The dangers of isolationism. What would happen if the U.S. is no longer the world #1 power.

Imagine, for example, that Ukraine falls to Russia. And it is not out of the question that this will happen. Trump and MAGAs are already trying to normalize Russia's fascist regime. So that, even if Trump loses the elections, the isolationist idea becomes engrained in the minds of many. And this is what Putin wants.

Ukraine falling would be seen by the rest of the world as a failure on our part. There is a high likelihood that countries who looked up to us for protection of their democracy will start looking in other directions.

Isolationist have not considered the fact that the fact that we are the number one political super-power has advantages. Here are three I would like to point out. Even though there are likely others.

International Sanctions: We are the ONLY country in the world that can violate international law without fear of sanctions. Nobody would dare sanction us. Especially because a downfall in our economy would have repercussions all over the world. And we HAVE infringed human rights many times (for example: Trump's separation policy). The fact is that sanctions hurt the people.

Military power: NATO is the most powerful military alliance in the world. But NATO depends on US. Forget "dues" (nonsense made up by Trump). We need NATO even more that NATO needs us. It's not about how much they spend on their military. It's about the fact that we can have military BASES in all those countries. This ensures rapid response to military attacks ANYWHERE. And our presence ensures that none of these countries go off on their own to build a military that would compete with ours.

Financial power: There is no doubt that we use our political power to influence other nations and give an advantage to our industries all over the world. This is the reason why the three strongest stock markets in the world operate here. Not in China, not in Europe... in the U.S. If we no longer have that influence, there is no reason for companies not to seek cheaper labor and better conditions in other nations. While we are the world's power, businesses that want our protection, operate in our market.

I don't think people calling for more isolationism understand what a huge deep change that would mean. In the end, what an attempt at isolationism would accomplish would NOT be to make us more independent of other nations, but to make us more dependent.

 

Of course we understand the changes

No need for foreign bases, shorter supply lines, no wasting money on foreign wars.

 

How does that work?

 

I think the OP subject line shows the massive divide between lefties like him and the neo-cons, and people like me. I've found this again and again on this forum, but simply, we are no longer a hyperpower, and although you could argue that we are still a great power, the decline of the US from say, 1992 to now shows that we simply can't act like a super power anymore because we simply are not one. In 1992 we just came off a massively successful war, aided by a coalition of put together by the US. Are industrial capacity was top notch, and could supply most domestic needs. Now? We're spending more on interest payments than for defense, we've had a massive military defeat in Afghanistan, and the government seems unable to perform even the most simple governmental functions.

We're in decline which makes issues like "isolationism" totally irrelevent.

 

How does what work? We just shut down the foreign bases.

 

The world began to doubt us as the supreme world power after Vietnam, and that doubt was revived when Putin made Obama look like a fool over that "Red Line" in Syria. Then Biden made it certain that everyone would doubt the U.S. with his totally ****ed-up withdrawal from Afghanistan. After that, Putin decided the time was right to make his move on Ukraine and that 's also when China decided to go forward with their plans to take over Taiwan.

 

No imagination required. Ukraine WILL fall to Russia.
Obviously you're not up on current events
Ukraine doesn't have enough bodies to throw at this invasion and no amount of money changes that fact.
Russia has another 800K soldiers in reserve. Its just a matter of attrition.

Hyperbole and your own propaganda

Another hyperbole claim. The only option available to all NATO members to look in another direction would be 80-90% decline in military power.
Laughable really

Yet you claim they would simply look in another direction of the US if Ukraine fails?
Too funny

Yet you claim they would simply look in another direction of the US if Ukraine fails?
Your post are in direct conflict with each other

Just to get you up to speed, having our bases and soldiers all over the world is a benefit NATO enjoys, not the US.

WAIT?????? WHAT????????? OMG
Do tell us all (AND I CAN"T WAIT TO HEAR THIS)
What NATO member has a 900 billion budget to develop a military that would compete with ours?????????????????
THe US military budget is larger than all NATO members COMBINED
Heres the top 10
Do point out which county could possibly go off on their own to build a military that would compete with ours.

Country
Defense Spending 2023
United States $860,000
Germany $68,080
United Kingdom $65,763
France $56,649
Italy $31,585
Poland $29,105
Canada $28,950
Spain $19,179
Netherlands $16,741
Turkey $15,842

This is an example of taking you a long time to research the validity of your arguments?
Really speaks for itself, doesn't it. lol

 

In the GHW Bush and Clinton administrations, there was the opportunity to choose to become the "first among equals", where the equals would have been the EU and China, with an assortment of less equals including the UK, Russia, Japan, India, Brazil and probably some Southeast Asian group.

I think that the reason that choice was rejected in favor of sole superpower status was Israel. Without being the sole superpower we could not guarantee the security of Israel, which is too small, too weak, and too disliked to defend itself. Consider the affiliations of the neo-cons and the makeup of the Project for a New American Century.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_for_the_New_American_Century

 

We are a hyperpower in the sense that we STILL enjoy the privileges that I outlined. If we start playing the "isolationist" game, we lose those privileges. And we have enjoyed them since the end of WWII. So nobody in this forum has any idea what it means to live without them.

And since, whether we like it or not, we DO live in a Globalized World, the rest of the world is not going to sit idly by and not take advantage of our idiocies.

