Thomas Gomart: Russia to Remain at Top of Political Agenda Dr. Thomas Gomart, Vice President for Strategic Development, and Director of the Russia/NIS Center at IFRI (French Institute of International Relations) speaks about Russias friends, challenges and changes the country may face after presidential elections. - Which country can Russia consider as a partner and a friend, if such country exists? Its an uneasy question to be honest, given the fact that the main driver of Russian foreign policy is to maintain its strategic solitude. I think that Russian diplomacy is very active in different parts of the world and try to set up some good relations with many countries. However, its difficult to speak about friendship due to the absence of real integration process with other countries. Within the so-called post-soviet space relations between Russia and Kazakhstan are very deep and substantive. The political ambition is to set up a customs union between Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus but at the same time there are sometimes some difficult relations with Minsk With Europe certainly there are many more strategic partners, mainly Germany, France and Italy. Relations with Poland have improved. If we go East, there is a wish to deepen the relations with both China and Japan, not to mention Korea, but at the same time with a lot of tricky bilateral issues. - What kind of issues? With Japan there is a basic problem from the Japanese point of view with the Kuril Islands, with China it is certainly a big difference of potential right now between these two countries, belonging to the BRIC grouping. It makes no sense now to compare Russian economy with Chinas. With us its not really a friendly cooperation, even though there were some improvements since the reset, but there is still a lot of competition between both countries. If we go South, there are good relations between Russia and some Arab countries, especially Syria. Added to this, the relations with Israel have been quite substantive in many fields. I think, maybe, the concluding point on this question is to say that Russia succeeded in having bilateral relations with many countries, which are from my point of view mainly ad hoc relations. - Who would Russia prefer to see as a partner and who does it look up to? I think for Russia what is important now, is to find a better balance between its relations with EU countries and Eastern countries. Its real foreign policy challenge is to find a proper balance between Europe, the U.S. and Asia, mainly China and Japan. - What does Russia have to do to achieve this? It is important to appear as a country which is indispensable for Europe and also as a country which is an emerging country, which has some big possibilities to develop itself. The point is to say: ok, we are to some extent European oriented, but also the Russian future depends on the development of Siberia and on the possibility to develop links with, as I said, China, Japan and Korea. - What should be done by Russia (in a political sense) to deepen the relations with Europe and the U.S.? First of all, the largest part of Russian trade is oriented towards the EU market and its something important to keep in mind by comparison with Russian trade towards the U.S. So, clearly, to some extent the Russian economy is more global but I would say that the gate of entry to the global economy is mainly through Europe for Russia. Even if we can see some evolution, its something very robust. It seems to me that the key issue now for relations between Russia, Europe and the U.S. is certainly the ongoing negotiation on missile defense because its the ultimate way to see that Russia, the U.S. and Europe share their threat perceptions. - Who would be willing to be Russi as partner if Putin is to be the next president? Of course its an important issue regarding the evolution of the Russian regime, but at the same time I dont expect dramatic changes if Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin is reelected. The basic idea, especially in European capitals, is to say that we cannot avoid Russia, and Russia should be a partner even if sometimes its a difficult one. So, my point is that it obviously depends also on the elections, which will be observed very carefully. But whoever is the next Russian president, maybe less in the U.S., but in Europe, it is clear that Russia will remain at the top of the political agenda. Dr. Thomas Gomart, Vice President for Strategic Development, and Director of the Russia/Nis Center at Ifri (@ThomasGomart) http://en.rian.ru/analysis/20120303/171693794.html
I think this subject needs dealing with first because if there is a blood bath in the next few weeks --- I rate it distinctly possible -- the whole outlook will change hugely . So read this first( below) -- part of a report from the Jamestown Foundation -- one of dozens that I process all the time . With regard to your Post , I don't think Putin understands Foreign Policy other than being aggressive . He has no strategy , listens to nobody and behaves as though everybody is a potential enemy . I am sure China will be his number one trade target -- easy decision for even a twelve year old . I think there are good reasons why he will continue to want Germany as an EU trading friend and I still have this feeling that he and his team "turned" several key members of the present German Govt. when he was in Dresden in the 80s , including Angela . Oh Yes . I think there are real huge Mafia links between Russia and Italy and Berlusconi's loss of position will not greatly hamper the close relationship between him and Putin . The same applies in Financial circles and for years I have been convinced that Deutsche bank is as much Russian as German . We will see REPORT EXTRACT The decision to put a forceful end to the street disorder is looming over the Kremlin, and it would be so bad that a significant part of the ruling elite might desert following the example of former finance minister Aleksei Kudrin (Moskovskie Novosti, March 1). Medvedev, who formally remains in charge for the next three months, is clearly reluctant to take responsibility for any repression. This provides an opportunity for the opposition to get its act together, adopting a strategy of peaceful regime change as outlined by Mikhail Khodorkovsky, who monitors the situation from his prison camp (Gazeta.ru, March 2). There is no future for Putin in this plan for a constructive dismantlement of his corrupt regime, and many of his courtiers have high-value reasons to move resolutely against any reforms so that no opening is given to the enemy (New Times, February 27). This aggressive counter-offensive fits Putins own instincts, shaped by a fear of showing weakness, so he is prompted and tempted to commit the gravest of mistakes of ordering a crackdown on a carnival (Nezavisimaya Gazeta, March 2). Putins war-like campaign has escalated tensions to a breaking point, and many of his fans are ready to take literally his appeals to crush the traitors, while others could be ready to force his hand by staging a provocation. An ideal instrument for triggering a blood-bath is a band of Kadyrovtsy that could be easily smuggled to Moscow in order to provoke an OMON unit each of them has a long history of deployment to the North Caucasus to use the most brutal technique of crowd control. One violent clash would not re-establish the fear factor as a deterrent of street protests but could make Putin desperate to re-assert control over the self-propelling crisis. He does not understand where the opposition has come from and what it is about; his inability to evaluate his own mistakes invites new blunders; and he is poised to turn the bad start of his new presidency into a fast failure.
