Has the Global Temperature Trend Turned to Cooling?

NOAA U.S. Contiguous USCRN Temperature Anomaly September 2023 Data Shows No “Climate Emergency”
Guest Blogger
NOAA’s September 2023 contiguous U.S. temperature anomaly USCRN data result does not support alarmist propaganda claims of a “climate emergency”. . . .

 

El Nino topping out.
UAH Global Temperature Update for October, 2023: +0.93 deg. C
November 2nd, 2023
The Version 6 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for October, 2023 was +0.93 deg. C departure from the 1991-2020 mean. This is slightly above the September, 2023 anomaly of +0.90 deg. C, and establishes a new monthly high temperature anomaly record since satellite temperature monitoring began in December, 1978.


The linear warming trend since January, 1979 still stands at +0.14 C/decade (+0.12 C/decade over the global-averaged oceans, and +0.19 C/decade over global-averaged land).

 

Watts Up With That?

Dr. Jim Advises Panic

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach

Excerpt:

I see that my favorite serially failed climate doomcaster, Dr. James Hansen, is at it again. Accompanied by his usual Greek chorus of co-sycophants, he’s written a new paper entitled Global warming in the pipeline, by James E Hansen, Makiko Sato, Leon Simons, Larissa S Nazarenko, Isabelle Sangha, Pushker Kharecha, James C Zachos, Karina von Schuckmann, Norman G Loeb, Matthew B Osman, Qinjian Jin, George Tselioudis, Eunbi Jeong, Andrew Lacis, Reto Ruedy, Gary Russell, Junji Cao, and Jing Li.

The press release quotes Hansen as follows:

LINK

==================

Yep the paper is truly bad as it was a model construct while ignoring the actual data showing specific patters of acceleration and deceleration over the last 120 YEARS as pointed out in the link with a nice chart.

 

It's weather, not climate, but . . . .


Unstable Models: NOAA Substantially Cools Its December Mean Temperature Forecast For Europe
By P Gosselin on 25. November 2023

2°C downward correction

Overall the NOAA had been forecasting a very mild winter for this year. But that forecast has been cooled down a bit, at least the early part of the winter.

The NOAA’s latest GFS run has substantially cooled the temperature outlook for December. In its earlier projection, it saw December in Europe coming in 1 to 2°C warmer than the long-term mean:



But using the latest available intimal conditions, the NOAA has a completely new mean temperature forecast for December 2023:



The December projection for Europe as whole comes in almost 2°C COOLER. That’s quite an impressive correction.

So unstable are models that attempt to look into the nea5r future of a chaotic system that they know far more little about than they like to make the public believe.

Hat-tip: SnowFan here.

Currently the GFS foresees “extreme cold wave around St. Nicholas in Central Europe,” reports Snowfan. “Now also the German DWD sees lots of snow. Analysis: With -20°C extreme frost on the Zugspitze and -27°C in NE Europe. ECMWF and GEM remain with plenty of snow in Germany at the beginning of December 2023. DWD: Snow low pressure “OLIVER” is on its way to Germany. ECMWF remains with early winter cold wave in Central Europe until well into December. NCEP remains with increasingly wintry cold in large parts of Europe.”

But, as the NOAA longer term weather forecasting has shown, there’s always a great amount of uncertainty. Anything under 5 days can be considered a forecast, and everything beyond 10 days is just weather speculation.

 

DR. Mass explains why The National Weather Service (NOAA) is an inferior weather predicting agency.

Who Produces the Most Skillful Weather Forecasts?

November 17, 2023

Excerpt:

You have your choice of sources of weather forecasts on various smartphone apps and web pages.

Where can you get the best forecast? (other than this blog, of course )

One service, Forecastadviser.com, evaluates predictions from many weather outlets, including the National Weather Service to the Weather Channel (Weather.com).

Consider the scores for the last year (2022) for Seattle considering 5-day forecasts. The Weather Channel is number one, followed by Accuweatther. The National Weather Service is way down the list!.

LINK

========

He explains why they have a low rating in the link.

 

It's colder than ever in Antarctica.
New Antarctic All-Time Cold Record Flies in the Face of Media Reporting
Anthony Watts
It has been a busy year at the bottom of the world, from hot to cold with climate change in the middle of it all for the blame by media.…

 

Lots of cold in lots of places.

Increasing Cold, Snow Cast Doubt Over Claim Of Rapid Warming As North Freezes
By P Gosselin on 28. November 2023

EIKE Cold Report No. 33 (excerpts)
By Christian Freuer, Electroverse

Europe’s best start to a ski season in a long time

Contrary to mainstream groupthink, reality is once again smacking climate alarmism in the face.

