How dangerous is delta?

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/07/31/us/covid-delta-cases-deaths.html

I was trying to find the death rate per 100,000 for the new covid strain and found this article. It shows that as rates spike in "counties with low vaccination rates" the death rates have exploded to........ 2 per MILLION? WTF??? Is that a type-o? That number is so low it may as well be zero.
By way of comparison the death rates for flu are an order of magnitude higher, the national average almost always between 10 and 20 deaths per 100,000:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/sosmap/flu_pneumonia_mortality/flu_pneumonia.htm


So, how dangerous is delta really? IS it simply too early to tell or is this a case of a mutation being more infectious but less deadly? In any case, it's beyond insane to be talking about further lock downs (and the economic carnage that follows) with so few people dying.

 

Delta's Case Fatality Rate/Florida; 0.75%

Delta's Case Hospitalization Rate/Florida; 12%, or 12 hospitalizations for every 100 infections.

Percent of patients in ICU's; 20%

Percent on Ventilators; 13%

Thus, in Florida, if you get infected, there's a 4% chance you'll end up in an ICU, and/or on a ventilator.

 

Can you help me understand how (any number of) deaths is acceptable? Where's the cut off number? You clearly think 2 per million is "nothing". When does it raise the alarm? 200? 2,000? 20,000? Where's our line in the sand?

You haven't seemed to factor in that we ALREADY know the trajectory of Delta and Lambda because they've been making the rounds in other countries for many months now.

 

Note: Florida's Delta Statistics are different than Louisiana's Delta Statistics. For example; Due to a very high rate of obesity, diabetes, and other comorbidities, Louisiana's Delta Case Fatality Rate will rationally be higher than Florida.

 

link?

 

It's because you are reading the graphs wrongly. A figure of 2 deaths per million is 2 deaths per day per million (or 660 deaths per day). Do you think that 660 dying from covid per day every day is insignificant? The graphs show that the death rate drops by about 80% for vaccinated compared to unvaccinated

 

I don't know at what level it becomes time to raise alarms but I do know that it must be higher than rates for common influenza. 2 per million is effectively zero.

So your response is, too early to tell? WTF don't you simply say that?

 

Good catch but wow do you get to 660 per day?

2 million per day per million -> 730 per year per million, or 73 deaths per 100,000 (assuming the rates stay at that level - you'll notice there is a negative inflection point right after the peak of 2). That is worse than flu by a factor of 3 or 4 for the worst hit areas. Still no reason to panic or lock down IMO.

 

Here is my comment and yours. How in the world did you get to that conclusion from my comment?

 

Because the entire discussion is based on the graphs noted in the OP. So, either that data is wrong or it's too early to tell? I have no clue what the death rate is like in other countries nor do I have any reason to think it would be the same here in the US.

That said, I did draw a bad conclusion as truth and justice noted.

 

OK. That's for being receptive to my comment. My point was/is that what is happening in other countries regarding variants is important to our doctors and health department because they show the basic trajectory of upcoming variants, vaccinated vs. vaccinated responses (including asymptomatic, mild, hospitalized and death) to the variants and what mitigation efforts have worked best in those populations. So, what's going on around the world is significant to our approach so we are better prepared.

Does that explain my comment better for you? If not, I'll try again.

 

Please don't say Too Long Didn't Read. This is important.

Three issues with your post. Don't read me wrong; what you brought to the table is interesting information; thanks for posting it, but there are some issues with it.

One, these stats are not exactly much better than what we had for the ancestral variants (only marginally so), especially if you consider the second thing I'll say to you next.

Two, there is a very big hole in what one may deduct from these stats: the fact that they do not differentiate between vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals. Given that Delta infections among the vaccinated rarely result in hospitalization, and even when it does, it is even rarer for these breakthrough infections to result in ICU stays and death, they dilute down the numbers. If you look just at what happens to the unvaccinated individuals, then I'll be prepared to bet my house that the numbers are worse. So you conclude that if you get infected by Delta, there's a small chance that you'll end up in an ICU. Sure, sure, that's apparently supported by these general stats, but I'd say, if you get infected by Delta AND you're unvaccinated, then those odds are most likely worse than that, and almost certain to be at least as bad as what we had for the ancestral variants.

Three, what I've been saying here forever and ever and it's amazing how hard it is for people to get it, is that ICU stays and death are most definitely not all that is concerning about the SARS-CoV-2. We all know that this virus doesn't tend to kill (during the acute phase) many more people than about 1%, sometimes 2%, sometimes a bit less than 1%, in countries that have a decent medical infrastructure. But this is not all. There are two other concerning issues.

A) There's been studies showing a higher fatality rate within the first 5 months of discharge from a hospital, for someone who had an acute case of SARS-CoV-2, because for example of coagulation issues (someone recovers from the acute phase, goes home, then a couple of months later drops dead of pulmonary embolism or a stroke, given how the virus damages the endothelium, that is, the inner layer of blood vessels, increasing the likelihood of a thrombotic even down the road. These deaths tend to be certified as simply a death by stroke or PE and do not get counted as a Covid-19 death, given that the dead patient has been negative for the virus for a long time, and the link has not been proven so a doctor won't risk writing down that this was a Covid-19 death. However, deaths by all causes in survivors of an acute Covid-19 disease, tend to be significantly higher in the first 5 months following recovery. Big food for thought. Proof of this: I posted a link to the study somewhere in my posting history. Sorry, I won't go fish it out right now, but I did post it. If someone is persistent enough to use the search engine and/or to browse back thousands of posts, the link is there, somewhere.

