Putting the Coronavirus map into its proper prospective.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-in-us.html

https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...00313-sitrep-53-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=adb3f72_2

Understand that alot of the "confirmed" cases will not be as a result of the virus spreading, but that it *already spread*. This panic and overreaction? It came way too late.

The actual reality is, is that this virus is already well contained and under control. The real stage we're at right now, is that more and more people are going to recover. And yes, unfortunately some will die.

But now that 46 out of 50 States have it, it's pretty much within our system. This is good news. The chance for a further outbreak is next to impossible. This is why we continue to get the wash your hands advice.

Based on actual mathematics and actual probability, I project less than 15,000 Americans will actually have the virus, and of that 15,000 I project that at the very worst, 5,000 will die.(Only 41 have died at the time of this writing.)

It's called scaling. Right now, we have 1,629 cases to 41 deaths.

If we look at the global map: 132,758 cases have occurred worldwide to......4,955 deaths.

How about China: 80,991 cases....3,180 deaths.

As I analyze the numbers for you, do you guys get it now? Even IF this is higher than flu rates, it's still substantially small as to be microscopic from a mathematical standpoint.

The 15,000 number I project is a very strong number because there's only 50,000 non-Chinese cases at the time of the latest report. In fact, I might be OVERSTATING it.

To put my 15,000 number in proper prospective, I'm saying that the worst TOTAL case would be that of Italy. But we're nowhere near there as of now.

I think the biggest problem has been conflation. We are conflating ourselves to the Chinese numbers(since gotten under control lately) as well as Italy. But those are not our projected's right now.

Could it get worse? It could, but the math does not support that conclusion, or this fear as of now.

 

All of that and the stock market took off like a rocket again today The political Left switches over to deep mourning. One wonders what they will do next to try and drop this nation to its knees.

 

The Chinese also live in much closer quarters to one another than we do, in my area we're looking at about 150 people per square kilometre, Melbourne suburbs is somewhere in the vicinity of 1500 per square kilometre (outdated data maybe), the city & high rise apartments obviously much denser and more likely to become a serious problem in these areas.... imo

 

This is also a key thing. Most of the viral spread has been through close contact with those infected, and to have contact with areas where the virus is. That's why self-quarantine is generally a good thing, until we get this under control. What I don't get, is blaming the administration for the shortage, compared to the vastly greater demand(the demand in of itself, the math looks like is being overstated.)

I think we just need to put it in its proper prospective: It's here, it's a new viral addition to the virus family but as soon as we get a vaccine we'll be as protected as possible against this new threat.

 

The Trump administration probably doesn't deserve as much blame as the left-wing talking heads want them to take. This is new territory right now, both for our government and for our society. It is also a learning situation that will hopefully be used to improve our protocols and practices so that we are better prepared to meet future pandemics.

Now that said, Trump himself has been a buffoon up until a couple days ago. Many in his administration with functional brains and eyes that see more than dollars signs and stock market tickers have been pressing him to take this seriously for weeks. So I say his administration in general probably deserves less blame since they have tried to take this seriously, but Trump himself should not be included in that assessment.

Although he does now seem to finally be taking it seriously and has a great chance to be an actual leader, if he so chooses to be and can manage not to try and make this all about him.

 

It will infect 150 million or so some experts say. The kill rate not settled yet but may be 1 to 3 percent Or 10 10 to 15 percent worse than yearly flu.

Lets see who is closer once the cycle is complete .

 

We have more cases unknown than there are known. South Korea tests more people in one day than our country has tested in total. That's all thanks to the retard in the White House.

 

From what I understand, it's a logistics problem. There's far more demand then there is supply, we also heard that China is withholding test kits too.

 

LMAO...Took off like Mad Mike's rocket, eh? What a hoot.

 

Could he have declared a national emergency sooner? He could have, but that would have indeed instilled panic and not confidence(or actually, given that it's HIM specifically, we can argue it would've had fear regardless. He was fighting against the inevitable.). But let's put this "national emergency" into prospective too:

-Even with it, we don't have enough kits.
-And while yes, I guess knowing more who has it is helpful to a degree, not to the extent that the travel to the testing sites is actually worth it.

What we really learned is if you yelp a lot, you can control the opposing administration. I hope we do this with a President Biden.

 

Not to mention that trump and his clan of bs producers either implied or claimed this was a liberal conspiracy. That is what pissed me off the most. Even when faced with a looming national crisis, he was more worried about his image than the issues. And he refused to accept the fact that stopping travel from China didn't stop the virus. He is in his typical pathological state of denial and disinformation.

