Has the Global Temperature Trend Turned to Cooling?

Unseasonably cool here right now, we are usually triple digit heat every day until the end of August.

 

Oh, you mean the WEATHER changed.

 

Funny how that happens in desert climates...

 

You mean, particular areas of India and Pakistan... and so?

 

Yes and that is the difference between weather and climate

 

Both, which is what the science has been saying for a very, very, long time.

 

NASA is full of ****, per usual.

It is not possible to measure the temperature of the Earth to any usable accuracy. This is a problem involving statistical mathematics. Since temperatures can easily vary by 20degF per mile (e.g. on a grass surface vs on a nearby parking lot surface), it would take upwards of hundreds of millions of thermometers (all uniformly spaced and simultaneously read by the same observer) in order to have any usable idea of what Earth's temperature is. --- NASA only makes use of some 7,500 thermometers (nowhere near the hundreds upon hundreds of millions required) and those thermometers are not uniformly spaced nor simultaneously read by the same observer.

To explain using different wording, NASA makes use of some 7,500 thermometers, which means that NASA (IF the thermometers WERE uniformly spaced, however they aren't) would have a single thermometer for every ~26,000 miles, or an area that is roughly the size of the entire state of West Virginia. Do you think that ONE thermometer can accurately tell you the temperature of the entire state of West Virginia?? --- IOW, any "temperature of the Earth" claims by NASA or anyone else are just pure guesswork.

 

You don't know the difference between weather and climate.

 

It is the elements of weather which change, as weather is made up of quantifiable elements (temperature, wind speed, etc). -- Climate does not change (it is not quantifiable).

 

That's a new one.

It's idiotic, but at least it's new.

 

Logic is not idiotic, dude.

 

Is that what you call it.

We've been doing that since the 70s.

NASA has been putting instruments in orbit to measure the changes directly, which helps.

Shall we be direct?

You don't have a clue..

 

You cannot use a satellite to measure Earth's temperature either (because Earth's emissivity is unknown).

 

Remember, I take a very long term look at the climate. Where even a thousand years is barely of much interest.

And in the last decade or so, we have had increased volcanology.

In the last 2 decades, we have had a VEI 6, a VEI 5, and 25 VEI 4 eruptions (in addition to 19 VEI 3 and below).

Those eruptions emit a hell of a lot more CO2 than all of human industry does. Yet, it also releases a lot of ash and other gasses that cool the planet. This is why almost every time somebody wants to have a discussion on this, I bring up volcanos. More than anything else in the history of the planet other than algae, that is the single largest influencer of climate that is actually on the planet itself.

And want to know what I think of "models"? Those of us old enough to remember the Gulf War remember all the doom and gloom predictions of a "Global Nuclear Winter" if Iraq blew up 100 oil wells and refineries. It was all over the news back then, with such experts as the founders of the TTAPS paper which predicted it on almost all of the news media.

And the predictions got even more crazy as the buildup progressed. With those saying 500 oil well fires would plunge the region into sub-zero temperatures for a decade or more. And the affects being both continental and global in scale. Reduced crop outputs, famine, massive deaths. Carl Sagan himself (the "S" in TAPPS) predicted that the next year would be a repeat of the 1816 "Year WIthout a Summer".

Well, we all know exactly what happened. Over 600 oil wells and 100 refineries were destroyed and set on fire. And it took over eight months to put them all out.

And the affect on the climate was....

Nothing.

There was a hell of a lot of egg on the faces of the very people that released the TTAPS study (Richard P. Turco, Owen Toon, Thomas P. Ackerman, James B. Pollack and Carl Sagan), and most of them have since admitted that their theories were false, and have recanted their claims. Yet amazingly, people still believe in "Nuclear Winter".

This is why not only you, but I also demand to see proof of how accurate earlier predictions are. They claim all they want, but in almost every single case the past predictions are wrong, and I have never really seen any of them try to take into account the outgassing from volcanoes. We have massive eruptions, and as far as the graphs they release it is as if they never happened.

 

Still going low in 2022.
UAH Global Temperature Update for May, 2022: +0.17 deg. C
June 1st, 2022
The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for May, 2022 was +0.17 deg. C, down from the April, 2022 value of +0.26 deg. C.



The linear warming trend since January, 1979 still stands at +0.13 C/decade (+0.12 C/decade over the global-averaged oceans, and +0.18 C/decade over global-averaged land).

