The predicted bloodshed is coming

Discussion in 'Coronavirus Pandemic Discussions' started by Arkanis, Mar 27, 2020.

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  1. Curious Always

    Curious Always Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    The IHME modeled 899 today with a range of 806 - 970.
    Tomorrow's projection is 1,036 with a range of 905-1132.

    Peak death per day is predicted to be 4/16, 2,607 deaths.
     
  2. Arkanis

    Arkanis Well-Known Member

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    Jesus.
     
  3. Curious Always

    Curious Always Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I meant to include the link. It's at a country level, but you can filter on individual states. It predicts peak resource usage, shortage of beds, ICU beds & ventilators, and peak deaths. Scary stuff.

    https://covid19.healthdata.org/
     
  4. Dutch

    Dutch Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Sadly, probably more. As the President said, we’re in for a couple of terrible weeks. Stay safe, my friend!
     
  5. Bridget

    Bridget Well-Known Member

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    I can see this being pretty much over by the end of April. God willing, it will be short lived. And yet, so many people seem to gleefully predict it lasting all year or forever. So, I ask why are so many people so eager to believe it will go on and on? Sick, but maybe because some see an opportunity to blame it more on Trump the longer it lasts, hopefully in their minds at least through November. I also suspect some are secretly enjoying the drama of the moment. Some people I know are in line to make more money staying at home than they made when they were working, so that also might figure in. Personally, I don't understand the insistence on pessimism.
     
  6. Curious Always

    Curious Always Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    - I don't blame Trump, at all.
    - I want the naysayers to be right, more than you can possibly imagine. I want them to be free to scream, "told ya so!" from the rooftops as loudly and as long as their heart's desire.
    - This is going to get very bad
    - This is nothing like the seasonal flu
    - This will not be over in a month
     
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  7. crank

    crank Well-Known Member

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    I would be cautious about calling it pessimism. It's probably more about caution.

    Saying "I can see this being pretty much over by the end of April" is almost certainly just your wish thinking (we all have the same wish), but it's not based on the figures, or the science, or the patterns. It's just not going to be anywhere near that easy, or that fast. The problem is that when you have a bunch of people getting fed up with being stuck at home, or sick of not working, or running out of money ... or whatever, some are going to use their frustration to fuel a denial which permits them to go out. It's a self-indulgence the world can't afford. We ALL need to stay at home, ALL the time. Perhaps until the vaccine is produced.
     
    Last edited: Apr 1, 2020
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  8. Bridget

    Bridget Well-Known Member

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    I guess all we can do is wait and see where it goes. Still, I fail to see how trying to be optimistic hurts anything, or that saying how bad it will be helps in any way.
     
  9. Curious Always

    Curious Always Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Mardi Gras has Louisiana suffering horribly right now, and it will get worse.

    People are going to church, which spreads it like we are in crazy-town.

    Right now, people being afraid of this is good. Nothing has spread like this in anyone's lifetime (who is alive.) This is some crazy scary stuff.

    We know, without any doubt, that people hanging out in large crowds are getting infected at a high % rate. This is not a guess or gut feeling - this is data.
     
  10. crank

    crank Well-Known Member

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    Being in denial is not the same as being optimistic, at all. Optimism in this situation is things like realising you can grow vegetables in pots in your windows (if you live in an apartment), or that you can go for a jog at 3am and know you won't encounter crowds, or that you're able to work from home, or that your house is much cleaner than it usually is, or that the environment is probably going to be significantly healed by this massive worldwide arrest of spastic consumerism and travel. We need to find our optimism WITHIN this reality.
     
  11. Curious Always

    Curious Always Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I will point you to this very informative thread. The goal for all participating in this thread is to keep it to facts, and leave politics out of it. There is such good information here, for those that seek it. Rate of growth is slowing in a few hot spot countries. Numbers still rising at a crazy rate, but a bit less than yesterday.

    http://politicalforum.com/index.php...-in-the-world.569531/page-100#post-1071561626

    Optimism is wonderful. I have it, too, and intend to keep it. It's not easy, but I'm doing my best. We will get through it, but the more people that help us get there, the quicker we can be done. We still have people on this forum gleefully cheering about how they are hugging and kissing people at parties filled with "I hate government" crowds. They are NOT helping.
     
