Michael Moore: Trump Will Win in 2020 if Democrats Nominate Another ’Centrist Moderate’ like Hillary

Yes, bless 'em.

Not that it'll tone down the inevitable lability.

 

Do you have someone prompting you to spout non sequiturs?

 

Democrats aren't touting "open borders." That's a Trump lie you're repeating here as propaganda.

 

This is from the person who can't or won't look at graphs high school students understand? Really? Here are the two graphs--the first one shows real wages (wages adjusted for inflation) have gone up less than 1% under Trump, the second shows economic growth under Trump is about the dame it was under Obama from 2013-15.

 

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/democrats-double-down-on-open-borders

https://thehill.com/opinion/immigration/452311-pavlich-open-border-democrats

 

Trump's Gains With Black Voters Could Swing Election

 

Not true! I have looked at them.. And MPO they don't match the mood or vigorous hustle and bustle I see every day in my part of the woods.. Now when Mr. Obatard was in office and seen all them leftygraphs of how well we were doing I didn't see any of it here and I also didn't believe those bullshit lines either.. I guess its a area effect, we're doing swell and apparently your lil neck of the woods in suxation, I'm sorry for your loss

 

Just a baby elephant, at this point, polly

Joe is in the driver's seat … which is a good thing since, in my estimation, he has a much better chance to defeat impeached republican criminal trump than either of the two too-far-left senators (Sanders, Warren).

Some seem to think, by the way, that a rookie mayor from Indiana is the answer.

Come on, fellow Dems, 2020 is almost here. Silly Season is officially OVER!

Anyway, back to Mike.

He has aged better than Joe. He's clearly sharper mentally and would likely be more capable of serving two terms in office.

As a New Yorker and a VASTLY superior businessman, he knows impeached republican criminal trump best.

He knows how to expose the impeached republican criminal … and, obviously, has no shortage of loot to deploy in this patriotic endeavor.

The first four Dem nominating contests could very well produce three different winners, so no one likely comes out with big momentum.

All things considered, Mike is your superior Dem candidate.

Dude is a smart, undramatic, workmanlike problem solver.

In other words, exactly what this country needs after four chaotic years with this impeached republican DRAMA QUEEN.


BLOOMBERG 2020

 

Just to put this into historical perspective we can go back to the 80's when Pat Robertson started the (im)Moral Majority movement. Bush sr wanted nothing to do with it which is why he lost IMO. But it was the beginnings of the GOP abandoning the center-right and moving to the hard-right as we saw with Gingrich and his hardline policies. Back then the electorate was still primarily in the center and he did not get much traction.

The impeachment of Clinton was DRIVEN by the bogus "family values" idiocy and the evangelicals were driven to the polls with the hardline God, Gays and Guns mantra. As such the GOP moved further to the right and Herr Rove seized the opportunity to pander to them in order to impose the Bush.Regime on the nation. At that point the GOP was now on the hard right but not yet on the EXTREME right. That occurred during the Obama era and it culminated with the imposition of the IMPOTUS.

The Dems in the meanwhile recognized that center moderate voters were being abandoned by the GOP as it moved further and further to the right. As a strategy it was a DISMAL FAILURE because the Wass Street Casino Banksters took control over the Dem leadership Establishment and turned it into the GOP-Lite. For every additional center-right moderate the Dems gained they LOST 1.5 voters on the LEFT.

This EROSION of the Dem base continued up until 200* when Obama was able to rekindle the hope that once existed with the Left. Unfortunately Obama never lived up to expectations and the Left had lapsed back into political apathy by 2016 while the Extreme right were conducting a DEMONIZATION campaign of Hillary Clinton. That she almost won says volumes about where the nation stands as far as being right-center-left goes.

The 2016 campaign was UNUSUAL because for the first time in probably close to a Century the concepts of Socialism were OPENLY debated on the national stage and it was surprising how well they RESONATED with an electorate that had POLARIZED between the Extreme Right and the Apathetic Left. While it did not affect the 2016 outcome it ENERGIZED the Left to DO SOMETHING!

