Assad gaining ground in Syrian civil war

BEIRUT (AP) — Forces loyal to Syrian President Bashar Assad have firmly seized the momentum in the country's civil war in recent weeks, capturing one rebel stronghold after another and triumphantly planting the two-starred Syrian government flag amid shattered buildings and rubble-strewn streets.

Despite global outrage over the use of chemical weapons, Assad's government is successfully exploiting divisions among the opposition, dwindling foreign help for the rebel cause and significant local support, all linked to the same thing: discomfort with the Islamic extremists who have become a major part of the rebellion.

The battlefield gains would strengthen the government's hand in peace talks sought by the world community.

Both the Syrian government and the opposition have said they are ready to attend a proposed peace conference in Geneva that the U.S. and Russia are trying to convene, although it remains unclear whether the meeting will indeed take place. The Western-backed opposition in exile, which has little support among rebel fighters inside Syria and even less control over them, has set several conditions for its participation, chief among them that Assad must not be part of a transitional government — a notion Damascus has roundly rejected.

"President Bashar Assad will be heading any transitional stage in Syria, like it or not," Omar Ossi, a member of Syria's parliament, told The Associated Press.

The government's recent gains on the outskirts of the capital, Damascus, and in the north outside the country's largest city, Aleppo, have reinforced Assad's position. And the more the government advances, the easier it is to dismiss the weak and fractious opposition's demands.

"Assad wants to go to Geneva with credit, not debit," said Hisham Jaber, a retired Lebanese army general who heads the Beirut-based Middle East Center for Studies and Political Research. "He is trying day after day to gain on the battlefield, and when he goes to Geneva he can say, ... 'OK, here's the situation — we are strong on the field. What do you have?'"

The government has made its biggest gains in the suburbs south of Damascus, where army troops backed by guerrillas from the Lebanese Shiite Hezbollah group and Shiite militants from Iraq have captured five towns since Oct. 11. The latest to fall was Hejeira, which army troops swept through Wednesday, just days after capturing the adjacent suburb of Sbeineh.

The troops were quickly followed by state television cameras eager to broadcast the victory: a two-starred government flag triumphantly planted amid bombed-out buildings, twisted rebar and rubble-strewn streets.

In northern Syria, Assad's forces have captured two towns this month — Safira and Tel Aran, southeast of the battlefield city of Aleppo — and have retaken a military base near Aleppo's international airport.

Aleppo, the country's largest city and former commercial capital, is a major prize in the war. Assad's military and the rebels have been battling over it since the summer of 2012, carving it up into rebel- and government-held areas and leaving much of the city in ruins.

In some ways, the recent run of government victories fit into the regular back-and-forth rhythm of the conflict over the past nearly three years, with the pendulum swinging in Assad's favor at the moment.

But the government advances around Aleppo hold greater trouble for the opposition since they suggest the rebels' grip on the north — much of which fell to anti-Assad fighters over the past year — is far more tenuous than once believed.

A confluence of factors has increasingly hampered the opposition's war effort in the north.

The rebels have been crippled by infighting since the al-Qaida-linked Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant aggressively pushed into rebel-held areas of the north this year. Fighters from the extremist group, most of them foreigners, have clashed repeatedly with more moderate rebel brigades, leaving scores dead on both sides.

Rebel groups, particularly the Islamic State but more mainstream factions as well, also have been engaged in a brutal side conflict with Syria's Kurdish minority, which has a large presence in the northeast and parts of Aleppo province.

Combined, these two wars-within-a-war have sapped the opposition's strength and undermined the effort to oust Assad.

They have also provided an opening for the Syrian leader to exploit.

"Fighting among ourselves has done a lot of damage," Abu Thabet, the commander of the Aleppo Swords Battalion, said by telephone. "Six months ago, the regime was always on the defensive and we would attack first. Now, after we started infighting, the regime is always on the offensive. They attack, and we defend." Abu Thabet spoke on condition he be identified only his nom de guerre to protect his security.

Rebels also have been frustrated by U.S. President Barack Obama's decision to seek a diplomatic path to disarming Damascus of its chemical weapons.

After an Aug. 21 chemical weapons attack on rebel-held suburbs of Damascus that killed hundreds, Washington accused Assad's forces of carrying them out — though his government denied it. The U.S. then threatened military strikes against Syrian forces. The strikes were averted when Russia brokered a deal to destroy Assad's chemical arsenal by mid-2014.