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  12. crank

    crank Well-Known Member

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    On that, in my country community growth has slowed in past week. It's a bit less each day, so the lockdown is clearly working.
     
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  13. Curious Always

    Curious Always Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    It is working. That is demonstrable. Mardi Gras is causing a hot mess. Every port city in the US is seeing major growth. I'm in South Florida - we've been self isolating for four weeks, now, at least in our house. (We actually think we had this thing, but there will be no way to know that for some time.)
     
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  14. Professor Peabody

    Professor Peabody Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    They won't be stealing from closed stores......they are coming to steal from YOU!
     
  15. gamewell45

    gamewell45 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    That's fine by me I have no problem helping my fellow man survive. How about you? Or do you only care about yourself?
     
  16. Curious Always

    Curious Always Well-Known Member Past Donor

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  17. LogNDog

    LogNDog Well-Known Member

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    I only have one refrigerator. I don't drink beer. I hate venison. I don't store food in my garage as we have bears. We have two freezers and they are both in the house. You attempt at assumption is a total fail. I do feel safe. All of the neighbors are close, armed and in touch with each other as the closest deputy might be 60 miles away at any given time. We even have a backhoe.
     
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  18. gamewell45

    gamewell45 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Feel better now that you got that off your chest? You don't drink beer? You don't like venison? Don't tell me you drink wine/perrier and eat caviar?.

    How come you don't keep your garage locked? Do you have a welcome sign over the main door?

    Glad to hear you and your neighbors are armed to the teeth; you never know when those pesky bears will attempt to gain access to your home. I'm surprised with the potential for crime your county hasn't had the wherewithal to have a deputy post in your neck of the woods with a 5 minute response time. To me it sounds like a serious issue; either way stay safe. :)
     
  19. LogNDog

    LogNDog Well-Known Member

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    Again you missed. Is your error rate always 10 for 10? When I drink I drink Irish whiskey. I like beef. I love smoked meat. I never said I don't lock my garage. I don't know where you got that idea. I live in the mountains. We have a low crime rate so that's another erroneous assumption on you part. Even the liberals up here have guns. We have bear, mountain lions and coyotes. It would be stupid not to.
     
  20. Curious Always

    Curious Always Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    We just went over the million mark for people infected.

    19 days ago it was 156,086. That is an absolutely insane growth rate and we're still climbing exponentially.
     
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  21. gamewell45

    gamewell45 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    If you lock your garage, how do the bears get in? If you have a low crime rate, then why the need for guns?
     
  22. LogNDog

    LogNDog Well-Known Member

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    Bears don't care if a door is locked. If they get a mind to they just tear it open. I have guns because of the wildlife and just in case some idiot flat lander tweaker millennial gets wild hair and thinks that my stuff should be his stuff. We aren't crime free. We just have a low crime rate. Part of the reason we have a low crime rate is because we don't tolerate crime.


    Bear goes through door like tinfoil

    [​IMG]
    https://durangoherald.com/articles/92330
     
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  23. Professor Peabody

    Professor Peabody Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    So if 3 armed men kicked in your door and took all your supplies, you're OK with that?
     
  24. gamewell45

    gamewell45 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Even if it were one man with a gun or knife, if you need it to the point where you have to use a gun or knife, by all means take it; there's more where they came from. Supplies can always be replaced.
     
  25. crank

    crank Well-Known Member

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    We've been in for three weeks, now. Our designated scout has been out once - to stock up on fresh produce and gardening stuff (all available at a local rural store, which opens at 6am and is always empty at that time - which is when we go :p ). Everything gets thoroughly washed out in the barn (which has a kitchen and bathroom), then left in an enclosed porch for 48 hours before coming inside. That is - all purchased items, AND clothes/shoes etc.
     
    Last edited: Apr 2, 2020

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