The Special elections, Off-year elections and Midterm elections all told the same story about the energized Left which are now the Progressives AKA hard-left. They realized that the FAILURE of the Establishment Dems was because the party had ABANDONED their supporters in the Left. The fight is on within the DP for who will control the party in the future and the Progressives have both time and demographics on their side. They have NULLIFIED the malign influence of the Wall Street Casino Banksters with ActBlue and are now poised to fight for the future of the nation in 2020.

There are 153 million RV's and only 129 million voted in 2016. That leaves 14 million votes up for grabs and the bulk of those are on the apathetic left. The record setting Midterm turnout is a strong indication that the Progressive GOTV program is reaching those millions.

The wisdom that whomever appeals to the center "wins" did NOT really apply in 2016. The IMPOTUS was an ABERRATION, a REALITY TV show that interrupted the normal general election already in progress. Voters were INUNDATED with a DELUGE of DISINFORMATION about Hillary and Prime time coverage of a carnival shyster promising to deliver everything to everyone. If it sounds to good to be true...

Which brings us to 2020! The IMPOTUS is still formidable as an opponent but has proven to be a One-Trick-Pony-Show that everyone has seen before and no one is going to watch the Re-Runs. That leaves the field wide open for the Dems and the battle is now on between the Establishment and the Progressives.

I do not know which is going to prevail but the Progressives are the KEY to the Dems winning. It would be foolish to discount and disparage them because without them the nation is DOOMED to another 4 years of PURGATORY under the GOP.

The Independents do still have a say in the outcome but how they will choose will depend upon whether they want another 4 years of the Orange Drama-Llama or something closer to SANITY instead because those are going to be their choices IMO.

 

The 2020 Dem primaries are NOT going to be the same as the 2016 because CA has moved their primary up to March 3rd.

Winning CA could make up for any losses in the earlier races.

CA is the KEY to the 2020 Dem Primary nomination IMO. Whomever wins there is the most likely to be the candidate and it is a tossup between the top 3 and it changes with every new poll. Right now Sanders could defeat Biden. Next week it could be Warren.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/california/

 

Looks like your candidate will be Slo-Joe.

 

The Federalist has zero credibility!

https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/the-federalist/

 

But. at THIS Point--This is How I see it.

Several Super Tuesday States (not including California) have big delegate hauls where Biden will be favored (in some cases heavily favored).

Biden will be riding high after a Big Win in SC (three days earlier) and will be favored in:

Alabama
Arkansas
North Carolina
Oklahoma
Tennessee
Texas
Virginia

___________

Biden could also win some other states (and he will undoubtedly hit the 15% threshold to get delegates even in the states he loses).

It seems like a certainty that Biden will have the delegate lead after Super Tuesday.

The only question is HOW BIG?

But, AFTER Super Tuesday, and the States going on March 10, March 17, and March 24th...

Biden could conceivably run the table.

The Delegate Count AFTER the March 24th Primaries will be the KEY Number.

Here is an article from 538 that games out the possibility of Biden sweeping all of the remaining March Primaries (after Super Tuesday):

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/whos-leading-the-democratic-primary-in-super-tuesday-states/

Still early, things can change...But, Still...

 

Be a shame if there were millions of conservatives registered as independents in California who vote for underdogs like Tulsi.

That really could shake up the early primaries.

 

Hmm. I just happen to be one of them.

Now there's a thought. Hmm.

 

I doubt that will happen, but even if it did it wouldn't amount to more than a "ripple".

Especially with the 15% Threshold to get Delegates.

The Idea that Tulsi could get enough "Conservative Independent" Votes (in the handful of states that allow it) to reach 15% (in this sort of Multi-Candidate Field) seems like something beyond fantasy.

 

Sometimes I think this man is Levar Burton...you don't have to take my word for it.



Serious question-do they still show reading rainbow in schools?

 

As far as commies/socialists/California democrats can tell-im just a pooh whittle lefty.

