I want a non-biased update on the US economy. As unbiased as possible. I am hearing both sides of the stories. If you hate China or US or whoever, leave that aside, let's analyze the situation fairly and as if we had nothing to do with it. I want to know what is going on.
well who really knows? I mean, we all only know our own little corner of the country and it's a BIG country. here in East Texas where I live, there are definite signs of trouble..Texas has withstood the recession better than most so for the signs to be showing up here finally means to me that other areas are MUCH worse and not getting better at all. banks are still lending...IF you have a relationship with them..unemployment isnt like it is in other parts of the country but it's beginning to go south much faster than it has been.
it can be seen that more towns are turning to the idea of a homestead business. they are less willing to hire people then they were before aside from friends and family because there is no trust. If you would like to know more follow the divorce rates with the sub-rate mortgages. you will notice that as divorce rates increase so dose the number of faulted mortgages. This is because a lot of family's rely on dual income to provide for the bills and not only is a divorce expensive it is also splitting that dual income and neither party can pay for the house. It is my suggestion that people think about the consequences of not living within there individual means even while married. If a couple cannot afford a home independent of each other they should refrain from investing till they can . The economy will take a long time to recover while these aforementioned problems continue. It may take years and that's if we are lucky.
Well, that's as unbiased as you are going to get it. Only two posts since yesterday, other than yours and not including mine. Why? People can not be unbiased. Whatever one believes will be trashed by somebody else because no two people think alike.
So does the rest of the country. Food prices are up, gas is over $3/gal and half the people I know are unemployed and can't find a job. Not sure how much more we need to know to figure out we've got a bad economy.
I don't know if its possible to give a completely unbiased update. I am not an economic expert so my opinions on the economy ultimately are more biased than someone who is. Here is my opinion, as unbiased as I can make it. Until late in 2008 the United States economy was supported by real estate development. While other business thrived few supported the number of mid to high paying jobs that real estate did. The investment capitol gained from the real estate market allowed banks to make many other investments including small business loans etc. If we look at other economies which have taken long term downturns we also see real estate failure as a central culprit (Japan being one). Currently the economy is at best sputtering along without any primary driver to replace the real estate market. Most business (unlike real estate) can outsource their workforce once they become large enough to be a primary driver for our economy. More importantly, most business cannot inspire the kind of local investment real estate does. (Think about it, how many people want to go into long term debt for anything other than a house?) The only thing close to taking its place would be education, which is currently under critical public scrutiny. Until our economy can find another large source of jobs and investment income it will decline. (wall street does not connect directly to main street) There are many theories about the best course to take but no universally accepted cure.
it takes more than knowing that the economy is bad. it takes careful planning and thinking as well as the vast majority of people to accept the plan to make it work. Now as i personally blame the morals of people and i realize that people are inherently greedy and selfish these problems will persist. I must request that people just stop and think. Besides the sub-rate mortgage issue this nation must also look at our expenditures for the foreign policy and support. last year we spent 1.64 billion dollars on Pakistan alone not including our support to China, Israel, and Palestine. This country has enough problems without worrying about spending our hard earned money on other countries.
While things are certainly far from golden, I am very much convinced they could be so much worse. Yes unemployment is an issue, but candidly work is available for those who search hard enough. Few of my acquaintances hold a bachelor's degree and they have all managed to find themselves quite gainfully employed and not in a government or military capacity either. Candidly, it seems this recession has hit people only as hard as they've allowed themselves to be hit...
as a united states citizen i am sickened by the lack of the American Government to follow the constitution. One could say that the social contract set forth from our founding fathers has been misused and abused by the current political system. If our leaders had held true to the constitution we would be in a much better place socially economically and judiciously. the faults can be placed on leaders supporting only the tax and economic changes that put more money in there wallets while taking from ours. Trickle Down Economics and the faulty way we use our Keynesian economic system.
Here in NY I hear of many white collar people getting laid off, the poor areas are about the same,,many do not look,,and many never did. It's just the way many of those towns are. NY is big on Welfare,,,like Cal. Prices are getting higher especially with meats being very noticeable.. The House mess is a real shame, since many older folks were depending on selling and living off the income, I do not believe the better areas are doing all that bad, sure the value went down but those homes will sell because people looking in those areas wont have a problem qualifying for a mortgage... I believe the Lower middle class is taking a real beating...
Well, if you want people's reactions to the economic problems, here is a statement: It's GODZILLA! Honestly, I am looking for a job in the city, I have applied to a lot of places, and will keep applying. I know the economy is not great, but this isn't the great depression.
I do not hate China, but I know that it is eating American pie and laughing about USA which granted it a third of its manufacturing. Go to shops an see, a big lot of goods were made by China. The immediately stopping of Outsourcing, a Conservative Potus, supporting of own production can still change something. Otherwise it will be too late.
