditures. The US military also stays current... acquisition and R&D are biggies too.

 

yeah....it was kind of implying that...

 

By your standards, the USA shouldn't have started helping the UK with Lend-Lease in 1941. After all, there was nothing "essential" to US security in Europe. That shows how wrong your standards are.

That had nothing to do with Ukraine. It was about the US Navy. It's not the Navy sending stuff to Ukraine.

As a result, production was boosted. With Russia's army neutered, we don't need the full stockpile right now. Supply-wise, the USA is in better shape than we were before.

We had the best case scenario happen here. The weapons designed to destroy Russia equimpment were used to destroy Russian equipment. It cost us very little, since the stuff would have aged out if it wasn't used.

None of those links showed the military saying China was a threat the USA couldn't handle. That's your opinion alone. It doesn't make much sense. Now that the cheese-eating surrender-monkey Trump is gone, China knows the USA will back Taiwan. China doesn't want to conquer the ashes of Taiwan, they want Taiwan intact, and they know that's impossible with the USA backing Taiwan.

 

Do you need to see it in print before you understand that China really is a threat?

 

Germany was a clear and present danger to the United States. It had attacked and defeated Poland. It had attacked France, Belgium and Holland and been victorious everywhere. Russia can't fight its way out of a paper bag. It has suffered tremendous losses in Ukraine and made only minimal gains. A large part of its army revolted and threatened Moscow... a problem only solved by assassinating its leader. Iy can't even establish air superiority over Ukraine. Russia is no more a threat to NATO than Sri Lanka is a threat to the world.

America is depleting its stocks of Javelins and Stingers. Both of these weapons have "long lead item" components that cannot be quickly or easily replaced. We also are running short of 155mm and HIMARS rounds. None of these weapons are naval weapons... they are all ground force weapons.

It takes well over a year to replace these things. You don't just run down to ACE hardware and buy them. I have been involved with military acquisition for decades and answer your questions about this in detail. Just a few points...

By the way, we are SERIOUSLY running out of Stingers. The latest generation of Stingers is called Stinger RMP. We haven't bought any in awhile... they are being phased out and replaced with an improved version which adds a laser rangefinder. The old ones are not being replaced and the new ones aren't quite ready yet. No one foresaw this conflict.

We are so short on 155 rounds that we have had to cut back training with them in live fire at Fort Sill, home of the Army Field Artillery.

Here we are facing an imminent war over Taiwan and we waste our ability to wage war in Ukraine, which has little obvious value. Saying that we
are in better shape now" is patently absurd. This isn't "old stuff"... its brand new state-of-the art.

The only thginkn keeping China from swallowing Taiwan is that Biden reduces the United States every day in every way. Why attack as Biden continues to destroy us?

Using childish phrases like "cheese-eating surrender-monkey Trump" does little to enhance your credibility. Trump never surrendered anything, by the way.. that was Biden. And what's wrong with cheese? You don't like cheese?

 

That is not supported by what has actually happened:

1) Putin invaded with around 175,000 soldiers. Ukraine is a vast country with 45M people (well much less after Biden is done using them). No shot he intended to occupy the country.

2) Putin mentioned the geographic regions of interest, on day one, and for the most part, that is where the front has amalgamated.

3) If Putin wanted all of Ukraine, he would have taken it in 2014, before we built their army, and armed it, and especially after taking Crimea with hardly a shot fired, and ZERO response from NATO.

Your narrative doesn't make sense.

 

Imperialism is thinking that Aegis missile systems (which can be swapped from defensive to offensive operations, to include nuclear I believe, within 12 hours) were going to be set up 200-300 miles from Moscow, in the very corridor that has been used by Europeans, multiple times, to launch devastating invasions of Russia.

Imperialism is thinking the US Navy was going to be docking in Sevastopol, the primary Russian naval base since 1776, and thinking that Russia was just going to live under the thumb of the US, as we would have had the option to completely shut Russia out of the Mediterranean at the moment of our choosing, once our ships, soldiers, and tech was there.

 

#1) all 175000 are pretty much dead...the 175000 would've been a starting point to bigger adventures.

#2)....Mafiosi loses territory daily....sham referendums were a joke....an active insurgency 24/7

#3) Putler couldn't take Ukraine back in 2014.....he barely took Krym....Girkin couldn't find 1000 volunteers to do the RuZZkis dirty work.


Your 3 points qualify for the jokes of the day.

Congrats....collect your 100 rubbles and coupon for koosna tootchka.

 

The theory of US Navy docking in Sevastopol Krym isn't so far fetched now....US Navy will certainly be docking in Odessa.....as will other NATO vessels once Ukraine is NATO member.

 

Your arguments are always from the perspective "If Russia acted rationally and intelligent..." which I simply doubt. A professionally lead Russian army with the same firepower as the US army e.g. invading a Ukraine which was considered weak and with no support from its own population could have been successful with 175 000 soldiers. The US invaded Iraq with about 200 000 soldiers and it was an easy victory.

The problem is, Putin lost all senses for reality. He was warned by his own decret service chief, his answer was to humiliate and make fun of him in public. It turns out the warning was on point and Putin just proved by it he lost all senses for reality.

His own army is so far away from his ambitions where it should be, there are no words for that, he considered it on par with the US army, it turns out, it isnt even on par with the Ukraine, he for sure didnt have a picture of the weakness of his army (like almost the rest of the world who at least considered it to be far superior than Ukraine's army, even those who held the Ukraine's army in high esteem). He underestimated the professional level of the Ukraine army, he underestimated the willingness of the West to support und foremost he underestimated the moral of the Ukraine army and population to fight a Russian occupation.

I think the last point was the biggest failure, he really thought the majority of the Ukrainians would welcome the Russian occupation and a regime change.

In phone calls he was threatening and flexing, his army could be in Paris in two weeks if he wanted. In fact Poland alone without NATO support would be out of his league, as far as you can judge now.

 

I see the point, but you should take two points into consideration:

1. The Chinese will carefully watch the reaction of the US and the West in general in that conflict. As they act not completely irratinal like the Russians it begins even with the question if the US and the West in general are willing to make an embargo which will not only hurt the rival but also the own economy. Furthermore they will watch carefully if there is the willingness to give serious support against a nuclear power like Russia.

If they have the impression that the West will do neither of this, at some point it will be hard for you to give them a reason not to invade Taiwan (of course, there are other significant players like South Corea, Japan, and so on, but the US is a main factor).


2. I agree with your analysis of the Russian military potential, it is however a problem that the Russians cannot realitically see their place in this world. They are under the illusion they are the big rival of the West, while in reality they are only a vessel of China atm, a vessel China will consider more and more incompetent, which bring them into a terrible situation on the long run, Russia just doesnt realize. They consider themselves the leading power in this alliance, while they are just a vessel, which will more and more get into China's grip.

As long as they dont get a shock therapy, which makes them realize the true potential powers of all the global players, they will attack the West, thinking of himself as the global super power and China kind of a developing country, which supports it. Only this shock therapy contains any hope Russia could realize at some point it cannot afford to lead a long lasting war against the West.

 

agreed...the Ukrainians fought back...no plan survives first contact with the enemy....aka....bit of a bugger when people don't do what they're supposed to do.....

 

I agree completely about the relationship between Russia and China. China is the big boss. Russia may think it can attack the west, but if it attacks a NATO nation, its forces will be stopped cold. And that's just reality.