B) The LARGE proportion of Covid-19 survivors who acquire sequelae (at least 20% in most studies, sometimes more), that is, residual effects that do not go away. I'm not even talking about "long Covid" but rather, people who emerge from an apparent full acute phase recovery, with weakened hearts due to acute and/or chronic myocarditis, new onset diabetes due to destruction of the Beta cells in the pancreas, permanent shortness of breath due to pulmonary fibrosis, diminished cognitive capacity due to brain lesions, and renal insufficiency due to kidney damage. Again, on this, I posted links to studies, multiple times.

I'm interested in a comment here, and I'm asking what you think of the above. I'm not in the mood to go fish right now for the links I published in the past on this, but if you can accept the above as true, what do you think of it?

MY POINT (I'm using caps for emphasis, not with the intent of yelling): REGARDLESS of acute phase stats, and even regardless of variants, this is a VERY dangerous, very damaging virus, and it is best avoided even if people tend to survive the acute phase.

Obviously the best way to avoid it, is to accept the vaccine, and to restart wearing for now, high quality masks (N95 respirators or better) with a good seal, and to remain vigilant and cautious until hopefully the Delta variant burns itself out and cases drop, like it seems to have been the case in the UK and India. And let's keep our fingers crossed that Lambda is not as bad, and that no newer and scarier variants pop up. I'm not very optimistic, though. The variants are showing no signs that they'll stop coming. We may end up facing a variant that is worse than Delta.

The lesson is: this is far from over. We need to remain vigilant and we need to double up in efforts to get more people to accept the vaccines. We also need updated vaccines that will be more effective against these new variants. Most likely we'll need a yearly Covid-19 shot, each year with vaccines tuned into the most prevailing new variants, just like we do for the flu. This thing is here to stay. Herd immunity is by now an impossible dream. A hope is that maybe the pandemic will end with the virus further mutating, but mutating to become weaker rather than stronger like we've seen recently. Fingers crossed for that. It's a possible scenario but it hasn't happened yet.

 

Thanks Centerfield. The intent of my post was to discuss relative death rates of flu and covid, I was not aware of a high death rate among survivors. This is (apparently) not reported much.
In any event, I agree that points A and B should factor into the calculus used to formulate public policy. That said, I would likely be opposed to any further "lockdowns" unless the (A+B) is VERY high.

As for masks, people will not, by and large, wear an N-95 or better. And if they did, they would not handle the mask properly to avoid exposure to a very virulent strain of a virus. People will become infected and then simply go home and infect the family (which is the #1 vector of transmission IIRC).

Honest question, how do the hospitalization and death rates of previous covid survivors compare to vaccinated? I've not heard this reported much either.

 

Would you mind quantifying "VERY high"?

 

IMO VERY high would be when you are running out of hospital beds.

 

Would that include beds in nursing homes and on cruise ships and makeshift hospitals?

 

no

 

Delta is more serious than Alpha, no question. It's the first variant to put young healthy people in hospital in number, and that tells you all you need to know. Alpha didn't do that.

 

Delta's Confirmed Cases/confirmed covid Hospitalization Rate is undoubtedly 3 times higher than Alpha.

Note: Was going to say ''4 times higher'', however, I don't want any ''counter-argument'', and mainly from Republicans.

 

How dangerous do you . .


Problem is,
just when I believed I created Moi's
Covid FREE space
violators happen.
Farnham's Free Hold time? eh Rob't Heinlein for the uninitiated?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Farnham's_Freehold



Moi

 

In addition to the above;

a. We can only use Current Hospitalizations to calculate Bed Capacity

b. We can only use number of Daily Covid Confirmed Hospital Admissions to calculate Delta's Case Hospitalization Rate.

NOTE: Due to the fact that Delta variant make people sicker and QUICKER, we can now use 7-Day Average Admissions DIVIDED by Daily Cases 7-Day rolling average PRIOR to 7-Day Average Admissions, and follow up with 14-day averages, both cases and daily admissions.

 

you are correct about the low death rate although co-morbidities still come into play. The issue is it's more contagious and that means more folks take up hospital beds and when junior falls out of a tree, there may not be a bed or worse, an ICU bed for him. You also have the folks that are kept even though they could be discharged, but have no-one to care for them or long-term care won't take them back til a negative test. Thus, beds taken up by folks who should be discharged.

But, this too shall spike and drop as more folks recover and build immunity

 

let's not forget that is an engineered virus and thus nobody, probably not even the inventors, know what it will do

 

100% safety is not possible. I don't know what is acceptable but zero problems is certainly not it.

 

Not to change the subject, but have you heard the speech by Dr. Stock of Noblesville Indiana addressing his local school board? He was on Tucker Carlson last evening, a very courageous and well informed physician speaking truth to power.

Likely the video of his presentation has been taken down by the Guardians Of The Official Narrative.