You are as usually complicate all things. Long time known fact , that China is an economic and strategic partner of Russia. Trade between my country and China is based on national currencies (read Rouble and Yuan). Germany will not be forced economic partner of Russia, Germany remains the economic partner of Russia, Like others countries of the European Union. In addition, Germany is the main sponsor of the project "Nord Stream." Given that the EU want to close all Nuclear power plants, then soon we will import and electricity too.
In the most western medias you can read about Russia on the 7th - 10th pages, to 80 % in the criminal section.Putin's Russia is an highly corrupted poor lawless bantustan without industry and prosperity. After twelfth new years of Putin you will read Russia twenty times lesser, not ofter as about Zimbabwe or New Korea, somewhere in the End of Newspapers or in the Midnight broadcasting.
HaHaHa, a Strong Rich Giant like China has a Weak Poor Dwarf like Russia as "partner". Thanks for your very funny joke.
You're welcome. China and Russia are trading on basing national currencies, the ruble and the yuan. China has all demands of the U.S. for strengthen yuan , somewhere far ,far away . In the United States are imported from China more than China imported from the U.S.In China, highly developed art of copying. You just invest into China more new technologies.Today you are the main consumer, tomorrow we will be the main consumer.
Thanks also , Evil , for agreeing exactly with what I said . Amazing that the EU allowed the Nord Stream , which benefits Germany , almost exclusively . There are no simple things in politics , Evil . Just people who cannot handle complex , probabilistic scenarios and desperately try and make everything simple and Black or White . Are you one of those ?
There is also the "South Stream" that buried the project "Nabucco" Ray, your Theory of Probabilities has a tendency to split on three gradation.
LOL, Putin sells raw commodities like wood, oil, gaz, metalls etc., China machines, electronic, clothing etc. Practically Russia is a a colony of China. BTW according to the last "The Economist" today's Russia is not interesting even for Chinese gust-workers: in China they can make more money as in Russia. Twelfth years of Putin made a true colony from Russia.
Putin isn't an ideologue.. He's all about commerce.. Note that while Bush was blowing up Iraq Putin was completing a pipeline to Europe and signing up the gas producing countries.
Well . You invest new technology , we invest raw materials. USA sitting on the Chinese economic needle as well as Russia do. By the way in Russia is very much Chinese gust-workers, especially in the Far East . Yes of course the U.S. for China is much closer than Russia. And China never blocked the U.S. decision in security UN council .LOL
USA has industry, Russia almost not because Putin needs only Oil and Gaz. The US can still reinstall the outsourced to China working places, Russia not because Putin's "economy" has already destroyed everything. That's difference.
That's difference . You are right. In the U.S. there are still factories that Americans can take out to China. The Outsource a really good way against unemployment in China. BTW it's very clearly seen that the smaller number of unemployed in China, point to the greater number of unemployed in the United States. In Russia there is industry and construction of new plants. Of course, I read your thread http://www.politicalforum.com/russi...estroyed-putins-regime-big-manufacturers.html, but there are some interesting points
"Thanks" to Putin's lost twelfth years you can compare Russia only to African countries, in comparison to EU or the US Russia has NOTHING!
However, Russia has the industry. It clearly shows list of planned for 2012 "Industrial Goods Trade Shows in Russia" the entire list - http://www.biztradeshows.com/russia/russia-tradeshows.mp?industry=industrial-products
Can you show please only one seriously Russian Article which is being sold somewhere in the Western World.Understandably except Gaz, Oil, Commodities, whores, balalaikas, vodka and food for Russian emigrants.
Novolipetsk Sees First-Quarter Crude Steel Output Advancing 15% "Jan. 30 (Bloomberg) -- OAO Novolipetsk Steel, Russias largest steelmaker by market value, sees production rising 15 percent to 3.6 million metric tons this quarter after starting new facilities. Crude steel production climbed 9.6 percent to 3.2 million tons in the fourth quarter from the previous three-month period, the Russian company, known as NLMK, said today in a statement. Full-year output rose 3.6 percent to 12 million tons. Sales of finished products rose 7 percent in the fourth quarter to 3.6 million tons, while full-year sales advanced 9.6 percent to 12.9 million tons, the company said." January 30, 2012 http://www.businessweek.com/news/20...quarter-crude-steel-output-advancing-15-.html
Do you not know that crude steel is a commodity? Sure no one rich country wish for itself a stinking dirty plant, there is Russia for this. Where are machines etc?
Wow, why did you decide that the steel-rolling production is low-tech production. If we tomorow we would talk about the space, you may be ask me why the Russian can not fly to star Alpha Centauri,because it's just missiles ,and nothing complicated in missiles no
LOL, producing of steel-rolling production is fate of poor countries who poison their citizens with dirty air.Forget Alpha Cantauri, you can not produce even easy air planes which fall every second weak down.
Why not Look at China ahead of the number of launch space rockets then USA , look at this picture http://www.microsofttranslator.com/...://voprosik.net/statistika-po-kosmosu-v-mire/ Given all the failures of Russia in 2011 . Russia on first place, second place for China, and USA on third place in the field of launch space rockets