Be a shame if it impacted the dem primaries, right AJ?

 

Yeah?

EXCEPT...It WON'T Happen...

...And, even if it did (it would be an Insignificant "ripple").

I would file that sort of story ("The Indies are going to cause havoc in the Dem Primaries")...

...Right along with that speech that Bernie gave "AFTER His Recent Heart Attack" (that speech that Bernie Gave 2 1/2 Years Ago. ).

^Both FAKE Narratives that are Equally Incredible.

And, anybody who thinks that Tulsi has a prayer of getting 15% in California hasn't been following the campaign.

 

If Biden manages an EARLY LEAD then I agree but if it is still COMPETITIVE heading into Super Tuesday then it will be up for grabs IMO.

Right now it is still between those 3.

 

So why don't you produce some polls supporting your underdog in CA?

Is it because she doesn't have any such support?

 

Sounds like Dems are between a rock and a hard place. Too bad.

 

The thing is that during the primaries you're trying to win the left's or the right's vote to gain the nomination. During the general one needs to try to capture the independent voter. How does one do that? You don't talk about Medicare for all, about reparations, about illegal immigration, free college for all, raising taxes etc. etc.

You talk about fixing the infrastructure, the fair wage, fixing healthcare, find subjects or issues where the majority of Americans agree with you and stay fixated on them. Forgetting what you just campaigned on during the primaries.

 

Okay, I understand your point of view. I'm going to take you back to Eisenhower for party affiliation. After he left office in 1960 the Republican Party has been fairly steady in the percentage of Americans who identify with them. Roughly 27% with some ups and downs of a few points from IKE to the present. Back during IKE the GOP was more or less known as the country club party. The party of business. There's really no difference between 1960 when the GOP was at 29% of the electorate to today's 28%.

https://www.people-press.org/interactives/party-id-trend/

Now the Democrats started out with 46% of the electorate in 1960 and had high's of 51% in 1961 and 1964. But the democrats did average out to 45% between IKE and Reagan. Reagan did indeed change things. The GOP rose at or above 30% while the Democrats fell to an average of 35% from Reagan until Obama. Today if one believes Gallup, the Democrats are at 31%.

Exactly what and why these changes took place can be debated, Your's is as good as any, but I think misses some points. Prior to Reagan the Democratic Party was known as the big tent party, it had it conservative, moderate and liberal wings. It represented the middle class, the working class, not business. Under Reagan it lost or shed its conservative wing while the GOP was getting rid of its liberal Rockefeller Northeastern wing. I'd say both parties under Reagan became more ideological orientated, representing ideology than representing people. That both parties divided the electorate into groups and started to pit different groups against each other. Religious against non-religious, pro vs. anti abortionist, women vs. men, blacks vs. whites, gays vs. straights, immigrants against native born, college educated against non college attendees, etc. etc. Both parties have adopted a strategy of divide and conquer, of pitting one group of voters against the other, of trying to get the voter to hate the other guy more than they hate you with all the negative personal attacks. Very little of campaigning nowadays is about new ideas, solutions to our problems, visions of where the candidates wants to take the country. This has caused the polarization, the mega partisanship, the divisiveness we see in today's politics.

You touched on some very important issues and events. I think there is still more to be touched on. But the bottom line is that since Eisenhower, the Republican Party really hasn't gained or lost folks who identify with them. It's the Democratic Party that has dropped around 15 points. If you look back to 1960, independents made up 23% of the electorate, today they're at 40%. The Republican Party has remained stagnated. Like the Country Club of old, not adding any new members, but not losing any either. Those who left the Democratic Party didn't become Republicans, I don't think they cared for the GOP at all. They just moved out of the Democratic Party to become non-affiliated, swing voters, pick and choose candidates instead of being loyal Democrats. They're loyal to no party. My take.

 

You continue promoting the "open borders" falsehood.

This is an "open border"...


"Open Border" ... France and Germany

This is not...


Border USA and Canada - Blaine, WA