One major issue with outsourcing is that the american unions have made hiring and paying workers too (*)(*)(*)(*) expensive. Many of the motor companys that outsourced did so because the unions would not allow the companys to fire people and machines came in to do there work. they would need less people to do the job but they still had to pay them to do nothing because if they did not the union would stirke the factory and cost the compay more money. The unions also demanded more pay for jobs. The companys would increase there pay to match the rate of inflation but that was not enough for the Unions. but enough digressing inorder for outsourcing to stop we need to limit the control a union can have over a company. Yes unions can do good but all they promote when unchecked is lazieness and loss of profit for a company. Because you must remember that a company is in it soley to make money not make friends
Keep it simple Look at the Unemployment rate AND the way it is calculated . You will see that the true rate is at least 15% and possibly nearer20% Look at foreclosure figures . Look at house and commercial prices --- another bubble waiting to burst Look at the updated Chinese position -- worsening rapidly Consider the implications of huge American banks reaching default position -- they are there now , which is why we had the charade of the Fed being ready to bail out EU banks a couple of weeks ago . The money is needed for US banks ( That was the Fed being clever and starting " QE3" without you punters realising ) Consider that there are also many EU banks teetering and some Fed money will prop them up . Consider that the US Government knows this which is why it has steadily allowed dollar devaluation . But it won't tell you that Look at financial positions in your States . Many are bankrupt now Even consider possible sub texts , like why troops are moving home as fast as possible . The list is endless but those are some key areas . Sometime the US will follow the EU /EZ , and it will sink . Not go into depression Sink . Likelihood ? 100%
The financial bailouts were much more substantial then Obama actually admitted. It failed too, no less. Federal reserve is still printing out money backed by nothing. National debt is 20 + trillion dollars and counting. Perpetual wars destroying sovereign nations is draining whats left of reserves, etc.
China's economy is collapsing as well, these issues are effecting the global markets, not just the west.
I can tell you that we need to raise taxes on everyone to close the budget gap. And yes- we owe a lot of money to China, Japan, Germany etc... but that can all be paid down if we're bringing in enough tax dollars.
Most people in the USA are continuing to live life as they did before. About 1 out of 5 families have lost their job and have been forced into a lower paying job. Many women are now deciding to stay at home rather than enter the workplace. Wages for many jobs have gone down, perhaps by 10-15%. Many older retired people have seen their savings investments shrink by around 25%, some more, some less. The recession has hit young adults particularly hard. By some estimates, 40% are not working, although a more conservative estimate is 20%. In many regions of the country, most young adults are still living with their parents. These are not exact figures, but about 30% of 30-year old couples cannot afford a house or decent apartment. There was an article in The Economist saying that a quarter of working age men without a university degree are not working. http://www.economist.com/node/18618613 It should be remembered that wages and job opportunity started showing signs of trouble beginning around 7 years before the official start of the recession.
Grab your note book. Like your score in Kill Bill 1 & 2 by the way. And your performance on the Chappelle show. LOL... Yea right.. I will start with the USA: The USA and other EU countries with similar political strutures and corporate wealth via capitalistic means, have all tapped out on capitalism. That is to say that the USA economy (not the investment market), is on the down turn in economic power regarding the world rankings. Capitalism as you know is when one entity parisites off another that makes money. Like the mob making people pay protection money. Think of one doctor visit and how many entities are involved in and take a pinch of profit off that one doctor visit. This is what I call capitalism and think off all the overhead of those entities that take a pinch of profit off that one service. And don't forget the other fees and costs of doing buidness for that doctor and those buisness. Go ahead, take some time and think about it. Write it down. As Reykwon, get his opinion and his input, there are many people profiting off this doctors' visit. Long gone are those days of direct services and products. Now, apply this capitalist concept to every type of buisness and service in the USA. Go ahead, take some time. You see just how massive this capitalism thing is? Now, because the corporations and monopolies of all sectors of industry in the USA have this high cost of capital overhead, they are not able to make much profit. You follow? Why? because after all the overhead their pinch is tiny. As a result, each of these industries and corpoate monopolies must capitailze on many doctors to make a decent profit. You get it so far? This has been the condition of the USA private capital market for the past 12 years. It has escalted to the point where the USA's manufacturing and service industry is tapped out on what capitalism can impose on it. Hence, the stagnation of the USA economy. You Dig? No room to grow. Now this is important. No room for the USA to grow. So what has the corporations, monopolies and investment banks been doing for the past 12 years. They