The Sun-Climate Effect is decisive. The Battle of The climate Hypotheses: The Green House Gas Forcer vs. The Winter Gatekeeper Round 1. Gabriel Oxenstierna The data and the science fully support the Winter Gatekeeper hypothesis in this respect.
This is a powerful closing argument. How we know the sun changes the climate. III: Theories Posted on June 11, 2024 by curryja By Javier Vinós Part I in this series on the Sun and climate described how we know that the Sun has been responsible for some of the major climate changes that have occurred over the past 11,000 years. In Part II, we considered a range of changes that the Sun is causing in the climate today, including changes in the planet’s rotation and in the polar vortex that are changing the frequency of cold winters. None of the evidence for the Sun’s effect on climate we reviewed is included in the IPCC reports. The role of the IPCC is to assess the risk of human-induced climate change, not to find the causes of climate change, which since its inception has been assumed to be due to our emissions. Continue reading →
This also explains why the south pole has not warmed in the last 200 years. The strong polar vortex prevents warm air transport to the south pole from the warmer regions. The temperature has not increased despite the atmospheric south pole CO2 concentration increasing from ~ 280 ppm to ~ 420 ppm.
The WGH may well replace AGW as the center of climate science. The Battle of Climate Hypotheses: The Green-House Gas Forcer Vs. The Winter Gatekeeper Round 3: The Two Arctic Paradoxes Gabriel Oxenstierna For the first time, the IPCC’s doctrine of CO2 as a ‘control knob’ in our climate faces a serious challenger in the form of a comprehensive hypothesis about what drives… In conclusion, there are good reasons to reject the IPCC’s hypothesis that the Arctic amplification is due to the increasing levels of greenhouse gases. On the other hand, there is nothing that falsifies the Winter Gate-keeper hypothesis regarding the Arctic’s role in the climate system. There is ample physical evidence, as well as a substantial body of scientific research on meridional heat transport, all supporting its hypothesis regarding the causes of Arctic warming.
Yes. It could be argued that this plus the fact that Antarctica has not warmed in ~ 200 years despite atmospheric CO2 increasing from ~ 280 to 420 ppm invalidates the enhanced CO2 effect hypothesis.
But as is their wont our enhanced CO2 effect enthusiast friends who claim to understand the scientific method are predictably silent.
The debate continues: AGW vs WGH. AMOC’s “Cold Blob” Has Gone Missing Gabriel Oxenstierna The Green-house Gas Forcer vs. The Winter Gatekeeper For the first time, the IPCC’s doctrine of CO2 as a ‘control knob’ in our climate faces a serious challenger in the form of a comprehensive hypothesis about what drives climate and its shifts. – This article is the fourth in a series evaluating this new hypothesis of natural climate variability, the so-called Winter Gate-keeper Hypothesis [WGH]. The basic concept of WGH is that natural variations in the polewards meridional transport of heat and moisture controls climate change.[1][2] . . . . Summing up According to the novel Winter Gate-keeper climate hypothesis, the main characteristic of the climate system is that it oscillates on different time scales. These oscillations control climate change via heat transport. The AMOC heat conveyor is a major part of the heat transport system that helps our climate to regulate itself. The AMOC varies in irregular cycles. The cold blob is also a cyclical phenomenon in itself. This applies both to surface water temperature and salinity (Figures 5 and 7). Advocates of climate tipping point events speculate that the climate functions as a quasi-linear system that reacts to radiative forcing coming from CO2 and other sources. The IPCC gives anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions the primary role in its speculations about AMOC developments, including suggested future tipping points.[3] The issue of natural variability is pertinent to all discussions on the AMOC, but remains unresolved. Appendix: Multidecadal climate variability and meridional transport Figure 9. Illustration of various multi-decadal oscillations and their connections with climate regimes and shifts. MT=Meridional transport. From figure 11.10 in [1].
Somehow missed this one. Catching up. The Green-House Gas Forcer vs. The Winter Gatekeeper Round 2: Climate Shifts – Are They for Real? Gabriel Oxenstierna Yes, it is clear from the data and the literature that climate regimes and climate shifts driven by transport of heat and moisture are for real. . . .