Recently, ski resorts from the French Alps down to the Italian Dolomites reported almost a meter of fresh snow, resulting in a historically early start to the European ski season.

And the forecast sees much more through early December.

Absurd notions that Europe’s favorite winter sport is a thing of the past have suffered a setback after temperatures across the region fell off a cliff in November, back to a “crisp climate like in the 1990s,” reports goodnewsnetwork.org.

Fukuoka, Japan, sees earliest snowfall in 40 years
On Sunday, November 19, Fukuoka Prefecture on the northern coast of the Japanese island of Kyushu experienced early snowfall.

Record cold and snow in recent weeks in East Asia – namely in northeast China, Mongolia and eastern Siberia – has now crossed the Sea of Japan and brought exceptionally early snowfall to the north of the country.

According to the Japanese Meteorological Agency, the earliest snowfall since November 1983 was recorded in the city of Fukuoka.

Two fatalities caused by a snowstorm in Bulgaria
A drop in temperature, strong winds and heavy rain/snow caused severe damage across much of Bulgaria on Sunday, disrupting power supplies and claiming at least two lives.

Eastern Bulgaria was the worst affected and residents said they had never experienced such extreme weather.

A state of emergency was declared in the Black Sea city of Varna as the torrential rain turned into heavy snowfall and blizzards.

30 cm of fresh snow in California
It snowed heavily at higher altitudes in California over the weekend, with over 30 cm of snow accumulating in the mountains.

Along the California/Nevada border, an early winter storm brought 30 inches of snow to Mt. Rose Ski Tahoe, another 18 inches to Mammoth Mountain Ski Base and 10 inches to Palisades. The NWS office in Reno also saw flakes fall to below 5,000 feet.

A winter weather warning was issued for the Ruby Mountains and the East Humboldt Range, where the total snowfall amounted to almost 50 cm.

Study: CO2 uptake, vegetation on the rise
Plants will have absorbed 20% more carbon dioxide by the end of the century than originally predicted, according to a new study, which even some mainstream media admits “climate models overestimate how fast the planet will warm”.

Trinity College Dublin said its study, published in the journal Science Advances, painted an “uncharacteristically positive picture for the planet” after finding that climate models had not accounted for all elements of photosynthesis.

Mainstream science had proclaimed that “climate change” was likely to weaken the process, but the new research shows that plants will continue to efficiently absorb carbon dioxide, produce extra nutrients and so continue to thrive.

Arctic sea ice is doing fine
From Antarctica to Greenland to the Arctic, global ice is doing well. . . . .

 

Temperature seems to have hit the ceiling.
UAH Global Temperature Update for November, 2023: +0.91 deg. C
December 1st, 2023
The Version 6 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for November, 2023 was +0.91 deg. C departure from the 1991-2020 mean, statistically unchanged from the October, 2023 anomaly of +0.93 deg. C.


The linear warming trend since January, 1979 still stands at +0.14 C/decade (+0.12 C/decade over the global-averaged oceans, and +0.19 C/decade over global-averaged land).

 

Heavy snowfalls suddenly hit Munich. Due to the sudden cold snap, the delegation's plane, which was supposed to fly to Dubai for the global warming summit, froze in snowdrifts.

 

Here comes the cold.
Russia Reels From -60°C Cold Blast… And Munich Breaks December Snow Record
By P Gosselin on 10. December 2023

By EIKE,
electroverse

In early December, the Arctic practically spread to Russia (and Europe), see following chart:

Image: Temperature anomalies of up to -30°C below the seasonal average. Cropped at EIKE.

Extreme cold set in across most of Russia’s 17.1 million km² territory, the third year in a row that the country has suffered from severe frost in early December: -61.1°C in Delyankir on December 8, 2021 and -61°C in Oymyakon on December 12, 2022.

Lowest in 40 years

In the vast region of Yakutia (3.1 million km²), half of the weather stations there reported temperatures below -50°C on December 4. In the city of Iema, an early temperature of -58.7°C was recorded on December 5, the lowest December temperature in the city for more than 40 years.



Cropped at EIKE.

Other outstanding values include -58°C in Oymyakon and -56.1°C in Agayakan, although values below -50°C were regularly recorded.

A worsening of the frost is predicted for the rest of December. As gismeteo.ru reports, temperatures of -60°C and below would be reached in Oymyakon on December 5 and 6.

Further intensification is then expected.

The largest country in the world is suffered from an all-encompassing, record-breaking deep freeze. On Sunday, December 3, according to local meteorologist Yevgeny Tishkovets, a daily record for snowfall was set dating back to 1878, breaking the previous record set in 1980.

Munich Germany sees massive snowfall

Large parts of Europe also saw extreme cold weather and heavy snowfalls earlier this month. Munich was blanketed by over 40 cm of snow and saw the mercury plummet to -18°C.



