Running Newsticker for the War in Ukraine

The war is spreading to Sudan and the Red Sea.

Ukraine Conflict Updates
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 6, 2024

Click here to read the full report.
Key Takeaways:

• The Kremlin appears to be re-intensifying a reflexive control campaign targeting Western decision-making using nuclear threats and diplomatic manipulation.
• Russian elites and Kremlin officials are reportedly vying for influential positions in the Russian government ahead of the Russian presidential inauguration on May 7 to prematurely secure powerful roles in the event that Russian President Vladimir Putin leaves power around the end of his new term.
• A Russian insider source, who has routinely been accurate about past Russian military command changes, claimed that the Russian military command appointed the commanders and chiefs of staff of the newly formed Leningrad and Moscow military districts (LMD and MMD).
• The Kremlin continues tightening the restrictions on individuals it designates as “foreign agents,” restricting their ability to serve in government roles, likely in a disguised purge of officials who do not adequately align with the Kremlin.
• Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) conducted a successful maritime drone strike against a Russian patrol boat in occupied Crimea on May 6, and Ukrainian forces are reportedly adapting their maritime drones to combat Russian defensive measures.
• Russia may be switching sides in the Sudanese civil war to support the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) in pursuit of a Red Sea naval base for Russia, which would align Iranian and Russian Sudanese policy and create opportunities for increased Iranian-Russian cooperation in Sudan and the broader Red Sea area.
• Russia has pursued a Red Sea port since 2008 to protect its economic interests in the area and improve its military posture by increasing its ability to challenge the West in the broader region, including in the Mediterranean Sea and Indian Ocean.
• Russia backing the SAF would greatly benefit Iran by aligning Iranian and Russian policy and strategy in the region, which would advance Iran’s own aims of securing a Red Sea base in Sudan.
• The Kremlin is additionally pursuing secondary objectives, including sidelining Ukrainian and US influence in Sudan, through its outreach to the SAF.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances northwest of Svatove, near Avdiivka, in western Zaporizhia Oblast, and in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast.
• Ukrainian Zaporizhia Oblast Head Ivan Fedorov stated that Russian authorities have created the infrastructure necessary to conscript Ukrainians in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast and plan to conscript more than 150,000 Ukrainians into the Russian army in an unspecified time period. . . .

Ukraine continues efforts to expand its domestic defense industry. Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal announced on April 30 that the Ukrainian government allocated an additional 15.5 billion hryvnias (about $400 million) to purchase drones, in addition to the 43.3 billion hryvnias (about $1.1 billion) that Ukraine already allocated to purchase drones in 2024.[107] Shmyhal noted that these funds will allow Ukraine to purchase an additional 300,000 drones in 2024. The Ukrainian Cabinet of Ministers published a decree on May 3 that will provide grants to cover up to 80 percent of the cost for Ukrainian enterprises that produce drones.[108] The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense’s (MoD) Defense Procurement Agency (DPA) Director Maryna Bezrukova stated on May 4 that 70 percent of Ukraine's defense procurement agreements will be made with domestic manufacturers in 2024.[109] Bezrukova reported that the Ukrainian DPA concluded more contracts in the first quarter of 2024 than in all of 2023.

Ukraine's Western allies continue to promise and provide additional military assistance to Ukraine. Canadian Defense Minister William Blair announced on April 26 that the first 10 of 50 armored combat support vehicles will arrive in Europe in summer 2024 and will go to Ukraine in fall 2024 after Ukrainian forces train on them.[110] The Estonian MoD announced on April 26 that Estonia delivered two NAVY 18 WP-class patrol boats to Ukraine.[111] Norway announced on April 30 that it allocated over 7 billion Norwegian kroner (about $645 million) to support Ukraine and noted that most funding will go toward Ukrainian air defense.[112] Latvian Prime Minister Evika Silina announced on April 30 that Latvia will transfer an unspecified number of MANTIS short-range air defense systems, tactical drone surveillance systems, and other materiel to improve Ukrainian air defense and reconnaissance capabilities.[113] German defense company Hensolt announced on May 3 that it will send an additional six TRML-4D radar systems to Ukraine to help build out Ukraine’s air defense umbrella.[114] German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall’s Head Armin Papperger stated that Rheinmetall will deliver “hundreds of thousands” of ammunition rounds to Ukraine in 2024, including prototypes of artillery shells that have a range of 100 kilometers.[115]

European Commissioner for the Internal Market Thierry Breton announced on May 6 at the EU–Ukraine Defense Industries Forum that the European Union (EU) has started preparations to open a Defense Innovation Office in Kyiv that will support European and Ukrainian defense industrial base (DIB) relations.[116] European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen previously announced in February 2024 that the EU planned to open a Defense Innovation Office in Ukraine.[117]

Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh stated on May 1 that the US “pre-positioned" some weapons and capabilities to ensure that the US could start sending aid to Ukraine as soon as US President Joe Biden signed a bill providing roughly $60 billion in military assistance to Ukraine.[118] Singh stated that the US almost immediately provided “air defense and artillery ammunition” to Ukraine. Singh’s statement is consistent with a May 3 New York Times (NYT) report that the first installment of US military assistance comprised of anti-armor rockets, missiles, and 155-mm artillery shells arrived in Ukraine on April 28 and that a second installment of unspecified aid arrived on April 29.[119] . . . .

