Joe Manchin won’t run for reelection, giving GOP an opening to flip West Virginia seat

Wow, three different threads already, on Manchin speculation-- and not one on Jill Stein announcing her actual campaign (LOL). I had a little trouble finding my way back here, but since this is the one in which we've been talking about No Labels, I thought I'd share an article:

https://www.inquirer.com/columnists...presidential-bid-2024-no-labels-20230516.html

<Snip>
The No Labels folks — with a center-right agenda that caused The Intercept in 2018 to suggest that maybe the group should be labelled “Republican” — have tended to oppose a progressive platform (universal health care, free public college) and sought work requirements for social programs like food stamps, while supporting some tame moderate ideas like gun background checks or infrastructure spending. As critics have pointed out, No Labels, despite its branding, does take a side: pro-billionaire, backed by a rogues’ gallery of corporate CEOs. One of its biggest recent donors is Dallas real-estate mogul Harlan Crow, the sugar daddy of right-wing Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas. (... a No Labels-related PAC also received $500,000 from... Rupert Murdoch.)

Despite the fact there’s much overlap between No Labels’ policies and Biden’s goals — including the infrastructure and semiconductor bills — the group has raised that whopping $70 million for the ambitious project to mount an independent, third-party campaign if both parties nominate “unacceptably divisive candidates.” The GOP? Check. But Biden, seriously? Democratic qualms about their standard bearer center on his age and, among young voters, that he’s not progressive enough. Only Fox News brainwashing victims think POTUS 46 is “divisive.”

But as Anton Chekhov would surely tell us, do not place $70 million on the table in the first act unless you plan to burn it, spectacularly, in Act Three. Never mind that America has never really come that close to electing a third-party president; even a popular ex-POTUS like Theodore Roosevelt couldn’t pull it off and a seeming zeitgeist-catcher in 1992′s Ross Perot won only 19%. The No Labels scheme isn’t even known yet to most voters and has virtually no popular support, yet its kamikaze momentum seems unstoppable.

And in Manchin, this political idea from heck seems to have found its perfect match.

The politics is perfect fit, for sure. Like No Labels, nominal Democrat Manchin can be occasionally OK (confirming Biden judges, surprisingly greenlighting a climate bill) but for the most part is more conservative than even his “centrist” reputation. And he keeps moving right. Just months after supporting that bill, he now says he will oppose any nominees to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency who back Biden’s “radical climate agenda.” He said this after returning from the key state of Iowa, where he called himself “fiscally responsible and socially compassionate.” (Read my earlier columns about Manchin’s corruption and destructive politics.)

He sure sounds like a presidential candidate, especially when he declared “everything is on the table.”
...
But the other thing that a Manchin-No Labels campaign would accomplish would be electing Trump, the most “unacceptably divisive candidate” in American history. It’s true that the impact of third-party candidates is unpredictable; most experts believe, for example, that Perot took votes equally from Bill Clinton and George W. Bush. But the informed hunch is that a three-way race in 2024 would help Trump return to the White House.

Some of it is simple math: Nominally, there’d be two Democrats — a traditional one in Biden and a conservative one in Manchin — facing one Republican, likely to be Trump. What’s more, Manchin’s appeal isn’t his charisma — he has very little — but for folks who don’t really like Trump or Biden. With just two choices in 2020, those voters broke for Biden and gave him the margin of victory. Trump might be loathed by the majority, but he also has the most rabid base of supporters, which is critical in a multi-candidate race.

Here’s the reality: The billionaires funding No Labels would indeed love the all-but-impossible Manchin administration, but too many of them would also be perfectly OK with the 21st-century fascism of Trump 47, as long as that kept corporate taxes low and meant more pro-business judges. No one should fall for this Trojan horse of a presidential campaign.
<End>



I'll just mention this other interesting article, with a different take, by someone who seems well acquainted with Sen. Manchin. He suggests the possibility that Manchin might use an abbreviated run, under the No Labels name, as a way to boost his reputation as a maverick, as independent from his Party, and thus help him, in a change of heart run for another term in the Senate. I am not endorsing this view, only saying that it is an interesting take.

https://www.taxnotes.com/featured-a...g-president-definitely-brand/2023/07/21/7gzr0


The first article, I snipped at top, suggested that a Presidential run by Manchin would boost his value as a "rainmaker" or as a lobbyist, starting in 2025. I was unsure of what he'd meant by, "rainmaker," so looked it up:

INFORMAL•NORTH AMERICAN
a person who generates income for a business or organization by brokering deals or attracting clients or funds.

