The predicted bloodshed is coming

Discussion in 'Coronavirus Pandemic Discussions' started by Arkanis, Mar 27, 2020.

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  1. Arkanis

    Arkanis Well-Known Member

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    4,000 Americans died.

    So if the mortality rate is 0.66%, there are currently 600,000 cases in the country. 188,000 known and 412,000 unknown.

    If the number of cases doubles every 4 days and does not slow down, we will have 75 million people sick by the end of the month.

    That would be 500,000 deaths.

    Right ?
     
  2. Arkanis

    Arkanis Well-Known Member

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    Just 48 hours ago, Fauci said the virus would likely kill 82,000 Americans.

    Yesterday he was talking about 100,000 to 200,000 dead.

    Today, the virus could kill as many as 240,000 Americans.

    Fauci went to great lengths to convince Trump not to lift the containment measures for Easter.

    The president acknowledged he “thought about” the possibility of "rid[ing] it like a cowboy” and not taking further mitigation steps but that he was informed that up to 2.2 million could die if no steps were taken to slow the virus’ spread, according to projections.
     
    Last edited: Mar 31, 2020
  3. gfm7175

    gfm7175 Well-Known Member

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    There are many more than "1 or 2 companies" making such switches. Even with all the companies that have done so, it will take a while for supply to catch up with demand.
     
  4. gfm7175

    gfm7175 Well-Known Member

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    Yup.

    Who knows what that rate is. Who knows how many cases there are. This is just you generating randU numbers.

    Right, but an absolutely meaningless number, as you're just making use of randU numbers. Same with the models being touted by Fauci and crew which are expecting 100K-200K deaths. At least Fauci rightfully admitted that models are only as good as their inputs and that he thinks the actual numbers can be kept below the numbers spat out by the models.

    Remember, even actual numbers will have a sizable range, depending on how one wishes to classify each death. Example, if someone who is dealing with heart issues gets corona and dies, will that death be attributed to corona or to the heart issues?
     
  5. Arkanis

    Arkanis Well-Known Member

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    Just a week ago, you called people who claimed there would be 100,000 deaths crazy.

    It's just ironic that you're justifying yourself today.

    Prepare your arguments for what's coming, you're going to have a hard time making any sense.
     
  6. gfm7175

    gfm7175 Well-Known Member

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    ... and I still believe that to be a rather high estimate. I still don't think that the Wuhu flu will end up any worse than annual numbers for the common flu.

    I'm not saying anything different than I've been saying all along... If I end up being wrong and it ends up being worse than I think it will end up being, then I'll adjust my tune and admit that I was wrong. I'm no prophet nor am I claiming to be one. But I see no reason to fear monger over a (currently) 0.007%-0.008% infection rate and a 0.00015%-0.0003% death rate.

    Fear mongering.
     
    Last edited: Apr 1, 2020
  7. Arkanis

    Arkanis Well-Known Member

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    Don't take this the wrong way, but I'm going to rely on the experts' predictions
     
  8. gfm7175

    gfm7175 Well-Known Member

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    No, you are fear mongering. The "experts" you speak of even said themselves that they think actual numbers will come in quite a bit lower than what the models are spitting out.
     
  9. Arkanis

    Arkanis Well-Known Member

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  10. gfm7175

    gfm7175 Well-Known Member

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    That's not what Fauci and his crew said in the presser yesterday. That is ABC's fear mongering spin on what was said.

    If you listen to the presser itself, Fauci reiterated multiple times during the presser (and was very clear about it each time) that a model is only as good as the numbers put into it, that those models are heavily based on NY and NJ data, that they don't expect everywhere else to be as bad as NY and NJ, that they'd keep adjusting the models as more data comes in each day, and that those numbers will likely be even lower with proper mitigation efforts. He said to "be prepared" for 100K-240K, but he didn't say to expect those numbers in actuality.

    This is the difference between you and I. I go directly to Fauci for what Fauci said. I make the effort to listen to the presser itself instead of how the MSM twists and edits what was said. I then form my own conclusions and arguments from the information that was presented to me.

    You, on the other hand, just to go the "trusted" "main stream media" (and their twisted edited version of events) and just parrot their fear mongering nonsense, without forming any conclusions or arguments of your own.

    In short, I am a free thinker and you are not. You present people with "holy links" and I do not.
     
    Last edited: Apr 1, 2020
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  11. Professor Peabody

    Professor Peabody Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    More tests are readily available.
     
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  12. Professor Peabody

    Professor Peabody Well-Known Member Past Donor

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  13. gfm7175

    gfm7175 Well-Known Member

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    ... and they will produce results much faster too.

    Also noteworthy is that many people seem to either confuse or falsely equate "confirmed cases" with "all cases".
     
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  14. gfm7175

    gfm7175 Well-Known Member

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    Precisely!

    We don't know what is going to happen, and models that churn out such high numbers (like you pointed out with swine flu, and what is being done with Wuhu Flu now) try to "estimate high" to predict what the worst case scenario might be. As you saw with swine flu, we ended up nowhere near 90K deaths. It might very well be the same case with Wuhu flu as well.
     
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  15. Professor Peabody

    Professor Peabody Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    As testing increases they will find more existing cases and call them "new". The news media have become psychological terrorists.
     
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  16. Professor Peabody

    Professor Peabody Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Hey, they were only 73,000 off. That's some margin of error.
     
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  17. gfm7175

    gfm7175 Well-Known Member

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    That's what you get when you try to "predict" how a random event will play out or "predict" something by using randU numbers. Models are only as good as their inputs. That's why you see weather predictions turn out to be wrong time and time again.
     
  18. dairyair

    dairyair Well-Known Member

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    Not enough. MY POINT.

    It took the prez to declare DPA to get enough supplies being mfg'd to be meaningful.
     
  19. Dutch

    Dutch Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I’m a fan of Sig Sauer myself. My anodized 938 Nightmare looks great, makes a loud pop and fits into my back pocket so I don’t even feel it’s there.

    upload_2020-4-1_16-55-56.jpeg

    Your twelve year old daughter shot Desert Eagle? :hiding:
     
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  20. Doofenshmirtz

    Doofenshmirtz Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Nice! Yes, she likes the Deagle and I hate to admit it, but she's a better shot than I am!
     
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  21. Rugglestx

    Rugglestx Well-Known Member

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    Sig makes a great gun! :)
     
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  22. gamewell45

    gamewell45 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Bet you feel really safe now; you never know someone might try to break into your garage and steal your extra refrigerator containing venison and beer. :)
     
  23. Dutch

    Dutch Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Is the American way, my friend.

    The Soviet way, as you probably know too well, is not like ours. No need to break into someone’s garage, for they have as much as you have - not’n :D
     
  24. gamewell45

    gamewell45 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Perfect; no guns needed since there is nothing to steal. I like that.
     
  25. Arkanis

    Arkanis Well-Known Member

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    The virus killed 886 people today.

    Will 1,000 Americans die in a single day tomorrow?
     

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