have been tapping into the US government and State govrnments. Sure we all know corproations have been manipuloating politics and government policy for a long time. But the chickens have come home to roost. The only profits the corporations are making are from the federal and state governments. that means the taxpayer is picking up the tab for it. This is being done via Treasury printing money and loaning it almost free to corporations, and investment banks, and investment corporations. This is why the investment market is doing well and the economy is not. Are you with me? Did I lose you? If you are lost go back and try it again. take your time it is not a race. Now, I'll disscuss the USA in regards to the rest of the world, well most of it. The contries of China, almost all of the South American countries, Mexico, India, the Koreas, Austrailia, Germany, Turkey, Japan, Canada, some of the netherlands, and some of the former USSR countries are doing well economically and most important; they all have room to grow. The poorer the country the less developed will have the most to grow. Now why is this you ask? Because their buisness models are not tapped out with capital overhead. The stuff I described earlier that has dominated the US industries. You know capitalism. As a result, they have the ability to accomodate the old school capital methods and sturctures we have, like insurance, banking, and other smaller services and sub-contractors. Here is the thing. American corproations have been trying to infiltrate countries to allow corporate access to build and trade. How do you think this was done? Military? Forigen Aid? You are correct, both. The USA uses the military to base and we the people pay tax money in aid to those countries to do it. The benificiary of this exchange is the US Corporation who gets to start up a new company in one of those countries. You with me so far? As of this point in US Economic history. The corporations in maufacturing and services, were able to use this down economy to fire unworthy wokers, and make more profit, and now they have purchased innovative manufacturing technology that has been around for over a decade. But the quality and ability of these new manufacturing tech is far superior than it was 10 years ago, and now the corporations are making more profit with less workers. You dig? Hence the unemployment that will remain the standard of 9 or 10%. Americans are also ill equiped to work in most of these new technologies and corporations refuse to pay for the training, and want the government taxpayer to pay for it. Hence the trade Vocation schools. As you read this, the USA and parts of the EU will fart around with politics andeconomics while the emerging countries I mentioned above, pass the USA and codify solid trade and commerse between themselves. Because they have learned from the USA's blueprint for economic success. But these wise countries also have learned from the USA's economic and political mistakes. Also, the other countries have governments that really run the government and their respective countries. Another of my factoids. If you look into the history of South America, the Netherlands (Dnemark, Swiss, Norway), as well as Mexico, and China. You will see that these are pacifist countries that do not waste money on war, or associate with countries that do. Hence they have no storng ties to Russia, isreal, or the USA. Their relations with the USA are basically for trade limited by the access they allow the US corporations to have. So to sum this up real simple. The future growth outlook of the USA is not good and will be worst for at least untill capitalism turns to socialism. And corporations and the US investment market is doiing well now but the future may not be so good if the access to other countries are limited. And, with the competition of other emerging countries on the move, the USA will continue to slip. But as always with the media to feed us propaganda you can bet that when the USA drops to last place, we will be the last to know. Well at least some of us. Another significant reson outlook is not good for the USA and it's individual states is the high cost of public schools. For that go to the education section of this forum and see my outlook and reasons the USA will continue to fail. Good luck, this is a lot to take in. Some have no cognitive capacity to understand this, and they will shoot their stupid simple reasons why. But if you take the time to understand, and do your own analysis of the investment markets you will see the light. I go by what the market does and by what corporations do, not by what they or the media says.
Appreciate you have put a lot of time and effort into your Post . However it is woefully simplistic and based on assumptions which , frankly , are nonsense . Namely : There are so many areas that the US could grow from that it would probably take all morning for me to type them . Your statement is simply untrue . Secondly , and taking just a few of the list names :- China is in the midst of a Housing Bubble burst and its economy is running out of steam , for several very different reasons . Ditto India . Cracks appearing in Australia , which does fine when commodities prices are high and industrial demand is strong . One or two gaskets are blowing . Germany is running out of steam which is hardly surprising when so much of its exports are to the US and other EU countries -- all entering recession and then into depression . I guess " the Koreas " was a brain storm and here in the UK there is the Netherlands but no plural --- i.e. it either is doing well or it is not . Overall , the theories have as many holes as a colander . Back to the drawing board , I guess . But I enjoyed reading it --- Europeans have much stronger and longer attention spans !!!
