Has the Global Temperature Trend Turned to Cooling?

The average for a month seems like a reasonable definition for "hottest month." Maybe you are thinking of "hottest (month) day" or "record hottest temperature for (month)."

 

I would certainly agree with that. However, that is not what I am referring to here. Please see #346, and the immediate post above it, #345. Essay posted by OP lambasts LA Times for saying March was the 17th warmest (on average) in the US record, then goes on to show data from NOAA where March ranks 21st in the US measured by highest temp recorded. I do not understand this criticism, or how OP can defend it.

NOAA themself appears to use average when describing warmest months. Ex:

https://www.noaa.gov/news/march-wrapped-up-nations-5th-warmest-10th-wettest-year-so-far

 

Post #445 stands on its own, as does the Hamlin article. I make no claim that it is consistent with anything else. Hamlin's point is straightforward.
"The Times article claim that March was the “17th warmest in the 130-year data record” is incorrect because that claim it is based on the Average versus Maximum NOAA Temperature data for the Contiguous U.S.

The Times continues to mischaracterize “average temperatures” instead of “maximum temperatures” in claiming “warmest“ and “hottest” temperature outcomes as they did regarding their flawed claim that the summer of 2023 was “The Hottest Summer Ever” as addressed here."

 

Then Hamlin's point is wrong. The LA Times very clearly state they get that "17th warmest" figure from the averages. It is the same way NOAA characterized the month in their own summary.

LA Times:

NOAA:

How is that mischaracterized?

Also:

I read this as you indicating Hamlin's method is a standard. Are standards not consistent? Where is this standard defined? Who uses it?

 

I read your post as willful misunderstanding. "Hottest" is a standard as in Good, Better and Best. If the claim is "hottest" then the appropriate measure is against other "hottest" measures.

 

Yes. They cherry-picked a data stream to conform with their preferred narrative.

 

Count this scientist as in the "cooling" camp.
“New Ice Age Has Begun,” Astrophysicist Warns…Due To Reduced Solar Activity
By P Gosselin on 23. April 2024

Due to changing solar activity, the Earth is heading into a new Little Ice Age, according to Northumbria University astrophysicist Prof. Valentina Scharkova, Newcastle, Great Britain.

“There’s nothing we can do about it.”

This was reported by German online Report 24 here last week.



NASA image of a blizzard. Image soutce: NASA, public domain.

“This is due to the changing solar activity, she explains. Only uneducated people could call for a reduction in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere,” according to Report 24 here.

As the media is full of reports about record temperatures, the elevated readings likely have a lot to do with thermometers being placed increasingly in urban heat absorbing areas. The recent warming has very little to do with carbon dioxide.

“CO2 is not our enemy,” says Professor Scharkova, who was born and educated in Ukraine.

“We in fact have a CO2 deficiency in the world, and it is three to four times lower than the plants would like,” says Scharkova. On geological terms, over the last 140 million years, CO2 in the atmosphere is at really near record low levels.

“140 million years ago, it was estimated at 2,500 ppm, or about six times higher. And this also meant a greener and more biodiverse world, according to the professor,” writes Report 24.

“We don’t need to remove CO2 because we would actually need more of it. It’s food for plants to produce oxygen for us. The people who say CO2 is bad are obviously not very good at universities or wherever they studied. Only uneducated people can come up with such absurd talk that CO2 should be removed from the air,” Professor Sharkova tells Report 24.

Scharkova estimates the Earth’s average temperature will fall by one degree Celsius over the next 30 years and not rise. She says that the sun’s lower solar activity will lead to cooling.

Report 24 quotes Scharkova: “I only feel sympathy for the people who have invested in solar systems,” says the professor. “During the Maunder Minimum, there were years when there was no summer at all – there was a brief spring, then fall, then winter again. And if there’s snow on your solar panels or the sky is cloudy, they’re useless.”

“Whatever we do on Earth, we can’t change the orbit of the sun and the big planets like Jupiter, Saturn, Neptune and Uranus,” she explains. “There’s nothing we can do about it.”