He was in denial and the markets reacted according to his chaos. When he started showing signs that he is waking up to reality, the markets went up.

 

Trump knows that he has a following that hangs on his every word. He knows that his tweets reach millions of people directly, and millions and millions more by being shared across all the other social and regular media websites. He could have used his voice to prepare Americans. Instead he downplayed it, literally until the point that he could no longer deny that he himself could potentially have it due to his proximity to others who've tested positive.

As far as testing kits go, I'm not sure what his total pull there is. I'm sure the ball could have been gotten to move earlier, but who knows. Hindsight makes it easy to assume.

But hindsight can also be a tool, because it doesn't have to be applied after a long duration. You can use hindsight to analyze what happened yesterday. An hour ago. 10 minutes ago.

Every day, a responsible adult Trump could have been using hindsight, or listening to those in his administration who were, to analyze the situation and take it seriously, and then communicate, even if in his usual style, that this was something to be taken credibly, even if it wasn't to the point of needing to lose your mind over.

It was a personal failing as much as a professional one.

But as I said, he can still be a good leader. And if he uses hindsight and lets it inform his actions, he could start being a good leader right now.

Oh we already knew that.

 

But then, what's the point of having elections then? We believe(rather wrongly, as it turns out) that we have an executive branch and elected officials, whom use their judgment(rightly or wrongly) to make decisions. WHO had largely supported the idea of self-quarantine, and that it's contributed to the slow growth rate here in the United States.

We haven't done anything wrong when it comes to containing the virus, In fact, we're enjoying greater success than that of the EU and of Asia. Especially considering the travel and everyone who could've been a possible carrier.

 

Viruses for the common cold are extremely contagious and are airborne pathogens. 80% of the people who come down with the common cold certainly know they are sick. In fact, caused by a runny nose, headachy feeling, shortness of breath, coughing spells, they are quite miserable. The symptoms last for about two weeks.

For the other 20%, the common cold can be quite serious. Many are elderly with underlying conditions such as respiratory ailments, heart conditions, and weaken immune systems. A very small percentage of these people die from the common cold.

Sound familiar?

Five people have died in the U.S. since yesterday. That compares easily to the number of people who died last year and the year before that of the common cold or illnesses brought on by the common cold such as pneumonia.

In 2018, an average 641 people died of lung cancer in the U.S.

Are we going a little overboard on all this? Just asking.

45 people have died in the U.S., 41 in Seattle-area nursing homes.

 

In Italy, a country with one of the world’s oldest populations, a March 4 analysis by the national health institute found that of the 105 patients who died from the virus, the average age was 81. This put a 20-year gap between the average age of people who tested positive for the virus and the deceased, the institute said. On Friday, an ICU physician in Lombardy — the epicenter of Italy’s outbreak — told JAMA there have been only two deaths of people under the age of 50.

https://www.vox.com/2020/3/12/21173783/coronavirus-death-age-covid-19-elderly-seniors

 

Lots of people die of lots of things each day in the US, somewhere around 7500. Around three million a year. Compared to that, this virus is of little or no concern.

I will take actions to protect myself as should everyone, but I am not going to spend a minute worrying about it

I am more concerned about the actions required to prevent the spread than I am of the virus itself.

 

Are you assuming the transmission rate won't go up from today?

 

And then TODAY, after knowing he has been exposed to someone who tested positive, and where now two other people who were at Mar a Lago also tested positive, one is now showing symptoms, and trump has so far not only refused to be tested, but made a point to shake hands with everyone running the first lines of defense against this!!! He was shaking hands with the people we need the most, knowingly presenting a threat to those people. UNBELIEVABLE!!!! One guy make a point to elbow bump instead of shaking hands.

One can only watch in disbelief...

 

Pretty much, especially when overlayed with the other countries we see a growing pattern here. Maybe 10% of a general population will be affected, but at or less than 5% will be severe, if we look at the numbers as they are now and extrapolate them.

A lot of the "400,000" etc is projecting an increase that mathematically isn't there right now and they should actually be ashamed of themselves for using projections that have no basis.

 

What do you mean by it has "already spread"? Are you referring to it has already spread to a bunch of geographical locations in general, or do you mean it has already spread throughout the population at large? If the later, what evidence do you have for asserting that?

I don't understand where you're getting this information from. Just going by the WHO reports they go:
March 1-2: 62
March 3: 64
March 4: 108
March 5: 129
March 6: 148
March 7-9: 213
March 10: 427
March 11: 696
March 12: 987
March 13: 1264
Current (non-WHO) - 1992

How can you consider that contained?

