The predicted bloodshed is coming

Discussion in 'Coronavirus Pandemic Discussions' started by Arkanis, Mar 27, 2020.

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  1. James California

    James California Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    ~ Essentially the U.S. is "closed". We are not in an economic meltdown. We have stopped work for safety reasons. I close my business each day - I am not "out of business". I can even close for an extended period for vacation.
    There is objective perspective - and there is negative thinking. So far the U.S. is doing well - especially compared to Europe.
    The news media profit off sensationalized chaos and predictions of panic. They only make a difficult situations worse. Looking at the big picture is best. We will be fine here in America - negative thinking included.
     
  2. FlamingLib

    FlamingLib Well-Known Member

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    So, there's been enough testing by other countries (and us) to ascertain that there aren't a lot of asymptomatic people walking around out there. We also aren't getting a lot of positive diagnoses from the tests we run. Something like 20% come back positive. So, even people we think have this usually turn out not to have it. S. Korea has lead everyone in testing, per capita, and their numbers are probably the best: 9,400 cases, and 144 deaths. Around 1.5% mortality. If you assume S. Korea has undercounted by double, than you're still doing with something 7 times more lethal than the flu AND it's infectious as Hell. We also know that this has overwhelmed Italy's healthcare system and is the process of overwhelming ours. Something only as dangerous as the flu wouldn't be doing that.

    But the thinking is there aren't a lot of cases out there that will drop the mortality rate. That gives us time before the peak hits, because this doesn't spread all that fast, but when the peak comes, it's going to be godawful.
     
    Last edited: Mar 27, 2020
  3. FlamingLib

    FlamingLib Well-Known Member

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    You guys who have downplayed this have been wrong every time. Every time. There's not a day that goes by that this doesn't get WORSE than the doomsayers thought it would be.

    So of course you'll continue to get it wrong. The number of people who die from this is going to be enormous, and the economy is going to be decimated by this. This is going to be catastrophic. There's no other word to describe it. This is going to be the worst thing that's happened to America in most people's lifetimes. We have 100,000 cases now and 400 people died today. And we're weeks away from when this peaks. When we start losing 1,000+ a day, remember this post.
     
    Last edited: Mar 27, 2020
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  4. dairyair

    dairyair Well-Known Member

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    Once again. You did.
     
  5. dairyair

    dairyair Well-Known Member

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    Are you using Italy stats to determine this??
     
  6. LogNDog

    LogNDog Well-Known Member

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    They sit in the safe.
     
  7. LogNDog

    LogNDog Well-Known Member

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    I actually live in the mountains away from people. I spent 28 years in the Army. I know about fear. I retired when we got back form Iraq the last time. Fear can be good or bad. Fear for the sake of fear is stupid. To much fear leads to bad choices.
     
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  8. LogNDog

    LogNDog Well-Known Member

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    Did what? Be specific and don't be shy or weaselly. Just say what you think. Show us your backbone.
     
  9. Distraff

    Distraff Well-Known Member

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    Usually we are testing people with symptoms, so naturally most of them are going to have symptoms, but that doesn't mean not a lot of people have no symptoms. We know that this virus has a long incubation period and is increasing exponentially so logically a good portion of people infected won't have symptoms just due to the incubation period.

    South Korea has done a lot of testing but even so, a tiny fraction of 1% of their population was even tested. If 20% (or whatever number) of those tested are coming back positive, I wonder how many will come back positive if we theoretically tested the entire population. Many people who get sick don't even know they have covid and think they just have the common cold. Or they are afraid of coming forward. The amount of testing we have is limited, not everyone who wants to be tested can even be tested. And even from those tested, 80% are mild cases and so its not unimaginable that a lot of people are getting covid and not reporting it.

    Lets assume that 1.5% death rate turns into 2.5% once all the cases are resolved. But I really think that since we have only been testing a tiny tiny fraction of the population that we are severely over-estimating the number infected. So the real infection rate is certainly much lower than 1%.
     
    Last edited: Mar 28, 2020
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  10. Curious Always

    Curious Always Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    All the leading infectious disease experts, doctors, pharmacists, researchers & nurses say you are wrong, but.... you do you. I'm sure your doctoral is in an equivalently relevant field. Where can we see your expert analysis?
     
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  11. s002wjh

    s002wjh Well-Known Member

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    FLU start around sep 2019, our 1st case is late Jan, wait for few month. also flu patient only need ventilator about 7 days, COV19 patient need 11-21 days. if we dont shut down, the covid19 will make flu look like toddler. cov19 not only more contiguous about 2x but also more deadly about 10-30 time, require more hospitalization and equipment time 2-3x than flu.
     