Read entire article (German) at Report 24.

 

Nonsense. They literally took the paragraph directly from NOAA and rewrote it. The link to the NOAA write-up they got this from is directly in the LA Times text (link and all copied exactly from the Times into post #454). Hamlin is being dishonest or ignorant by not even mentioning the Times gets this paragraph directly from NOAA. If his problem is the methodology, he should just be blaming NOAA directly. Which calls into question why he's even using NOAA data to try and disprove NOAA's write-up.

The very obvious solution to this quandary is that NOAA always uses averages to describe the previous month (like a, umm... a standard), and the LA Times has writers that just regurgitate this information without digging further. But I'm sure this just goes to proving NOAA is also biased. Must be why their Feb write-up declared Feb to be "third-warmest February recorded". If only they had known that using averages is so biased, and instead used honest old Maximum temperatures. Then they would have more accurately declared Feb to only be the "second-warmest February recorded".



You know, when I started looking over this thread I had the most insane idea when I read the following:

I thought maybe, just maybe for once, finally I found someone on this forum interested in discussing data. Crazy thought right??

How foolish. I should know better by now.

 

Yes, and . . . ?
Hamlin's point is that the claim of "hottest" should be based on a "hottest" measurement, not an average. Both were available to NOAA and the LA Times. They chose what they chose. He objects. That's it. The important question is not what are the data, but why was that editorial choice made?
In fact, as pointed out by Hamlin, if the data presented were maximum temperatures rather than average temperatures then the narrative would have been about falling temperatures rather than rising temperatures.

 

That's the relevant point: by cherry-picking the basis of comparison, you can almost always concoct a "hottest" narrative. That's in addition to the absurd, bald lies like "hottest ever," when the most that can be claimed with any credibility or honesty is, "hottest since the coldest 500-year period in the last 10,000 years."

 

She claimed cycle 25 would be quiet, but so far it has turned out more active than most previous cycles, hence the record temperatures. Until she can make reliably accurate predictions of solar activity, I'm not signing on with her theory.

Although they are much more massive, the orbits of Uranus and Neptune have less tidal effect on the sun than Venus and earth because they are so far away.

As for what we can do about climate, our options are not limited to changing the orbits of major planets. If we really needed to, we could make substantial changes to the earth's albedo.

 

NWS seems to think otherwise.

Solar Cycle 25 is forecast to be a fairly weak cycle, the same strength as cycle 24. Solar maximum is expected in July 2025, with a peak of 115 sunspots.

Hello Solar Cycle 25 - National Weather Service

 

They did.

It was.

You didn't notice that item was datelined September 2020, nearly four years ago? The sun suddenly and unexpectedly became very active just two years ago, which, along with El Nino and the Tonga volcano, gave us our recent record-breaking temperatures.

 

My apologies for the oversight.

 

Here's more exaggerated climate flapdoodle from the LA Times.
L A Times Editorial Claim that “The planet is experiencing a horrifying streak of record-breaking heat” is Unsupported by NOAA’s Climate Data
Larry Hamlin
This L A Times hyped claim of global “horrifying streak of record-breaking heat” is falsified by NOAA’s 129+ yearlong measured climate data outcomes as measured over 9 of 16 NOAA’s…

 

And despite "polar amplification," arctic sea ice extent is somehow the same as it was 80 years ago...

 

El Nino effect still being felt.

UAH Global Temperature Update for April, 2024: +1.05 deg. C
May 2nd, 2024
The Version 6 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for April, 2024 was +1.05 deg. C departure from the 1991-2020 mean, up from the March, 2024 anomaly of +0.95 deg. C, and setting a new high monthly anomaly record for the 1979-2024 satellite period.


The linear warming trend since January, 1979 remains at +0.15 C/decade (+0.13 C/decade over the global-averaged oceans, and +0.20 C/decade over global-averaged land).

 

It's cold down south.

-80°C: Antarctic Vostok Station Records “Extreme Winter Cold”…Not Even Winter Yet!
By P Gosselin on 8. May 2024

German weather site wetteronline.de reported “extreme winter cold” in Antarctica as the mercury plummeted to “almost minus 80 degrees Celsius” on April 29, 2024.


