Americans aren't just waiting longer to have kids and having fewer once they start -- they're less likely to have any at all. The shift means that childlessness may be emerging as the main driver of the country’s record-low birthrate. Women without children, rather than those having fewer, are responsible for most of the decline in average births among 35- to 44-year-olds during their lifetimes so far, according to an analysis of the Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey data by University of Texas demographer Dean Spears for The Wall Street Journal. Childlessness accounted for over two-thirds of the 6.5% drop in average births between 2012 to 2022. While more people are becoming parents later in life, 80% of the babies born in 2022 were to women under 35, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s National Vital Statistics data. "Some may still have children, but whether it’ll be enough to compensate for the delays that are driving down fertility overall seems unlikely," says Karen Benjamin Guzzo, director of the Carolina Population Center at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. The change is far-reaching. More women in the 35-to-44 age range across all races, income levels, employment statuses, regions and broad education groups aren't having children. Women who do not have a child by the age of 40 are likely to remain childless. The number of American women over 40 who had no children was declining until 2018, according to Current Population Survey data, when it then began to rise again. Why Americans Aren't Having Babies, by Rachel Wolfe, The Wall Street Journal, July 7, 2024 (article available for free here for limited time) Probably the reason women "across all income groups" are not having children is either they are too poor and cannot afford to have children without a serious sacrifice in their standard of living, or for the women who do have more money, they are far too busy with their careers to be able to have time to raise children. The cost of housing is also extremely expensive in the areas that have higher paying career opportunities. With couples being unable to afford space, additional bedrooms and a yard, it is going to discourage them from having children. Also there is a shortage of affordable housing, so younger families cannot afford children. This would be expected to have a profound effect on the birth rates since it is typically younger women (between the ages of 20 to 30 ) who have children, not older women. related threads: Nearly half of U.S. women under 45 are childless (Economics & Trade, Sept 1, 2023 ) New York Times complains about lack of affordable "starter homes" (Sept 25, 2022 ) The fertility rate and the economy Trump: Biden's Mass Migration Is Skyrocketing Rents, Housing Costs (moved to 'Elections & Campaigns', June 8, 2024 ) Notice how the country's population has increased 2.5% in only one and a half years, between 2022 and 2024. Meanwhile the average birth rate is at only 1.62 births per woman. (Keep in mind anything below 2.1 would normally lead to population decline) So all of this population increase (actually more) is due to movement of migrants coming in from other countries. And a big part of the reason the birth rate is so low may be due to immigration, since with housing shortages and high housing costs, many people do not feel they can afford to start families. In 1960 the average fertility rate was 3.65 . By 1980 it was only 1.84 . That dropped even further down to 1.66 by 2021. Number of Children to Women Aged 40-44, 1980-2022 (bgsu.edu) In 2001, the average number of births for white women was 40% less than for Hispanic women in the U.S. U.S. Fertility Rates Higher Among Minorities | PRB
And then when their fun has run out (about the age of 32 or 34), there is not that much time (only a few years) before they find their uterus has shriveled up. related thread: Alex Youseff on Hookup Culture (posted in Women's Rights, Aug 6, 2022 )
the society that doesn't wish to procreate will be replaced by the society that does. That means social norms and values will get usurped by those from the culture that can procreate beyond a replacement rate. math.
No. Younger women and 10% of men are using dating apps. The other 90% of men are unsuccessfully trying to use dating apps.
I do not disagree, but they are still affected by the apps, even though women are shopping out of their range
My cynical side believes that the low birthrate is, in part, a reason the Right is pushing so hard to ban abortions (and birth control). Can't have that white population majority usurped by brown and black people!!
That actually would not really make sense, since it would probably not do much to change the racial ratio of the babies being born. I have, though, advocated in the past for a system where a woman would not be allowed to abort if there is a qualified family who commits to adopt the baby from that specific woman.
if Women's Birth control and abortion are banned, more men will just get fixed, maybe store their sperm in a sperm bank if they want kids some day
Nice thread. I don't think immigration is driving high housing costs or decreased fertility though. Not all countries with decreased fertility have significant immigration at all. I don't think "I want to have a kid but I'm too poor" is a common reason. People who are more educated and wealthier have fewer children. Getting married later is one reason. Lack of stability in marriages/relationships is another. Women pursuing careers more often is another. If they didn't have a career, then few ways to find meaning/purpose in life are better than having kids. Getting married later, relationship instability, and having a career lead to delaying trying to have kids. Fertility is much higher in young women. By 40 it becomes difficult to become pregnant naturally in many cases.
The graphs from WaPo show that delay in having kids is increasing, but it doesn't correlate well with home ownership. Millennials aren’t having kids. Here’s why. - The Washington Post
many men fear it, but those that have had it say it's nothing, doesn't change a thing for them, so as more get it, word spreads and more will get it
Not being a man, I guess I don't understand how men think too well. Can you please explain a little? Are you saying that men would be happy to spread their seed far and wide? And if so, what laws will be in place to ensure they support those children, far and wide?