GFS 2m temperature anomalies (°C) December 4th. [tropicaltidbits.com].

Munich’s earliest recorded-18°C temperature

This was extremely rare for early December. In fact, this is the earliest -18°C the airport has ever recorded.

Surprisingly, there was frost practically all over Germany on Monday afternoon. The following chart shows low temperatures recorded on December 4th.

Chart: cropped at EIKE

Snowstorm grounds 800 flights

On Saturday, December 2nd, 46 cm of snow fell in Munich – a record for a December that goes back to 1933 and beats the previous monthly record of 44 cm set on December 29, 1938. As a result, almost 800 flights were canceled on Saturday alone.

Power grid teeters

The German power grid, which is recklessly geared towards renewable energies, is struggling to meet the increased demand for energy.

The government is panicking and now backtracking as ill-advised measures pushed through by corrupt/weak politicians are taking their revenge (along with an over-reliance on Russian gas).

 

So it goes.
Climate Fact-Check November 2023 Edition
December 11, 2023
November was yet another month where satellite and surface station temperatures clashed.

Per NASA satellites, the estimated “average global temperature” for November was 0.91°C above the estimated “average global temperature” for the period 1991-2020 for the third month running.





But according to an average of actual real-time measurements of global surface temperature stations, November 2023 continued the trend since January 2015 of global cooling.

How can these estimates be reconciled? Do they need to be?

Satellites measure atmospheric brightness. Data are then fed into computer models that somehow produce temperature estimates. The surface station data represent minute-by-minute direct temperature measurements from surface stations around the world. NASA says surface station measurements are more reliable. Even so, it is important to keep in mind that “average global temperature” has no physical meaning in the first place. It is a metric made up for the global warming controversy. We only discuss it because alarmists do. . . . .

 

El-Nino's strongly effect the atmosphere which is why UAH picks it up very well while ground based instruments doesn't which is why it is always cooler during the early part of El-Nino phases eventually UAH will drop down as the El-Nino phase drops down then the temperature gap drops back down.

 

Thanks for the explanation.

 

Not really. Climate is incredibly complex and full of inertia, feedbacks, leading and lagging indicators, etc. In the long run, we can expect lower troposphere (UAH) and surface temperatures not to diverge much; but that's only over the long run -- at least several years. UAH's smoothing is 13 months, and even that shows a clear ~3yr cyclical pattern. The 13-month smoothing is certainly useful, but three- or six-year smoothing would be a better way to tease out the long-term trends, IMO.

 

In my opinion, it is not cooling or overheating that affects the comfort of life on planet earth much more, but land desertification. It is very difficult for people to live in deserts. There are very large temperature fluctuations at night and during the day, as well as strong winds. There are vast desert lands on the planet in which there is a very low population density and which produce very few products. They need to be planted with forests and reclaimed - this will provide much greater benefits than "green technologies" or limiting carbon dioxide emissions.

 

In fact, increased CO2 has shrunk deserts globally. This happens because increased CO2 enables plants to lose less water by transpiration, making them more resistant to drought conditions.

The anti-CO2 scare campaign is literally making desertification worse and reducing crop yields and increasing food prices, as well as making energy less available and affordable for the world's poor, who need it to survive.

On top of that, there is no credible empirical evidence -- none -- that CO2 has any significant effect on global surface temperature, or that if it did have a modest warming effect, that this effect would not be broadly beneficial. The anti-CO2 narrative is literally killing many thousands of poor people every year, and this toll is very likely to rise to millions.

The anti-science, anti-CO2 scaremongers do not care that their evil nonscience will be responsible for the deaths of millions of people: their anti-human death cult believes that there are too many people in the world, and most of them should die.

 

Indeed.
Research Finds Higher Likelihood Of Extreme Snowfall. And: Greening Africa
By P Gosselin on 26. December 2023

Higher likelihood of extreme snowfall in the French Alps in coming decades. And, greening Africa

Hat-tip: Klimanachrichten

Global warming is often cited as having a negative impact on snow and ice melt in cold regions, yet new research published in The Cryosphere has suggested that extreme snowfall events may be a feature of some locations at higher latitudes and elevations in the decades to come.

Greening Africa

A study by the Chinese Academy of Sciences published in Regional Environmental Change on June 28 looked at the Climatic and non-climatic factors found to affect vegetation greenness in Sudano-Sahelian region of Africa.



A research team from the Aerospace Information Research Institute (AIR) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) analyzed trends in vegetation greenness in the Sudano-Sahelian region during 2001–2020 and quantified the relative contributions of climatic factors and non-climatic factors in specific sub-regions. The study used MODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) as a proxy for vegetation greenness.