Image: NASA

And it’s not even winter yet.

Hat-tip: Heinz

“On April 29, almost minus 80 degrees were measured at the Russian Vostok research station. Such extreme cold is rarely reached this early in the year,” reported wetteronline.de.

The record, -89.3°C, was recorded in the middle of winter, on July 21, 1983, thus making the last week’s late April reading very unusual.

“Values below minus 80 degrees in April are also extremely rare at the Earth’s cold pole and have only been recorded three times in the last 60 years,” wetteronline.de adds.

 

The current interglacial may be ending. Here comes the snow.
Cycles in Earth’s Climate – Part 1: The Trend Setters
Richard Willoughby
The last 7kyr has been a relatively benign period in Earth’s climate with minor excursions in sea level and surface temperature compared with what will be observed over the next…

 

More evidence for a cooling trend -- from NOAA.
NOAA’s Latest Climate Data Shows the Global Land Region Temperature Anomaly Peaked in February 2016 Over 8 Years Ago
Larry Hamlin
NOAA’s April 2024 climate report missed very significant climate outcomes and analysis as provided and discussed above with these results clearly reflecting that the world is not facing a climate…

 

Cooling on display.
New Study: China’s Loess Plateau 7-8°C Warmer Than Today For Much Of The Last 4000 Years
By Kenneth Richard on 27. May 2024

Scientists refer to the Middle and Late Holocene’s much warmer and wetter regional climate as “favorable,” “optimal” and “the best.”
New research from a Loess Plateau study site identifies mean annual temperatures as 9.86°C today, while annual precipitation averages 531 mm. These values are shown to be among the coldest and driest of the last 5000 years.

In contrast, for the period extending from 2700 years ago to the last few centuries the mean annual temperatures were 17.02°C. This is 7.16°C warmer than present. The mean annual precipitation was 903 mm for this Late Holocene period, which is about 70% higher than today’s.

From about 4700 to 3900 years ago there were periods when mean annual temperatures varied up to 18.46°C, which is 8.6°C warmer than present.

The authors of this temperature and precipitation reconstruction note that the naturally warmer and wetter Middle and Late Holocene millennia were “the best,” most “favorable,” and “optimal” climate period when compared to the drier and colder climates of recent centuries.



Image Source: Guo et al., 2024

 

El Nino has left the building.
UAH Global Temperature Update for May, 2024: +0.90 deg. C
June 4th, 2024
The Version 6 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for May, 2024 was +0.90 deg. C departure from the 1991-2020 mean, down from the record-high April, 2024 anomaly of +1.05 deg. C.


The linear warming trend since January, 1979 remains at +0.15 C/decade (+0.13 C/decade over the global-averaged oceans, and +0.20 C/decade over global-averaged land).

 

Human activity may pause the cooling.

Almost All Recent Global Warming Caused by Green Air Policies – Shock Revelation From NASA
BY CHRIS MORRISON
Fewer fuel particles injected into the atmosphere reduce cloud droplet density and this leads to clouds that reflect less solar radiation back into space.

"The world of climate science is in shock following [link -->] extraordinary findings [<-- link] from a team of high-powered NASA scientists that suggest most of the recent global temperature increases are due to the introduction of draconian fuel shipping regulations designed to help prevent global warming. The fantasy world of Net Zero is of course full of unintended consequences, but it is claimed that the abrupt 80% cut in sulphur dioxide emissions from international shipping in 2020 has accounted for 80% of global warming since the turn of the decade. Although the extra heat is described as “transient”, the warming is extraordinary and is expected to rise during the 2020s at a rate of 0.24°C a decade, 20% higher than the claimed warming trend since 1980.

The news is likely to cause considerable concern among the mainstream climate hoaxers in media, academia and politics. They have had a field day of late by pointing to rises in temperature as evidence for their evidence-free prediction that the climate is in danger of imminent collapse. But the NASA scientists, working out of the Goddard Space Flight Centre, predict a trend of rising temperatures due to the IMO2020 regulations going forward, and state, “the 2023 record warmth is within the ranges of our expected trajectory”.