Many in the opposition had held out hopes that American military intervention — even if limited in scale — would help tip the scales of a deadlocked civil war in the rebels' favor. Compounding their disappointment, many rebels saw the diplomatic deal as a giving green light to Assad to continue killing people with conventional weapons, as well as effectively making the Syrian leader a partner with the international community at least until the arsenal is destroyed.

At the same time, the flow of weapons and ammunition from across the border in neighboring Turkey to fighters inside Syria has slowed to a trickle, rebels say, as Ankara has grown increasingly concerned about the prominent role of Islamic extremists.

"Support from the military council of Aleppo and its suburbs has stopped completely," said Abu Thabet, referring to the rebel body that coordinates the weapons flow from Turkey to rebel battalions doing the fighting.

"This has all stopped," he said. "I'm on the ground, I really don't know what's going on with Turkey or the council, all I know is that we're not getting anything."

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/assad-gaining-ground-syrian-civil-war

 

Stripping out the pro-Assad jargon and the misplaced belief that some kind of peaceful settlement can be made between the two sides, SG has posted a fairly factual OP.

 

Assad will retain control over Syria until the time comes when the amount of Chemical Weapons he will send for destruction does not add up to the number and quantity of Chemical Weapons we know he has.

At that point I will probably have to get back on a C-5B or C-5M awaiting instructions.

AboveAlpha

 

Syrian girl- Thank you for posting the article. I cannot imagine what would have happened if Assad lost. The massacres and genocides would have been horrendous, not that the U.S., France or Britain would have cared. I knew that all the arms supplying the rebels were coming in from Turkey as well as the Chechnyan terrorists who have been massacring civilians non stop, so if it back fires on Turkey we can say that Erdogan well deserves it.

 

Assad is our new BI#@&.

He can either do what he is told or be removed.

I am betting he will be removed eventually for not fulfilling his agreements with us.

AboveAlpha

 

This is a good sign It takes someone like Assad to run a place like Syria. "Democracy" is a speed pass to chaos in such a divergent society with competing militant factions, Iran's weapons underground railroad running through its black market, and irrational Israel always looking to start crap because they cannot reach Iran and must have someone to demonize they can reach.

 

I understand that various people will back and take the side of Iran or Israel or Syria....but they come to a conclusion upon what they believe based upon the media information or propaganda they receive.

Because of what I do....I can say I think all sides are a serious pain in the ass!!!

These idiots are going to keep on fighting and killing each other until someone forces them to stop....and the only country capable of doing this is the United States.

Now...personally....since I have had several times the unfortunate experiences of being a Babysitter for all sides I can tell you all sides.......WILL NEVER COME TO AN AGREEMENT FOR PEACE ON THEIR OWN!!!!

WE...are going to have to force a peace and I have been advocating this since 1988.

Assad is now our LITTLE BIT@# and as long as he does what he is told he can continue to rule Syria....but this is unlikely because we know Assad will NEVER give up all his chemical weapons so there will be a reckoning soon coming.

Israel is also a HUGE pain in the ass and although our ally we have to make it plain to them without our aid they would be screwed.

Iran....well Iran is at a point it has no choice but to cooperate but if Iran screws up....we will NOT allow them to build a nuke.

Some people here talk proudly and loudly about this Middle Eastern Country or that but the reality is at any time we choose the entire Middle East can become a U.S. Territorial Protectorate.

And no one should forget that.

AboveAlpha

 

Jihadis come from 80 countries into Hatay Airport in Turkey. They do not even hide or conceal anything. Their intention is known to everyone. They arrive and walk past Turkish customs. There at the airport, Jihadi Taxi awaits them to take them to fight in Syria.

CNN ran a report on it, and even they were surprised how obvious everything is. Nothing is hidden.. 50 meters from Turkish border, an Al Qaeda flag proudly flys in a Syrian village. That is why I blame USA for this. They have all the information and intelligence. They know thousands of jihadis and al qaeda members are using NATO territory to wage juihad. Oh come on, its obvious. Just like its obvious that Saudis and Qataris supply billions for the jihadis. Two of America allie in region too.

When chemical weapon attack happened , USA and CIA came out with info immediately, "Syrian Army launched it, ordered by Assad, Syrian Army 4th division launched the missiles, launched from this and that airport, launched by this commander".......... when they need to prove something, they have all the info. When it comes to jihadis creating a terrorist training center for al -qaeda in Turkey and Syria, they are suddenly clueless and dont know anything! This is all deliberate.

