Iowa Caucuses drew 15% of state's registered Republicans. Why the lower turnout?

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/s...r-snow-donald-trump-expectations/72067396007/

<The Republican Party of Iowa reported that 110,298 Iowans braved a sub-zero Arctic blast on Monday night to caucus at 1,657 precincts across the state. The number of caucusgoers comprised 15% of Iowa's roughly 752,200 registered Republicans. That falls short of the 20% to nearly 30% of Republicans who caucused in recent years, experts say.>

Why the lower turnout is plain and simple - Trump was going to win it anyway and it was wicked cold.

<The weather was a definite factor on the turnout, said Tim Hagle, a University of Iowa associate professor of political science, on Tuesday. Former President Trump's expected trouncing of competitors was another.>

Yep - even a college prof was able to sort out the simplicity of it.

The spin being given to these results seems incredible to me. Incredible, as in not credible.

NPR for example buries the turnout as its last and least prominent fifth takeaway in this article,

5 takeaways from the Iowa Republican caucuses

But before it gets to even its first takeaway, the article states that,

"Former President Donald Trump won in a landslide."

A Landslide!

Hardly.

Iowa's eligible voting population is 2,476,882

About 2% of eligible voters in Iowa showed up and voted for DFT.

DeSantis and Haley each received votes representing about 1% of eligible voters.



From this I see NPR's last statement to be the one most important takeaway from these results:

"It's pretty amazing for so few voters to play such a prominent role in the presidential nominating process."

 

It’s a caucus, of course the turnout is low

 

The top options were a criminal and a guy who wears high heels with no charisma.

 

The weather might have played a role.

 

It was hardly a "landslide" victory for DFT is my point.

 

Weather probably had some impact.

 

maybe Republicans did not count all the votes, maybe it really was a record turnout?

Did Trumpers steal the election from Haley?

 

It was a landslide in comparison to those that managed to show up (do PRIMARILY to the weather). Let's put it this way. In order to be a success in the caucuses, each person had to receive at least 25% of the available vote (4 candidates divided into 100 percent). Only ONE person did that. He received 51 percent of that vote (more than doubling what is considered success.) The others received 21, 19, and 8 percent respectively. They didn't even make the minimum for success. In other words, a landslide by any definition.

 

This! Apparently, the love for Trump didn't go far enough for his voters to show up, even if that meant that they'd die, as he demanded.

Back to the OP. I think this shows how flawed the current primary system is. Why is it that each voter in Iowa and NH get to personally meet and greet every candidate personally, while voters in states late in the primaries that are either solid red or blue do not see any candidate at all? In Iowa, roughly $600 were spent on EACH VOTE. And that's just in the GOP primary that was almost a foregone conclusion. Imagine the spending it it actually had been a contest. This is getting out of hand.

It's like one of the manifestations in the US political system that gives certain demographics much more power at the ballot box than others. At least, the sequence of the primaries should be random. I realize that this is an issue controlled by the parties, and they can do whatever they please, but it still has to be said.

 

Or no sequence at all. Run it like an election. Everyone in every state votes on the same day.

 

That's the thing about their primary system. 20% is considered a good turnout.

 

Despite having no evidence, I'm just going to go ahead and say DONALD TRUMP STOLE THIS PRIMARY THROUGH ELECTION FRAUD.

And because I've said it, it must be true.

 

OK, I was going to post something serious but this truly sums things up!

 

It's obvious that the Iowa caucus was rigged for mango mussolini. Some of those folks dropped numerous hand written scrap paper ballots into those paper bags and cardboard popcorn buckets they used to collect the votes.

Voter fraud!

 

If this had happened in a general with a dem winning, the far radicalized RW would have ransacked the capital on the urgings of the losing candidate and the out going incumbent! Oh wait...

 

I posted this elsewhere but I'll note it again here... I was watching a FOX "news" program after I had heard this low turnout stat. The host, clearly said it was a record turnout AND, the guest agreed with him and they both fawned. It's was a bit surreal but I'll get over it.

 

A landslide is usually considered when a candidate wins by 15 points or more over the opposing candidate of those who actually voted. Trump’s 30-point win certainly qualifies. I agree with the article that the cold weather and the fact it was known that Trump was going to win held down republican voter participation. Looking at your way, Biden received 51% of all those who voted in 2020, which was 32% of eligible voters.


The primary process always has few people. Most states have closed primaries where only registered Democrats can vote in the democratic primaries and only registered republican can vote in theirs. Independents can’t vote in either. According to Gallup, independents make up 40% of the electorate which have no say in who either major party nominates. In 2020 15% of all eligible voters voted in the democratic primaries, their choice Biden. 11% of all eligible voters voted in the republican primaries, their choice Biden. What you had is 26% of all Americans deciding who would be the two major parties’ nominees. Then for the general election, 62% of all Americans decide who would become president. The 62% voter turnout was the highest voter turnout since 1960. The average voter turnout in a presidential election is 55% of eligible voters. For midterms, that drops down to 40%.

 

but the votes do not show a record turn out, this proves trumpers did not count all the votes

 

Oh my!

 

While I think the primary takeaway is that 49% of the vote went against Trump, just divided up (mostly) between 3 other pretty bad candidates...

 

Joe should keep him off the final ballot, I mean it’s his job to protect elections, even when he’s just making up ****.

 

You really believe that, don't you? I'm guessing you watch "Morning Joe" quite a bit.

 

Do I believe 100 - 51 = 49?? Why yes, yes I do... Since early elementary school.

 

Well, it is EXACTLY what the results show.

 

I noted elsewhere that this election was different from other primaries in which Trump ran.

First (and I don’t see anyone pointing this out), this is the very first contested election that Donald Trump EVER won by majority vote. All his other primary victories were in contested rates in which he got winner-take-all delegates in elections in which he got less than 50% of the vote.

Second, no one in Trump world rushed to their keyboards to proclaim their hero’s victory. None.

I think they all know that this was an expected turnout, and even then the victory margin was very thin, in a very red, bible thumping state.