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  12. reedak

    reedak Well-Known Member

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  13. LogNDog

    LogNDog Well-Known Member

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    Last edited: Mar 28, 2020
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  14. One Mind

    One Mind Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I wont argue against that. I lived in fear in 1968 during my tour of duty. But was not paralyzed by it. Being in fear is common and it makes soldiers more careful generally speaking And you want others serving along with you to have enough fear to be careful for others can get you killed too.

    The kind of fear that makes people stampede or lose control is dangerous to oneself and others. Thankfully I have not seen much of that. Except when it comes to to safety where we will give away rights secured by blood and important enough to detail in our constitution.
     
    Last edited: Mar 28, 2020
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  15. FlamingLib

    FlamingLib Well-Known Member

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    I stand corrected. I didn't even think of buying them as an investment, but of course people do.
     
  16. FlamingLib

    FlamingLib Well-Known Member

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    It really is six of one or half a dozen of the other. Suppose we have massively undercounted cases and the mortality drops ten fold and it's like the flu. But there's the rub: the flu infects 30 million Americans a year. If this is more infectious than we think, and we already think it's worse than the flu AND we have no vaccine AND nobody has any immunity, then pretty much we're all going to get it. Or at least 60% of us. So figure 200 million Americans getting the flu. Even at flu rate mortalities and hospitalization rates, 200 million people getting the flu would be awful. And that's on top of the normal flu season.

    The only way this turns out good for us if it's super infectious AND we're way off on the mortality/hospitilization rate. But we know we're not off that much on mortality and hospitilization rates. We already are seeing what it can do to a region's hospitals. The normal flu just doesn't do that.
     
  17. One Mind

    One Mind Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I remember that from zoology long ago . Also remember the pic or illustration from the text book of a particular virus reminded me of a transistor!

    Cant recall why it was said not to be alive though. It attacks a cell.and uses a living cell to replicate? Yet a virus has dna I think? Or no ?

    Might have to educate myself on it. Since its only been 50 odd years since college lol . And I would doze off from too much partying the night before. .

    If not alive how did a non living thing get created and then evolve? It didnt start from a self replicating molecule, right ?


    Regardless these non life forms are very weird!
     
  18. James California

    James California Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    ~ Welcome home . Glad you're back ...:handshake:
     
  19. Arkanis

    Arkanis Well-Known Member

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    Doesn't change anything.

    So far, the mortality rate for known cases is 1.54%.
     
  20. Arkanis

    Arkanis Well-Known Member

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  21. Creasy Tvedt

    Creasy Tvedt Well-Known Member

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  22. Arkanis

    Arkanis Well-Known Member

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    China took drastic measures very early on to flatten the growth curve.

    Here, nothing significant has been done.

    The price to be paid will be very high.
     
  23. HumbledPi

    HumbledPi Well-Known Member

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    Unless you are 'afraid' or at least have some anxiety about the spread of this virus, you will present a danger to yourself and to others. Only through diligence on the part of every person in this country will these numbers stop exploding.

    Both COVID-19 and flu can be mild, severe, or, in rare cases, fatal. Both can also lead to pneumonia. However, the overall profile of COVID-19 is more serious. Estimates vary, but its mortality rate seems to be between about 1% and 3%. The death rate estimates are thousands of times greater than what you've quoted.

    https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/coronavirus-myths-explored
     
    Last edited: Mar 28, 2020
  24. Creasy Tvedt

    Creasy Tvedt Well-Known Member

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    The whole world is in the same predicament. Stop pretending like America is somehow in some sort of unique peril, it's just silly.

    Put your America hate boner back in your pants.
     
  25. Rugglestx

    Rugglestx Well-Known Member

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    How many are infected? No one knows. We will never truly know but at some point will have a general number, but right now we have no ideal at all.

    That is why using the current death rate as a factor in predicting the overall death rate is garbage math. It’s simple two part math, number of deaths divided into number of infected. If either number is inaccurate then the outcome of that math is wrong.

    The US has 6 times the population of Italy. If we have the same deaths per population they have had that would be right at 55,000 in the US. To hit your prediction of 450,000 dead in the US we would have to have 8 times the deaths per person that Italy has had so far. That’s why your crappy predictions are wrong. Your using numbers which defy logic and pushing them as facts. It’s fear mongering plain and simple.
     
    Last edited: Mar 28, 2020
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