Result: the researchers found that greening was widespread across the Sudano-Sahelian region, while browning was clustered in central West Africa.

They applied a correlation-based conceptual attribution model to study rainfall-driven changes. Results showed that only nearly half of the areas with vegetation greening could be explained by long-term rainfall variability, while most of the areas with browning trends were not related to rainfall variability. Greening/browning vegetation trends not caused by rainfall variability could be explained by the non-climatic factors, e.g., land use/land cover (LULC) change and fire impact.

The research team found that gains (i.e., increases in the fractional abundance of LULC classes) in cropland and natural vegetation associated with positive land management were likely the dominant drivers of greening in Senegal and Ethiopia. The combined impacts of rainfall variability and LULC changes contributed to greening trends in Mali and Sudan.

In contrast, vegetation browning in central West Africa appeared to be driven by cropland gain and natural vegetation loss (i.e., decrease in the fractional abundance of a LULC class) associated with extensive agricultural production activities.

Paper: Yelong Zeng et al, Changes in vegetation greenness related to climatic and non-climatic factors in the Sudano-Sahelian region, Regional Environmental Change (2023). DOI: 10.1007/s10113-023-02084-5

 

El Nino-driven warming may have passed peak.

UAH Global Temperature Update for December, 2023: +0.83 deg. C
January 3rd, 2024
2023 Was the Warmest Year In the 45-Year Satellite Record

The Version 6 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for December, 2023 was +0.83 deg. C departure from the 1991-2020 mean, down from the November, 2023 anomaly of +0.91 deg. C.


The 2023 annual average global LT anomaly was +0.51 deg. C above the 1991-2020 mean, easily making 2023 the warmest of the 45-year satellite record. The next-warmest year was +0.39 deg. C in 2016. The following plot shows all 45 years ranked from the warmest to coolest. . . .

 

Which begins, remember, following a 30-year cooling trend....

I still see no credible empirical evidence -- none -- that 2023's global average surface temperature in pristine rural sites exceeds that of the early 1940s, let alone the Medieval Warm Period, let alone the Holocene Optimum.

 

And that's why free discussion is valuable.

 

So, there's likely a reason for anti CO2. It's called Malthusianism. The basic premise is population control. As in being able to feed a world population doesn't promote the idea of population control. So, by adopting measures to reduce CO2, less vegetation can be supported, and not enough food then exists, and population decreases. It's so immoral that most climate folks won't actually admit to it, but you can ask the nice folks at the Climate summits, and they aren't shy about their determinations that 90% of the world's populations must be cut in their view.

So, it actually isn't a discussion about temps, it's a conversation about food outputs, and population control.

 

That is perhaps the most negative interpretation of anti-CO2 nonscience: they want to do away with most of the world's population -- and when I see how many stupid, gullible people seem to be willing to go along with it, I have some sympathy with that idea. But it still seems anti-human at its root.

 

True. It ties back to the origination of Eugenics, and the belief of the super race. Seems these beliefs have found a foot hold in the elite who believe in their superiority. That breeds the adoption then of Malthusianism in support of their efforts to "stabilize" world populations to optimize their ability to retain their superiority. As mentioned, these folks aren't shy about admitting it. But it all has to start from some mechanism. Food availability, for now, seems to be the target.

 

What if the temperature record isn't really the temperature record?
The Greatest Scientific Fraud Of All Time -- Part XXXI
January 07, 2024/ Francis Menton

• 
  It’s been almost two years (February 20, 2022) since I added a post to this series. The reason is that global surface temperatures, as measured by NOAA and NASA, had decreased somewhat from 2020 highs, bringing about a hiatus in the otherwise endless drumbeat of propaganda from those agencies claiming “hottest month ever” or “hottest year ever.”
  
  
• But then a strong El Niño early last year induced a small temperature increase several months later, picked up by the NOAA/NASA thermometer network. Result: From NOAA, October 16, 2023 (“Globally, September 2023 was the warmest September in the 174-year NOAA record. The year-to-date (January–September) global surface temperature ranked as the warmest such period on record.”); NOAA, November 15 (“The planet added another record-breaking month to 2023, with October ranking as the warmest October in the 174-year global climate record.”); Axios, December 14 (“With November ranking as the warmest such month on record, NOAA is projecting greater than 99.5% odds that this year will be the world's warmest since instrument records began in the 19th century.”). Expect the official announcement that 2023 was the “hottest year ever” to come out some time around the middle of this month.
  
  
• But do the data really establish that the most recent months and year are the hottest?
  

READ MORE

 

Average temperature rise is being driven by less extreme cold weather, rather than more extreme heat.

What Is Climate?–Richard Lindzen
Guest Blogger
On the contrary, Figure 2 tells us that at any given time, there are almost as many stations cooling as are warming.