I tried to make it as simple as possible for Americans. But do you have the capacity beyond memory to factor many things at one time. Nevertheless, I am always on the look out for more information to asses. And I will look into it. But it is what I observe, and, we shall see how much the USA "grows" in the next decade. The countries that you mention that have issues are common issues and they will be able to adjust, as they have some potential for growth but their politics will dictate if they go spending crazy. China, has the blue print for ecopnomic success and the blueprint for economic failure, they got it from the USA, and their socialist government does run their people, so management of their issues will be easier for them than the USA. Also, the trade agreements between China and South America and Mexico are very huge and very strong. The USA is not the only game in town for the Chinese. So I don't understand how these 2 countries can somehow fail. Germany like Japan use their nationalism to get their countries growing and innovating, and they too are into the Asian trade. Also, their socialist forms of culture and government are very productive. We here in the USA are just getting acustomed to the higher unemployment rates, as we should be, because this is the trend for the USA, and the rest of the problems that come with higher unemployment will follow. And from my psycholgical assessment of the character and traits of the American employer and employee, they do not have the skill or the motivation to unlatch themselves of privilage and complacency. Furthermore, the cultural development and intelect of the general massess will continue to decline with public education system not able to manage their tasks without sucking more money off the economy and brining it down. One step forward and two steps back.. Again, I sees it different than you. you may be wrong, or you could be right. But that does not make what I assess any different in that respect. You dig? Is the USA going to fight isreal's war in Iran soon? who will pay for it? how will that improve the condition of the USA? and all those countries who are distancing themselves from the USA because they do not want to be associated with waring contries? Will that impact the global growth outlook of the USA? Sure like I said (or forgot to), the investment market is not a reflection of the US economy. Two different things. Investment wise the USA will linger, But the US economy is what I'm talking about. Because that is what the OP wanted. Your data has not amounted to anything I can apply to the bigger picture, but some of the small bits of opinion could be usefull in the future.
Torres wrote "But do you have the capacity beyond memory to factor many things at one time ?" Just assume you are talking with a humble polymath with a near photographic memory and you will have hit the jackpot . Torres wrote The countries that you mention that have issues are common issues and they will be able to adjust, The countries I exampled were from the list that YOU wrote . I certainly did not say Germany or Japan will fail --- you made up that comment . I simply said Germany would suffer -- and already is doing just that -- because a producer in declining markets must itself decline .They also will suffer hugely if Italy and/or Spain effectively default ( which they will ) because the exposure of German banks to the sovereign debt of these two countries is crippling . I did not pick out Japan for mention because for the last 20 years they have been effectively bankrupt . Do some home work !! Torres wrote Is the USA going to fight isreal's war in Iran soon? who will pay for it? how will that improve the condition of the USA? Where did all this new material come from ? And , Why ? All I will say is that , if you think that Iran is Israel's war , you are forgetting the US nose for swindling countries out of their Oil whenever and wherever possible . If war came along -- which I doubt ---- the US would try to pay for it as it pays for everything --- get the Federal Reserve to print more imaginary money and further guarantee America's status as the greatest world bankrupt ever . Remember it was you who introduced this line of thought . NOT ME .
Correct: Oil production of iran part is only a samll part (less than 2%) of the global scale of oil producing countires. It is insignifican yesteray and today for the needs and consumption of the USA. And cost far too much to import, when Canada and Mexico and South America can provide the Sweet for less and in larger quantities. No to mention the USA produces a lot of it's own, and the USA is consuming less oil today than it did 5 years ago. The trend is likely to continue, and Africa will be the next untapped market if ever the need for oil becomes an issue. Again Correct. But the underlying cost for the USA to meddel in the middle east (Iran) the new war will cost the US economy trillions. The financial markets in the USA and around the world will benifit from it, but it will continue to bring down the US economy. Remember, the economy is not the same as investment market. The ones who will pay for this invesment is the taxpayer. And again, you are right on target. People forget that the USA's government is influenced by corporations to dictate what changes need to be made before the Government acts to change public behaviror. And the corporations are dependent on the US government to open up the world for trade and commerce. And with the political idologies of politicians in congress (the ones who realy mane the poloicy) getting more inept to solve US forgen policy and economic policy to improve the USA The USA will be very slow to react. Also with the USA focused on their own internal conflicts pointing fingers and blame, the real solutions for future growth and expansion will be overlooked and avoided. As we see evident here. Again you got it right: In other countries of the socialist type, their governments control the government. As a result, social and economical problems can be fixed faster. In addition their governments are working on plans for more global trade to solve their internal economic problems, as opposed to the USA focusing within on the vast aray of problems from economics, unemployment, declining USD, skyrocketing medial cost, insurance cost, deflation high cost for tax payers for education, and I can go on and on, but you get the gist. In other word, the politicans are squabling about small issues, and have not even addressed the other economic problems, and they have no ability to develop a global plan of trade export with even their closest neighbors. As one poster reminded me, the investment rates in South America are 8 to 13 times better than in the USA. As a result, more investors will seek the Higher Interest rate in those countries vs the USA. And I don't see this trend changing, as it has not for the past 18 years. And with little chance for the USA to grow, and those other countries with more room for growth, the investments and corporations will filter their way. So you see; I'm not hating on the USA nor am I pro China. But If you look at what's going on, you can see the larger picture which will result in a more clear picture of what to expect.