 

Desperate bumblers from Moscow.

 

Just more talk, but he is saying the right things.

Euromaidan Press
Scholz backs using 90% of frozen Russian asset proceeds for Ukraine arms German Chancellor Olaf Scholz says he supports a European Union proposal to use the vast majority of revenues generated from Russian assets frozen in the...
44 minutes ago [May 7, 2024]
https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/05...ozen-russian-asset-proceeds-for-ukraine-arms/

 

Anyone who thinks that Ukraine can negotiate a deal with these Russian assassins needs to think again.

The Atlantic
Ukraine Has Changed Too Much to Compromise With Russia My generation has tasted freedom and experienced a competitive, vibrant political life. We can't be made a part of what Russia has become.
20 minutes ago [May 7, 2024]
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2024/05/ukraine-change-compromise-russia/678312/

 

And there it is. At the most profound level, Putin's war is already lost.

 

Assassination plots and reactionary rhetoric are Moscow's principal exports.

Ukraine Conflict Updates
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 7, 2024
Click here to read the full report.
Key Takeaways:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin began his fifth term as Russian President on May 7 and stressed Russia's need for unchallenged autocratic rule while indirectly calling for victory in Ukraine.
• Russian ultranationalists lauded the start of Putin's fifth term as a historic event and explicitly approved of the autocratic tradition in which Putin is casting himself, with one of them hailing him as "imperator," the formal title of the Russian tsars since the time of Peter the Great. Russian ultranationalists also expressed hope that Putin will continue to deepen an anti-Western ideology that the Kremlin has been heavily developing since the start of the full-scale invasion.
• The current Russian cabinet of ministers and Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin formally resigned on May 7 as constitutionally mandated, and the ministers who return to service and the ones whom Putin replaces will indicate who has Putin's favor and signal his political priorities for his fifth term
• Belarus has announced a surprise nuclear readiness inspection likely as part of the Kremlin's re-intensified reflexive control campaign targeting Western decision-making.
• Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) reported on May 7 that it exposed a network of Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) operatives who were planning to assassinate Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and other high-ranking Ukrainian intelligence and military officials
• The Russian Prosecutor General's Office declared US non-governmental organization (NGO) Freedom House an "undesirable organization" on May 7, likely as part of an ongoing effort to consolidate control over the domestic information space and further deprive Russians of access to civil society organizations and independent assessments of Russian civil and political rights.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Avdiivka, Donetsk City, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
• Russian occupation officials continue efforts to forcibly recruit Ukrainian civilians into the Russian military in occupied Kherson Oblast.
• The Kremlin is working with occupation administrators to strengthen Russia's control over the child welfare system in occupied Ukraine. . . .

 

Russia just can't cope.

Business Insider
'Cope cages' fail to protect Russia vehicles from Ukraine drones: videoFootage from a Ukrainian battalion appears to show drones breaching 'cope cages' placed on Russian armored vehicles to try to protect them.
.
25 minutes ago

https://www.businessinsider.com/video-appears-show-ukraine-drones-bypass-russia-cope-cage-2024-5

 

Russia/Putin is stuck between Ukraine and China.

“Renaud Foucart, a senior economics lecturer at Lancaster University, pointed to the dire economic situation facing Russia as the war in Ukraine wraps up its second year.”“As long as it remains isolated, Russia's "best hope" is to become "entirely dependent" on China, one of its few remaining strategic allies, Foucart said.

"A protracted stalemate might be the only solution for Russia to avoid total economic collapse," Foucart wrote. "The Russian regime has no incentive to end the war and deal with that kind of economic reality. So it cannot afford to win the war, nor can it afford to lose it. Its economy is now entirely geared towards continuing a long and ever deadlier conflict."
BUSINESS INSIDER, ECONOMY, Russia's economy is so driven by the war in Ukraine that it cannot afford to either win or lose, economist says, By Jennifer Sor, Feb 23, 2024, 12:23 PM EST. (emphasis mine)
https://www.businessinsider.com/rus...ary-spending-inflation-worker-shortage-2024-2

Putin is discovering his limits the hard way.

“You'll never find your limits until you've gone too far.” Aron Ralston, Between a Rock and a Hard Place

 

The Russians are running out of vehicles and equipment.