 

The data are the data.
Global Surface Temperatures Have Cooled 0.5°C Since 2016
By P Gosselin on 5. June 2022

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The globe continues cooling off since surface temperatures peaked from the 2015/16 El Nino.

The NCEP/GFS analysis shows May to be the coldest month globally so far this year and the coldest May since 2015, with a deviation in 2m temperatures of only about 0.38°C from the outdated (colder) WMO climate mean 1981-2010.

Hat-tip: Schneefan



Source: Global Temperatures

Especially the Southern Hemisphere (SH) has cooled strongly (blue line). The new solar minimum, La Niña, and the Tonga volcano are working to further cool the globe. The data in the graph above were also “adjusted” using the NASA/GISS warming factor, but are significantly lower in unadulterated reality.

UAH cooling

The global cooling trend since 2016 is also confirmed by the unbiased satellite data from UAH in May 2022.



Source: Dr. Roy Spencer UAH Global Temperature

The UAH unbiased satellite data centered around 1500 m (TLT) show that May 2022 is only ranked as 7th mildest May, with a +0.17°C deviation from the 1991-2020 WMO global climate mean, thus continuing the negative trend since 2016 (blue trend line):

Add to this the huge eruption of the Tonga volcano in January 2022, which also contributes somewhat to global cooling with its SO2 cloud up to 19km high.

One may state: After a so far average temperate and average wet year 2022 in Germany, no model expects a heat or drought summer in Germany.

As far as central Europe is concerned, no models are currently projecting a hot summer plagued by drought and heat.

 

Absolutely wrong. Humans emit far more CO2 than volcanoes.

What does it say about you, that you get the basics so totally wrong?

Climate models been excellent, even going back to Hansen in 1988. If someone told you otherwise, they lied to you. Remember, you can't gaslight intelligent and well-informed people. You can only gaslight those who want to be fooled.

Of course, the models aren't even needed, being how the directly measured data confirms AGW theory. The success of the climate models is just icing on the cake.

 

I understand why you choose to use a really bad model instead of the actual good direct data. The direct data says you're totally wrong.

 

No, that doesn't make you look narcissistic and crazy at all, claiming that you know the RealTruth, while the smart people are all wrong.

You've been corrected about your various bonehead errors many times. You're clueless in the field of statistics. That's an observation, not an opinion.

That's not right. That doesn't even rise to "wrong".

Back in the real world, anomalies -- and not absolute temperatures -- vary extremely smoothly. That's why they're used. And so your reasoning faceplants.

That's far more than what is necessary. If you removed 90% of them, the average temperature anomalies wouldn't change. That's how overly-robust the network is. Reality is quite unkind to your delusions.

I have no idea what that sentence is supposed to mean. I don't think anyone does.

You're failing so hard here because you don't grasp the difference between local temps and average anomolies. Until you can learn the basics, you shouldn't be bothering the adults.

 

Neither "the smart people" nor NOAA are science.

Projection.

It was correct.

You cannot calculate an anomaly without first having multiple valid temperature measurements to calculate it from.

Wrong. Many hundreds of millions are required.

There are no anomalies, as there are no valid temperature measurements to calculate them from.

Projection.

What part confused you?

You're failing so hard here because you don't grasp the truth that you must first have valid temperature measurements in order to calculate anomalies from them.

 

That is just some sad desperation on display.
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Weather service

ncep.noaa.gov

The United States National Centers for Environmental Prediction delivers national and global weather, water, climate and space weather guidance, forecasts, warnings and analyses to its Partners and External User Communities. Wikipedia

 

https://english.cas.cn/newsroom/research_news/tech/202202/t20220218_300957.shtml

There, that is known as a "reference". And notice, that is a single eruption. Oh, and we have known for decades that eruptions are growing more frequent, and larger. And this is also known to be caused by "global warming".

But not the human kind, at the end of every ice age vulcanism greatly increases. This is a known fact, so it will continue to get worse.

Oh, and most of the claims about the source of CO2 is skewed on purpose. In reality, over 99% of the CO2 on the planet is underground. And the majority released each year is released into the oceans. And the "human numbers" include such things as cow farts, garbage decomposition, farming, and a crapload of other things. Sources that would have existed if humans were still primitive hunter-gatherers and had no tools more advanced than rocks tied to sticks.

 

Speaking of 'cow farts', if people want to claim that is a real issue, then they should be very thankful those evul white hunters thinned out those massive buffalo herds, shouldn't they?

 

It's unpleasant to read opinions that differ from yours, huh?

 

I dislike corruption.