 

And here is an article on Manchin, himself. Apparently the NY Times had done an article on his really outrageous corruption (in 2022). Here is an abridged description, from Salon:

https://www.salon.com/2022/03/29/a-...ctly-how-joe-manchin-made-millions-from-coal/

<Snip>
...A company owned by Manchin provided the Grant Town plant "gob," (an acronym for garbage of bituminous), a mining byproduct of coal and rock which can be used to produce electricity. The Grant Town power plant has been the only customer for over 20 years. So a portion of the plant's electricity revenue, which comes from the electric bills played by Machin's constituents, goes directly into the senator's pockets. Because Gob is less energy efficient than pure coal, West Virginians have lost millions of dollars in excess electricity fees over the years.

The Times investigation highlights how Manchin's political agenda has aided the power plant over the years.

Reporting reveals that Manchin championed tax credits that aided the plant and was involved in enabling a rate increase that hiked electricity prices for West Virginians, therefore benefiting himself economically through the plant's increased revenue. Manchin has also been a vocal dissenter of the Environmental Protection Agency's proposed limits on power plant emissions.
<End Snip>

 

This 4 1/2 minute video also breaks down the story:



But, as bad all those machinations were to sell his own dirty fuel to an electric plant, stymieing environmental protections to do so, and making more profit off the higher rates paid by WV residents, because of (aside from its toxicity) the inefficiency of his "gob," Joe's personal business ventures are not the only impurities, clouding his actions. He also seems patently on the take, from other business interests.

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=711168036935564

 

Whom are you addressing? The quoted post does not say what you accuse it of.

 

Ok, but Manchin was not born to wealth.

 

But, but, but Citizens United lol

 

Even political parties and candidates don't disclose all their money. "Dark money" or contributions to 501c3 and 501c4 organizations who coordinate with those campaigns has grown since 2013. Only contributions directly to candidates are made known. By March 2024, No Labels needs to be listed in at least than 25 states when they have their prosed split than Dems. Biden is just beginning to attack


For tNo Labels, they are now listed in 12 states. By March 2024, they will need to be listed in 25 states before they have their proposed convention. And by July or August, they will need to be listed in all 50 states plus DC just to have a chance. Right now, most voters are venting and that is reflected in the polls. But I feel voters from the GOP will be more split if DJT is the GOP nominee than the Democrats.

 

whose comment did I quote in that post

 

Thanks for posting these links. I hadn't looked closely at his policy history, but upon further review I'm not that big on him and would like to retract my statement "prefer him over Biden". I would prefer him over Trump, though. I do not want him to run as a third party candidate, initial thought was as the Democrat nominee instead of Biden, but I feel less inclined for that. I had a feeling Biden would step out of the race, but now I think that as long as Trump is leading the Repub nomination, Biden will feel like he must run.
Oh well, hopefully he just goes off to his mountain.

 

WSJ had an article on who the early donors were and they were Andrew Tisch, Ron Shaich, Dave Morin, and Michael Bloomberg. In 2023, it was Harlan Crow who supported No Labels Org reported by The New Republic.

 

In my opinion, No Labels a reincarnation of the Reform Party, and Jill Stein will again be the nominee for the Green Party.

 

Well, they look like democracy "gems".

 

For sure I would vote for him, he is such great businessman! He made millions from coal!
https://www.salon.com/2022/03/29/a-...ctly-how-joe-manchin-made-millions-from-coal/

I hope he will appoint his daughter Heather Bresch as the head of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) – her achievements:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heather_Bresch

In 2007, The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reported that Bresch had claimed to have an MBA degree from West Virginia University, but the university disputed that. The university subsequently awarded her an EMBA despite her having completed only 26 of the required 48 credits. Her father was governor of the state of West Virginia at the time.