Ukraine Conflict Updates
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 8, 2024

Click here to read the full report
Key Takeaways:

• Russian forces conducted large-scale missile and drone strikes targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure on the night of May 7 to 8, continuing to exploit Ukraine's degraded air defense umbrella ahead of the arrival of US and Western security assistance at scale.
• Recent satellite imagery of depleted Russian military vehicle and weapons storage facilities further indicates that Russia is currently sustaining its war effort largely by pulling from storage rather than by manufacturing new vehicles and certain weapons at scale.
• Russia is relying on vast Soviet-era stores of vehicles and other equipment to sustain operations and losses in Ukraine at a level far higher than the current Russian DIB could support, nor will Russia be able to mobilize its DIB to replenish these stores for many years.
• The Georgian State Security Service (SUS) is employing standard Kremlin information operations against Georgians protesting Georgia's Russian-style "foreign agents" bill following the lead of Georgian Dream party founder and former Georgian Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili.
• Armenia's efforts to distance itself from Russia are increasingly forcing the Kremlin to acknowledge issues in the bilateral relationship.
• Lithuanian Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė stated that the Lithuanian government has granted permission for Lithuania to send troops to Ukraine for training missions in the future.
• Reports indicate that there is an available open-source tool that allows people to search by specific coordinates for Telegram users who have enabled a certain location-sharing setting.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Svatove, Kreminna, and Avdiivka and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area.
• Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu continues to highlight Russian formations involved in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. . . .

 

Russia is also running out of oil -- and money.

“Gazprom, the energy giant at the heart of Russia's economy, has announced it is selling property in Moscow, one week after posting record losses linked to restricted supplies to Europe linked to Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine.”

"Gazprom is engaged in a fire sale. They had their worst year in decades, and their production has fallen precipitously, down to what it was in the 1970s," said Tom O'Donnell, an energy and geopolitical analyst based in Berlin. "This is a result of a miscalculation by Putin," he told Newsweek.”
NEWSWEEK, Putin's Crown Jewel Forced Into Fire Sale Amid Record Losses, By Brendan Cole, Senior News Reporter, Published May 09, 2024 at 7:38 AM EDT (emphasis mine)
https://www.newsweek.com/russia-gazprom-selling-property-putin-1898699

 

I doubt there is any practical way for Russia to protect its oil hubs. They are all inherently vulnerable.

Kyiv Post
Ukrainian Drone Strikes Gazprom Refinery in Bashkiria, Sets Record Range of 1500 kmThe attack, carried out by a long-range drone, targeted the refinery's catalytic oil cracking unit.
6 hours ago
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/32388


The Moscow Times
In First, Drone Attacks Oil Refinery in Russia’s BashkortostanA drone has attacked an oil refinery in Russia's republic of Bashkortostan, regional authorities said Thursday, the first such reported case in the region...
8 hours ago
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024...-oil-refinery-in-russias-bashkortostan-a85078

 

....a pretty sad affair....not even the Armata managed to make it this year....one solitary T-34....that was all the armour they showws.

Lots of bandsmen though....

 

....you're all going to die...but you'll be remembered.....

 

The Pootster postures while the Ukrainians continue deep strikes.


Ukraine Conflict Updates
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 9, 2024

Click here to read the full report.
Key Takeaways:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin used his May 9 Victory Day speech to relitigate his belief that the West is attempting to erase the Soviet Union's contributions to defeating Nazi Germany during the Great Patriotic War (Second World War), a grievance that is at the core of Russia's adversarial perceptions of the West.
• Putin seized on a recent meeting with the commanders of several frontline Russian formations to portray himself as an informed and effective Supreme Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Armed Forces, aware of the intricacies of the frontline situation and involved in finding solutions to issues that plague Russian forces.
• Putin surrounded himself with a number of foreign officials at the Victory Day parade, likely in order to posture himself as an effective statesman capable of galvanizing an alternative coalition to the power structures of the collective West.
• Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) Spokesperson Maria Zakharova claimed that the Moldovan government is engaged in a Nazi-like "genocide" in Moldova — a notable inflection in Kremlin officials' rhetoric about Moldova that is likely meant set conditions for a Russian effort to secure control over Moldova and not just some of its regions.
• The leaders of the pro-Kremlin Moldovan Victory opposition electoral bloc attended the Victory Day parade in Moscow, further indicating that the Kremlin intends to use these actors to destabilize all of Moldova and attack Moldova's democracy and EU accession process.
• Russian forces have markedly increased the rate of ground attacks in eastern Ukraine over the past month, likely reflecting current battlefield conditions and the intent of the Russian military command to secure gains before the arrival of Western military aid to the frontlines.
• Russian border guards are withdrawing from much of Armenia as Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan continues to face domestic backlash for decisions regarding Nagorno-Karabakh.
• The Kremlin may seek to capitalize on opposition outrage in Armenia to punish Pashinyan for increasingly pulling away from Russia.
• Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) conducted long-range drone strikes against Russian oil depots and refinery infrastructure in Krasnodar Krai and the Republic of Bashkortostan on May 9.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Avdiivka and Donetsk City.
• Russian forces continue to struggle with discipline in their ranks, with some Russian soldiers reportedly killing other members of their units. . . .