Can you please show or explain how you calculated less than 15,000 will actually have the virus? And also what you mean by "will actually have the virus?" Do you mean will test positive for it? Or will show severe symptoms? Or will ever even contract it?

I personally do think we may be able to contain the infection and death rate to something reasonable (not sure as low as 15K infections), but that's assuming people, businesses, and organizations continue to take it seriously and self quarantine / cut down on unnecessary large gatherings / don't go out while they're sick.

Are you projecting 15K then as a high ball because that is where Italy has gotten to just within the last 24 hours?

 

You could obviously say both for these and the reason is that viruses(In general) last on surfaces and even in air(air droplets) for hours or days at a time. And given public mass transit and the sporting events that until recently very canceled, etc.

It's rather obvious that it has(and will with later confirmation) spread to a good portion of people. That is in part why I made this post.
To clarify that people aren't "walking around spreading it", so much as they already spread it with the first sneeze, cough and contact. I'll elaborate more with your next point as that helps flesh this out alot.

Due to what hospitals are going to do. As these individuals are tested and confirmed for the Coronavirus, what they'll typically do is move the patients into a self-quarantined area. And the more people who are in self-quarantine, the less the virus will have a host to spread it to.

This is also the same reason it's unproductive to have a bunch of people travel out(after canceling sporting events) to make testing one HUGE event lol.(Like, duh.)



As Dr.Gupta says here, once you confirm an outbreak further testing is completely redundant. Trump did these actions, not because he thought it'd help but because it is literally pacifying the masses. These actions needed to be taken two weeks ago, taken now it's nothing more than noise. Which kind of frustrates me because that means this administration(and future administrations) can be bullied with mob mentality. That's great.(The health of our government and political system are secondary of course to this current crisis.)

If we presume that we have quarantined say, even 50% of those who were infected, that means there's less of a chance for a further outbreak. That's why I said, we likely reached the high point. This was spread done, before the self-quarantine. Now with self-quarantines, control mechanisms in place will slow down the spread and confirmation.

The 15K if I'm not mistaken(and if I am, I apologize) was Italy's total and I believe it's the second highest total of all countries affected by the coronavirus.

I'm projecting 15K as a high ball because evaluating the current growth rate of the virus, we're lagging behind nations(with closer proximity) like Japan. Japan, as of this writing doesn't even have 1,000 viruses. Then you look at areas like Sri Lanka, etc.

Once the medical community gets further information, they are going to scale down to where I am. I will be utterly SHOCKED if over 100,000 Americans(that's less than 10% of the total US population, to put it into perspective) end up having the corona virus. I'll still be surprised if 50,000 of us have the virus.

The medical community just doesn't understand math probability, when they made their proclamations.

 

It happened again today. Trump was asked by a reporter about a health agency he eliminated, a health agency designed to help in a pandemic. Trump replied, "I don't know anything about it."

When confronted with the consequences of decisions made by his administration, how many times has Trump said he knows nothing about it and tries to place the blame on someone else? How many times have writers ridiculed Trump for this ploy?

He may be right. If Trump is a mere figurehead and someone else is running the government, it stands to reason that he would be remarkably uninformed and be unaware of decisions made in his name.

Well, according to Trump, the elimination of this agency was done in his name and he knew nothing about it. We also know, particularly when it comes to the covid-19 crisis, he is remarkably uninformed. Even today, with the declaration of a national emergency, he often sounded lost, and what is this about closing our borders? Our borders are not closed.

Also, he denied responsibility of the errors made by his administration in this crisis, and there were many. Pence and the medical experts are owing up to them, but not Trump. He knows nothing about those errors, and he certainly did not make them.

Again, all this fits if Trump is only a figurehead. He confirms that nearly every day.

 

"A health agency". You really expect Trump to know about every single health agency? That is not a reasonable expectation. He is a single person with thousands of people working for him.

 

I don't think you understand math either. 100,000 is NOT merely less than 10% of the U.S. population.

10% of the U.S. population would be roughly 33 MILLION.
1% of the U.S. population would be roughly 3.3 million
.1% of the U.S. population would be roughly 330,000.
100,000 Americans would be about .03% of the U.S. population.

 

Ouch lol. Yeah, I didn't mean to sound like a math expert. (I have professed before, my own deficiencies in math). What I do understand is scaling and probability(and to be fair, I did say it was less. So it's not like I was wrong. I just didn't know how right I was.)