She increased the price of EpiPens by 461 percent, from about $100 for a package of two pens to about $600.

from 2007 to 2015, Bresch's compensation rose from $2,453,456 to $18,931,068, a 671% increase in pay.


Joe Manchin declined to call on Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) to step down following his federal indictment on bribery and corruption charges – a very smart move!

Support president Joe Manchin!

 

Ever since the Citizens United decision, "dark money" has become more and more prominent in every aspect of American politics. Welcome to modern democracy.

 

Hummm, not sure I'd call that "modern" democracy when you dig deep into the big money influncers of SCOTUS. Seems like the game is so badly rigged now that corruption rules the day, all day.

 

I'm going to assume you're being heavily sarcastic! At least I hope you are! lol
Had not seen that about his daughter. The more I learn about Manchin, the less appealing he is as a politician.

 

The GOP was going to win this seat whether Manchin ran or not. He voted for all of Bribed Joes debt spending that lit the inflation that's destroying middle and working class living standards.

 

Can something that hasn't died, be "reincarnated?"

https://reformparty.org/


As for Stein: she seems like a dope; and serves, at best, as a "useful idiot," for Putin-- that is, assuming she doesn't realize that this is what she's doing. Even when I was a Green, I would not have voted for her; and I certainly wouldn't waste a vote that way, in a Trump- Biden rematch. While I tend to believe that Biden will get much more support than indicated by current polls, nevertheless, we know that it will problem come down to just a handful of close states, so that having a number of additional candidates, siphoning off votes, cannot be taken too lightly.

 

I don't see/read(etc) any big donors backing any possible 3rd party candidate, which is a big hindrance to run these days. And with Citizens United in full gear, it will be hard for any 3rd party to break that ice.

 

True, elections are all about money, some say money is the biggest or the main reason in deciding who wins or loses. In fact, since 1960 the presidential candidate with the most money to spend has won in all election with two exceptions. 1964 and 2016. In 2020 Biden spent 1.6 billion rounding off to Trump’s 1.1 billion. Poor little Jo Jorgensen, the Libertarian was in third place money wise with a bit less than 3 million dollars. You’re not going to win being outspent by the two major parties 2.7 billion to 3 million.

https://www.opensecrets.org/2020-presidential-race

I’m not certain about the no labels party, but RFK Jr. seems to be doing alright if this article is correct.

RFK Jr.’s donor data reveals his 2024 threat

https://www.yahoo.com/news/rfk-jr-2024-bid-threat-090100129.html

But to be a viable candidate with a real chance to win, I’d say RFK Jr. or the no labels party would need to raise and spend at least a billion dollars. Now if RFK Jr. continues to get good money donated, he and if the no labels party does the same, either or one of them could rack up a good vote total giving those voters who dislike both and don’t want neither one to become the next president. Which at the moment makes up at least a third of the electorate. Time will, but the money race is something we need to keep an eye on.

 

And the claim that his resignation 'created an opening'? The GOP was taking this seat whether Manchin ran or not.

 

Wow, that is funny!

On Friday, Midler retweeted a picture of the stunt with the caption: “Here we can see a dog’s *******. Right next to it is the butt of Jim Justice’s dog.”

***
“What Joe Manchin, who represents a population smaller than Brooklyn, has done to the rest of America, who wants to move forward, not backward, like his state, is horrible,” Midler tweeted.

“He sold us out. He wants us all to be just like his state, West Virginia. Poor, illiterate and strung out.”

The Divine Miss M, very funny, but incorrect regarding the excellent folks I know from WV.

 

WV has their share of poor, illiterate and strung out, but it's obviously not the whole state...

WV would be the perfect place (small size) for an analysis of why any state would support a vain NY real estate conman who couldn't give the first crap about any of them......

 

I disagree with lumping LBJ in this group, but yeah, with the help of Lady Bird's inheritance they bought a radio station that turned out to be a bit of cash cow for them, in Austin of all places.
Manchin I suppose I grudgingly have to give a small amount of credit to for the D positions he does support, but I certainly won't be even remotely interested in voting for him. All his run would achieve is to help put DFT back in office. And I confer upon him the sins of his daughter. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heather_Bresch

 

It makes no sense to me why anyone supports DFT, other than that Darth Cheney somehow managed to orchestrate it, which still makes no sense to me.