 

Yes! If they can't rely on us, countries will look for other alternatives to rely on.

It is to our advantage that they rely on US. Because that is what gives us our muscle.

And a huge chunk of that is to keep our military operations in foreign countries. Especially NATO countries. The other countries don't spend that much because they don't HAVE bases in countries other than their own.

If NATO falls, or if we lose our leadership, you can be sure that number will come down drastically. And the reason is we won't have anything to spend it ON.

 

They can doubt us all they want, so long as we don't give them the excuse they need to remove our privileges.

 

Confirming that you still think we are a hyperpower...check!

However your other point is also a false one. No one has argued for "isolationism." The fear that keeps you up at night, Trump, wasn't an isolationist, and in the unlikely event he is President again, he still won't be an isolationist.

 

Our muscle comes from our defense budget. NATO needs the US. The US doesn't need NATO.

So you are unaware of the 2% GDP requirement of NATO members and what those numbers are.
Please provide a list of NATO countries GDP that could support 900 billion a year in Military spending.
I'll start you off
US 25 trillion
UK 3.1 trillion
France 2.9 trillion
Germany 4.2 trillion

 

Make sure you do exactly as OP says and “forget about dues”
Didn’t you folks know the most powerful military alliance apparently doesn’t require money to function

no! I will not forget about “dues”

 

It works well. We can stop trying to be the planetary police department.

 

No more burying our family members in Arlington so others won't have to bury theirs. I've had my fill.

 

We reassume our pre-World War I status as a regional power within the multipolar power dynamics of the post-Cold War Era. Meanwhile, our allies around the world step up and assume their proper roles and responsibilities in the new geostrategic order.

Welcome to the 21st Century.

 

Wrong! If you don't watch news, at least you might want to read some of the threads in this forum.

 

Well you can make the case that we're heading towards isolationism, but I think it will be hard one to make.

 

Obviously you didn't understand my point. Which includes that that makes very LITTLE difference to us. It might make a difference to other members, BTW. But not to us. The benefit we want from NATO is something very different. You can read my post again if you want. I have no interest in explaining it again to you.

 

There are no regional powers in a globalized world.

Yes. Welcome to the 21st Century, were regions are MEANINGLESS and a global economy is reality.

 

Amazing, the flip-flop that Leftists have made in just SEVEN years and all it took was Trump becoming president.

For decades, all we heard from the Leftists was "no more foreign intanglements". "Reduce defense spending. We aren't the World's police". "Put a stop to American imperialism".

Let Trump get in the White House and actually implement those things? Oh yeah, baby! The Leftists flip-flop quick AF...lol

 

(1) But in the 2000's we engaged "regime change" wars - wars of choice, not of necessity. Specifically, Iraq, Libya, and Syria. The only war we engaged in self defense was the war against Al Qaeda which necessitated an invasion and occupation of Afghanistan. These wars of choice resulted in terrible unforeseen consequences, and we are still reaping those consequences. (We just lost more young service members in Jordan who were there supporting operations in Iraq in Syria.)

In the future, let's not commit our country to "regime change" wars of choice.

(2) Europe has a greater combined GDP than the U.S., and they have more than twice the population. Europe also has an educated populace, and they are technologically advanced. There is, therefore, no reason why Europe cannot create a combined military that is entirely capable of defending itself. It has all of the resources it needs to put together a fearsome defensive force and even an expeditionary force similar to the U.S. capability.

I am not opposed to the U.S. having bases in Europe. I am not opposed to being a part of NATO. What I am opposed to is Europe's reliance on the U.S. to immediately rescue them in a time of trouble. I don't want the U.S. to be the first option. What I want is for the U.S. to be the last resort if they can't deal with it themself. And after watching the Russians in Ukraine, I have no doubt whatsoever that the Europeans themselves could utterly crush a land invasion by the Russians.

(3) We need a balanced federal budget. We need to stop running huge deficits. We need to get our financial house in order.

(4) The young Americans serving in our military are far better Americans and far better people than the politicians who so willingly sacrifice their lives in wars. And so it's fine to possess a big stick, but let's walk softly, and let's only send our best Americans off to war if it is absolutely necessary and only when the whole country is behind them and their mission. As soon as the corrupt politicians start turning a war into a political football, we should withdraw them all. Those brave young Americans don't deserve to be betrayed like that by a rabble of cowardly, self-serving politicians.

Now ... Is that being an isolationist?

 

Absolutely! Ukraine is not a war of choice, though.

It can, and that should scare us. The minute Europe doesn't need us, our influence in the world is gone. That is the point where the privileges we have enjoyed since the end of WWII start disappearing. Please review some of those privileges (it's just a partial list) in the OP, and tell me which ones you think are good for you.

Again, that is the price we pay for the privileges outlined in the OP.

Our deficit become unmanageable when they are created by policies that don't PRODUCE anything for the country. Trump's tax breaks for the rich (and tax breaks for the rich in other administrations) have increased the deficit and we get nothing in return.

The war in Ukraine is fought by Ukrainians. If Ukraine falls, Russia might be emboldened enough to invade a NATO country. And THAT is when we start losing those young Americans.

I don't know. You listed a series of points (valid points) but didn't propose any actions.

 

All empires come to an end…