The science behind the NASA findings, which have been published in Nature, is simple. Fewer fuel particles injected into the atmosphere reduce cloud droplet density and this leads to clouds that reflect less solar radiation back into space. As the scientists note: “IMO2020 effectively represents a termination shock for the inadvertent geoengineering experiment through a reverse marine cloud dimming through reducing cloud droplet number concentration.” In the course of their work, the team calculated large particle reductions in major shipping routes in the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea and the South China Sea. . . ."

From the paper itself:
In summary, IMO2020 represents a termination shock for the inadvertent geoengineering by global ship emissions through a reverse MCB and produces a positive forcing of + 0.2 ± 0.11 Wm−2. It is expected to provide strong additional warming rate this decade, more than doubling the long-term mean warming rate. The forcing has pronounced spatiotemporal heterogeneity. The IMO2020 effect also contributes to a strong temporary increase to the planetary heat uptake through cloud dimming, and it is around 80% of the measured increase in interhemispheric contrast of absorbed solar radiation since 2020. Our results offer useful guidance for MCB and aerosol-cloud interaction research.

 

Cold summer in Europe.
Summer Refuses To Appear Over Much Of Europe…Snow Disrupts Tour De Suisse
By P Gosselin on 12. June 2024

Where’s summer?
Glaciers in German Alps get a boost as winter appears in June. Image: Zugspitze webcam shot, June 12, 2024 ca. 9 pm.

By Klimanachrichten

The German DWD Weather Service is asking itself the this question and has no summery prospects until mid-June 2024.

The unsettled, sometimes very wet and predominantly cool weather of the last few weeks will continue in the coming days. But when is an end to this general weather situation in sight and where in Europe is there currently bathing weather with summer temperatures? The general weather situation in Europe has been pretty entrenched for weeks. A constantly regenerating high-altitude trough over western and central Europe has ensured a cool and sometimes very wet weather phase. Over the past few weeks, this has led to precipitation in some areas, some of it heavy, which led to flooding in the south and south-east last week, as well as in the south-west in May.

At the weekend, a weak intermediate high pressure system ensured stable and warm early summer weather, at least in some areas. Yesterday, the summer mark of 25 degrees was reached or just exceeded in some areas, especially in the south and east in the lowlands. The front-runner was Simbach am Inn with 28.4 degrees. But even that will be over again in the coming days. The reason for this is a new extended high-altitude trough, which is gradually spreading from Scandinavia to Central Europe. Another wave of subpolar air will flow into western and central Europe on Tuesday. This will cause temperatures at 850 hPa (around 1.5 kilometers above sea level) to drop below 0 degrees in some places, meaning that highs in large parts of northwestern and central Europe will mostly be below 20 degrees in changeable weather conditions.”

1. The cold weather also has an impact on cycling. The Tour de Suisse has to be changed because some passes are still not free of snow. Nau.ch:

“The sixth of eight stages of the Tour de Suisse with finish in Blatten-Belalp has to be shortened. The stage that was originally planned as the queen’s stage will start on Friday, June 14, at the Goms Nordic Center in Ulrichen and will not cross any Alpine passes. Originally, the stage should have led from Locarno over the Nufenen Pass, which at 2421 meters above sea level would have been the roof of the tour, into Valais. However, because the heavy snowfall made it impossible to cross, an alternative route via the Gotthard and Furka passes was considered.”

We recently reported on the snow situation in the Alps.

 

Headed back downhill.

UAH Global Temperature Update for June, 2024: +0.80 deg. C
July 2nd, 2024
The Version 6 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for June, 2024 was +0.80 deg. C departure from the 1991-2020 mean, down from the May, 2024 anomaly of +0.90 deg. C.


The linear warming trend since January, 1979 remains at +0.15 C/decade (+0.13 C/decade over the global-averaged oceans, and +0.20 C/decade over global-averaged land). . . .