 

.....

 

Armed citizens are always a serious threat to the structure of Fascist regimes.
Of course, Putin could fix the problem by disarming his troops.

 

It looks like Ukraine now has enough functional tubes and ammo or drones to stop the latest absurd Russian "mechanized" attacks.

THE ECONOMIC TIMES, Russia-Ukraine war: Artillery unit stem Russian attacks on the frontline without rest, watch!, AP | 10 May 2024, 10:24 PM IST .


Russia-Ukraine war: Artillery unit stem Russian attacks on ...


The Economic Times
https://m.economictimes.com › ... › World News
42 minutes ago — Fighting between Ukrainian and Russian forces continues as the battle over the frontline in Ukraine ... Business NewsNewsInternationalWorld NewsRussia-Ukraine war ...
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/defaultinterstitial.cms

 

No Starlink for the Russians.

Ukraine Conflict Updates
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 10, 2024

Click here to read the full report with maps
Key Takeaways:

• Russian forces began an offensive operation along the Russian-Ukrainian border in northern Kharkiv Oblast on the morning of May 10 and made tactically significant gains. Russian forces are likely conducting the initial phase of an offensive operation north of Kharkiv City that has limited operational objectives but is meant to achieve the strategic effect of drawing Ukrainian manpower and materiel from other critical sectors of the front in eastern Ukraine.
• Russian forces will likely leverage their tactical foothold in northern Kharkiv Oblast in the coming days to intensify offensive operations and pursue the initial phase of an offensive effort likely intended to push back Ukrainian forces from the border with Belgorod Oblast and advance to within tube artillery range of Kharkiv City.
• The limited efforts that Russian forces are currently conducting do not suggest that Russian forces are immediately pursuing a large-scale sweeping offensive operation to envelop, encircle, and seize Kharkiv City, however.
• Russian offensive operations along the Kharkiv international border likely have the strategic objective of drawing and fixing Ukrainian forces to this axis to enable Russian advances in other areas of eastern Ukraine.
• ISW continues to assess that Russian forces will likely struggle to seize Kharkiv City should they aim to do so.
• Russian forces likely decided to launch offensive operations along the international border area to take the best advantage of the relatively brief time left before Western aid arrives at the Ukrainian frontline at scale.
• Ukrainian Ground Forces Commander Lieutenant General Oleksandr Pavlyuk stated that the war in Ukraine will enter a critical phase in the next two months and commented on recent Russian advances around Chasiv Yar and Avdiivka.
• US President Joe Biden approved up to $400 million worth of military assistance for Ukraine as part of the Presidential Drawdown Authority Fund on May 10.
• Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike on the night of May 9 to 10 against an oil refinery in Kaluga Oblast that Ukrainian forces previously struck in March 2024.
• Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin is retaining his position in the Russian government for Russian President Vladimir Putin's new term of office, and there have been speculations but no confirmations of changes to Putin's cabinet.
• US Assistant Secretary of Defense for Space Policy John Plumb stated that US defense officials partnered with SpaceX to stop the Russian military's unauthorized use of Starlink internet terminals in frontline areas of Ukraine.
• Russian forces recently marginally advanced near Donetsk City and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area.
• Russian and Belarusian authorities continue to illegally deport Ukrainian citizens, including children, to Russia and Belarus. . . .

 

Congress finally stepped up.

“The big U.S. aid package for Ukraine and other allies that President Joe Biden signed Wednesday also allows the administration to seize Russian state assets located in the U.S. and use them for the benefit of Kyiv.

"That could mean another $5 billion in assistance for Ukraine, coming from Russian Central Bank holdings that have already been frozen in the United States. The seizures would be carried out under provisions of the REPO Act, short for the Rebuilding Economic Prosperity and Opportunity for Ukrainians Act, that were incorporated into the aid bill."
GLOBAL NEWS, U.S. NEWS, U.S. can now seize Russian assets and use them for Ukraine. What to know, By Fatima Hussein The Associated Press, Posted May 10, 2024 3:50 pm.

U.S. can now seize Russian assets and use them for ...
Global News
https://globalnews.ca › repo-act-ukraine-russia-assets
18 hours ago
https://globalnews.ca/news/10488654/repo-act-ukraine-russia-assets/