Joe Biden has a slim lead over Donald trump in a potential presidential contest between the two according to two recently released U.S.-wide polls, a stark improvement for the Democratic incumbent following the release of three national polls putting him behind the Republican frontrunner. The surveys, from pollsters Ipsos and YouGov, gave Biden a lead of between one and two percentage points, though a Newsweek analysis released earlier this month suggested trump is on track for a second White House term due to his stronger performance in key swing states.[source] While these three polls are sure to catch some off guard, most analysts have been saying as the nominees are chosen and people start paying attention the polls will start more closely resembling actual sentiment instead of just picking up on very loyal voters. trump is losing to women — no surprise as he is responsible for stripping their right to bodily autonomy and is directly responsible for women and raped children having to flee states that are threatening to incarcerate them. Biden is winning with the college educated including those with advanced degrees — obvious reasons as well as younger voters that have the most to lose due to “kick the can down the road / no policy” of the right. trump is winning with the undereducated and white men (as well as christian nationalists). Shocker While these results are in the margin of error it is a 3-5 pt flip from prior polling.
I've been asking and waiting to hear answers on who Trump will gain as voters since 2020. The following may be loud and strongly convicted in their loyalty, but they still don't have the numbers to beat Biden. So who is Trump luring to his camp from Biden's? And what about the fall off of voters who voted for him in 2020 but won't in 2024?
I don’t see what demographic he has pulled to his side. Bragging about being a dictator and walking in on children getting dressed while pushing for them to be forced to have their rapists child can only be appealing to so many people.
That is good news for Biden, but at this moment, I believe Trump has the advantage should they go head to head. We are just over 9 months away from deciding. Neither are popular.
It was CLEARLY visible at the end of Paragraph 2. The surveys, from pollsters Ipsos and YouGov, gave Biden a lead of between one and two percentage points, though a Newsweek analysis released earlier this month suggested trump is on track for a second White House term due to his stronger performance in key swing states.[source] <---
I know what a goof i am. Was up really late last night drinking champagne on my yacht, eyes are still a bit fuzzy.
If trump seems to be as popular or slighty more than Biden, does that mean A. Americans love junior hitlers wannabe authoritative dictators Or B. Americans dont believe left wing rhetoric?
Unfortunately, I think there are enough independents who will look back at 2017-2019 with rose colered glasses, who will vote for Trump over Biden. It really all depends on the economy between now and November. If there is a recession, as Trump hopes, Trump will win. If the economy keeps moving along, the stock market keeps gaining, gas prices remain stable, and inflation goes back to the 2-2.5% annual rate, I think Biden has a chance. Those are big ifs.
Depends on who you ask. But if you have been paying attention, Trump supporters are more likely to want a tin plated dictator that he seems to want. https://thehill.com/homenews/campai...ump-will-act-like-a-dictator-if-elected-poll/ https://time.com/6550686/trump-autocracy-dictator-polling/
what it will really come down to is how many dems get out to vote, all republicans always get out to vote, dems are not as reliable at getting out to vote people were stuck in their houses, so voting was something to do, they could vote by mail, made it easy.... will as many vote in 2024, yet to be seen
I'm saddened to think that there are Americans who would vote for a man with the character (or lack thereof) of Trump. He has shown us who he really is...over and over again. Yet people either refuse to see it or just don't care.
Polls are funny, aren't they? If they say something one likes, they're good, if not they don't. I don't really pay much attention to polls, especially this far away from the actual election, but I would like to point out something. Many polls have been posted on this forum that show Biden with low approval rating numbers. That would seem to indicate he wouldn't do well in an election. However, there are probably many out there who would give Biden low approval ratings but vote for him in a contest with Trump, as many like Biden at least a little more than Trump, so they are deceptive. As the election gets closer, Trump's legal issues will have more clarity (he may even have been found guilty in some by election time) and I believe the economy will hold up and look at least decent before the election, so IMO Biden would beat Trump in an election. I personally would like to see two different candidates in November, but if it's Trump vs. Biden, I'll vote for Biden since, IMO, Trump should be disqualified and does not deserve to be President again.
Yeah he pull off an upset then. I did read Trump also gets a1% boost with people that are in the unlikely to vote category. Hence why the traditional stats were bucked by Trump.
As I have said before, polls don't tell us who is ahead in a race. What they do tell us is what the tendency is. So always watch who is going up and who is going down. Still too early for even THAT to be of any consequence for November. But it's now that tendencies do start to show. If, in reality, Trump was ahead for more than what polls showed, he is probably still ahead. If he was below, he is farther behind. The tendency is what we need to look for. But we need to keep in mind that we don't know the starting point. ANY starting point you wish to use is almost certainly WRONG.
People who have come to hate Biden enough that they will vote against rather than for him, even if they dislike Trump. That list has been growing quickly lately.
I think the majority of people who will vote Trump this time around won't do so because they like him, but because they dislike Biden more. I think the same about most who will vote for Biden. This is a race to the bottom. I also think that anybody else in each party could beat Trump or Biden and that if either drops out then their party will win (unless both do).
As od this morning RCP has Trump up 1.6%, Haley up .4% and DeSantis down .4%. As you observe it's still a long road to November.
yep, many thought Hillary had it in the bag, thought the right would not support someone as immoral as Trump - so did not bother to vote - mistake, let's hope they learned from that Trump only won by a few thousand votes in key swing States
I don't have the same confidence you have. Like in 2016, a low turnout, which is quite probably with these two unpopular candidates, would give Trump the edge. We also don't know if a 3rd party could emerge to shake things up further.
