Putting the Coronavirus map into its proper prospective.

I believe you're probably right about the scale of the virus problem anyway. Though with 50,000 getting the disease a 1% death rate would be about 500 killed. Really not significant at all on a national scale though I expect the media to hype the hell out of it.

 

Yeah, the national emergency prompted me to make this post. But also thoughts on that 400,000 number recklessly spreading around. It's not impossible that it reaches there...worldwide. But right now, numbers would have to double across the world according to WHO to hit that. And that's for the world.

For the US? It'd take a catastrophic explosion. And I just think the alarmism, even from some in the medical community has been grossly negligent. My hope is that the same medical people start reeling in their own alarmism, and start being pragmatic about what they're saying in the near future.

 

First, thanks for answering my questions! I think that clears up a lot of my questions as to how you are coming to your conclusions.

I think for the notion that people have largely spread it, may be true if measures to prevent further spread are largely successful. Ie, self quarantines, avoiding mass gatherings, cutting down travel, work from home, etc. This really needs to be embraced as a nation as a whole rather quickly to avoid additional hotspots popping up. But I think given the amount of alarm we can already see, it is very likely such measures will be accepted as reasonable more likely than not.

As for projecting growth rates, I'm honestly not sure if there is a good way to do that. Each country has treated the outbreak differently. Among the best at containment has been Taiwan, which announced 14 day quarantines for mainland China travelers and anyone who was in close contact with the someone who had the virus back at the end of December. That was when China was still trying to keep things under wraps. Unfortunately the WHO doesn't recognize them due to CCP pressure.

One thing you may be interested in though is just checking the growth rate of individual countries. If you go to the chart on this site, you can just click on the Infections # for each country to get an idea if expected infections are going up or down. Currently the US is still in the upswing. Japan has also seen a recent acceleration, as has much of Europe. Other than South Korea and China, I'm not aware of any other countries that have peaked. Most first world countries are still accelerating.

One thing on testing though:

As Dr. Gupta also mentions, there is some evidence to believe you can spread the virus before showing symptoms. This is in my opinion a good reason to test those who have needed to self-quarantine due to being a close contact of someone who has COVID-19. Mostly because you also want to make sure if they do have it, you reach all their close contacts as quickly as possible too. Symptoms can show up between 2-14 days later, which is a significant delay on getting to other people who might also be infected. Although if there are concerns about supplies of tests, then it may not be an option.

 

Agreed, there is still a lot that is unknown about this virus. And there isn't an exact number that appears to be solid. I just gave what I thought to be reasonable estimates, given the current growth rate. Which I will acknowledge for the sake of brevity, yes could possibly explode. How is anyone to know whether it would or wouldn't?

I just think it's safer to say it wouldn't explode, then to say "Well, we think there'll be as many as 400,000 cases in the US." When there isn't even that many around the world.

It's one thing to acknowledge the seriousness of it, sure. But part of that, is acknowledging where it stood at the current point, rather than speculating. Basically, speculating without a concrete basis isn't serving anyone.

 

About 10 days ago Italy was running at 400 new cases a day. Today about 2500.


I'm not sure if the measures we have taken are any better that what they were doing 10 days ago.
But since then they have taken tough steps. In a few weeks we might be able to see how they worked.

 

With more testing, more will definitely be confirmed. But I still think the general gist of my message will apply. For the US specifically, we're nowhere near as worse off as Europe and China, and in all likelihood will never be as bad as that. And when we get the vaccine in late 2020-21, we'll get even better.

 

I sure hope your right, cause I'm dead if I get it.
Things around here are shutting down like a bar at closing time.

 

****, I'm an asthmatic lol. I better be right for my own skin lol. I know one thing: If I'm still ticking around when the vaccine comes out, I'mma get that sucker.

 

Apparently, you and Trump are in agreement. Neither of you think health agencies are very important, particularly one that deals with pandemics.

The White House’s National Security Council Directorate for Global Health Security and Biodefense dealt with pandemics. Its was established after the Ebola epidemic of 2014 to do everything possible within the vast powers and resources of the U.S. government to prepare for the next disease outbreak and prevent it from becoming an epidemic or pandemic.

Trump abolished it, and you claim he may not have known anything about it.

Trump may be far worse a President than we thought. He claims not to know many things. He is probably just a figurehead.

 

You don't know what I think. So keep those opinions to yourself.

It is not reasonable for Trump to know what each and everyone of his supervisors have done. Trump is ultimately responsible, but that responsibility is of a general nature rather than being responsible for every single detail. For instance, there are literally thousands of facilities where military personnel are stationed in the world. Would you remember the detail on each and every one of them? It is not realistic to expect anyone to remember details on all of them.

 

democrats just got the CDC to allow people to get tested and treated for free, all it took it this one guy to agree to it

 

I know what you have said. Your remarks are based on your thinking.

But it is reasonable for Trump to take responsibility for what his administration does or doesn't do.

That is not what Trump said.

A reporter asked the president if he took responsibility for the failure of the government he leads to resolve this sooner. “No,” he replied, “I don’t take responsibility at all”.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/trump-i-dont-take-responsibility-at-all-coronavirus.html

 

He is responsible for everything in the executive branch. However, he will not always be directly responsible. It would be a virtual impossibility. There is a subtle difference. If someone does something which turns out to be wrong, all he can do is decide whether that was a reasonable decision at the time and then take appropriate action, if necessary. That is the military version of responsibility. I found that it does not always work that way in civilian life.

I don't always agree with what Trump says. However, at this time he is the president, as imperfect as he is.

Personally, I find most of your posts to be more of an effort to try to take down Trump than anything really useful or informative. Hate rarely accomplishes anything worthwhile.

 

After Trump's many errant statements, whether out of ignorance or deceit, folks should know enough to seek information from the best qualified to provide it.

No one knows the course it will take, or on what schedule, and guessing is useless.

 

Not without a complete personality and character transplant.
You obviously haven't been paying attention to what trump has been doing and saying for the past 40 years.
He could no more turn into a good leader now than an amoeba could turn into a giraffe in a day.
He is what he has always been- a degenerate, lying, narcissistic cripple.
You will never get a silk purse out of that sow's ear.

 

He's an albatross, not a figurehead, and the repubs are realizing that they have to treat him like a retarded uncle and go around behind him, cleaning up his messes, if they want a chance of saving their sorry asses in November.
He shows daily what a complete dotard he is, but his ignorant bullshit doesn't impress a virus.

 

So I made this post on Friday, and it's now Monday night(heading into Tuesday) so let's see where things stand shall we?

We've slightly more than doubled our number of cases(3,487). However, it's not like we've doubled our death rate(67 deaths.) Of course, this is still because cases are still going through their own cycle. More deaths are inevitable to a degree, but it's a good sign that as cases increase, deaths aren't increasing nearly as much.

We're still running at a pace where to get up to 15K, you'd have to triple the number of cases to hit that number. It's not impossible, nor improbable. But that's not the growth rate we have. And it's not even China's growth rate anymore.

To be on the safe side, and I admit that I'm cheating a bit, let's upgrade our minimum from 15K to 30K(This is also on par with Italy's current numbers). To simplify, I'm stating with extreme confidence that our worst case scenario will be Italy's present day totals.

Technically, I could have kept it at 15K. But projecting out that it'll be about July for medicines that are tested for the public, 15K seems like a reachable number(But I still think if we do reach it, it will take at least one month to get there.) So we'll put 30K as our AmericanNationalist barometer. If we have 30,000 cases. Panic then, because that would be more than quadruple our present cases.