Chechens are using a city called Nice in France as a transition point for Chechen jihadis in Syria. They come to Nice first, there they are trained and given money to reach Hatay Airport. Can anyone seriously pretend that CIA and French intelligence are not aware. Of course they are!

 

Maybe, those who would remove him will look at recent history and realize what fills the power vacuum.
Even if democratically elected.
I mean wasn't the middle class Iraqi better off under Saddam Hussain than he is today?
Same for the Egyptian, etc.
It doesn't seem to me the Arab Spring improved anything for "the people". More like a mafia move.


Moi

 

Chechens are training in Nice?????????

10,000 Chechen refugees LIVE in France.

 

We enact and carry out plans in the interest of the United States.

That might seem a callous thing to say but it is true.

AboveAlpha

 

Crazy Islamist are not in the interest of
My guess is interests were better served by Saddam Hussain, Mubarak then the craziness that replaced them.
Hopefully a lesson taken before repeating it on Assad.


Moi
Heck, I bet Israel's interests were better served by the stability of those guys then their replacements.

 

and it is also a "transport point" for chechen jihadis traveling to Syria. They are given instructions , support and money in Nice to prepare them for Syria.

 

We had no control over the Arab Spring... and the status quo under Mubarak etc.. would have been just fine.

 

France’s intelligence service reported a significant spike in the number of jihadists who travelled to Syria to fight against President Bashar Assad’s regime, according to a report in the daily Le Monde.

John R. Schindler, a professor of national security affairs at the US Naval War College, analyzed the report on his blog The XX Committee, saying “A detailed new report in the Parisian daily Le Monde, based on sources inside France’s foreign intelligence service, paints a dire portrait of the rising number of Westerners going to wage jihad in Syria.”

According to French intelligence, Chechen Islamists are using Nice, where there is a Chechen community of more than 10,000 in southern France to travel to Turkey and into Syria.

http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Report-Spike-of-Western-Caucasus-jihadists-enter-Syria-329193

 

There is way more to it than just that.

AboveAlpha

 

How has the Arab Spring benefited the US or anyone else?

 

Since the U.S. Military's CENTCOM is closely tied to the Egyptian Military Leadership....CENTCOM directed the Egyptian Military Leadership to be prepared for the Muslim Brotherhoods attempt at replacing all of their Egyptian Mlitary Leaders and replace them with Muslim Brotherhood members.

This was stopped.

AboveAlpha

 

OK.. I see that.. Funny that Qatar backs them and KSA hates the MB.

 

Arabs cannot handle springs.. Only dark winters.

 

That is all well and good but New Yorkand LA get butt hurt anytime someone looks at Israel so there is no way the US can be the middleman when politicians wanting money from NYC and LA will always hold Israel on the US shoulders.

Beyond all that, the issue is what will happen to Syria if Syria is not ruled by an iron-fisted autocrat. Syria was the least homogenous nation to come out of the Ottoman Empire and it has a zero tolerance policy toward most of the groups out of necessity to avoid the nation collapsing into an unending series of civil wars, coups, and the like. If one wants Syria to function as a Nation-State, then they need to support whatever autocrat there is who can hold the nation together by whatever means they can. If one wants Syria to revert to being lines on a map where any and all terrorists can operate freely, then deliver unto them a "democratic" state.

 

Isn't it obvious by now that the main goal of the U.S foreign policy is the destruction of nation states not only in the Middle East but all over the world?

 

The issues that Syria present that are a problem are not so much specific to Hezbollah, Hamas and Islamic Jihad....it is to Iran's QUD'S FORCE.....which is a Iranian Military Division tasked with spreading the ideology of the Iranian Islamic Revolution around the world.

I have had the unfortunate task of interrogating such Qud's Force members and they tend to be more worried about what their own Leadership will do to them than what I will do to them.

Because of this I need not use violent and torturous techniques.

I have found is all I have to do is fly one of them and land on a U.S. Nimitz Class Carrier and from that moment on they turn into a Deep Well of Information.

AboveAlpha

 

Doesn't change that Bashar released hundreds of political prisoners and legalized the Muslim Brotherhood just to find himself in a Civil War with the US backing Islamist over a secular government in the name of "democracy". Islamist democracy is not in the best interest of western nations.

 

One pain in the ass at a time.

We still have a score to settle with Assad.....and the Syrian Rebels who are Extremists will be next on the list.

AboveAlpha