A triple play of good news (for those not invested in failure for political purposes) suggested that the the double dip recession predicted by many is unlikely, and sent the Dow back over 12,000 in early morning trading for the first time since the Republican Debt Ceiling Extortion Fiasco last July. First was the news of a breakthrough on an agreement in the EU on banks taking a haircut on Greek debt and the establishment of a bailout fund to shore up other European economies. http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/28/w...ccord-on-basics-of-plan-to-save-the-euro.html Second was news that 3rd Quarter GDP (measuring Jun-Sep) grew at a 2.5% real rate, continuing an improving tread from the 1.3% measured for the 2d quarter and 0.4% for the 1st. U.S. economy grows nearly twice as fast in 3rd quarter http://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...-3rd-quarter/2011/10/27/gIQANfoyLM_story.html Finally, initial unemployment claims remained at the 400k level, suggesting that the 40k drop in claims a month ago was not a fluke and that the labor market remains firm, and that unemployment is not likely to get worse as many predicted. The median forecast of economists in a Bloomberg News survey called for a drop to 401,000. The number of people collecting unemployment benefits fell in the prior week by 96,000 to 3.65 million, the fewest since September 2008. http://www.businessweek.com/news/20...u-s-decreased-2-000-last-week-to-402-000.html Our conservative friends and those invested in failure for political purposes who were recently predicting a double dip recession will point out that these numbers are not as strong as we'd like them to be. We can all agree on that. However, given the huge plunge in consumer confidence that accompanied the Republican Tea Party Debt Ceiling Extortion Fiasco, coupled with the fear that the Greek debt crisis would pull down the US economy that resulted in the US stock markets dropping 20% in July and August, these recent economic signs are indeed much better than many feared or predicted would be the case.
So the good news is: - a massive $1.4 trillion bailout (with ZERO guarantee that it will be the last) at taxpayers expense. - a rise in U.S. GDP, primarily because consumers tapped their savings to buy stuff (which is TOTALLY unsustainable); while consumers incomes, home values and confidence fall. - and America is still not producing enough new jobs every month to keep pace with normal population growth. This is good news? Noted. Keep arranging those deck chairs as the Titanic sinks.
The right-wing is scrambling to counter this good news. The DJIA is up 300+ right now. All of the Republicans' election eggs lie in the "bad economy" basket. They must be (*)(*)(*)(*)ting themselves continuously starting a few weeks ago.
Btw - silver is up over 5% so far today. Thank you to the EU and your ridiculous bailout - you are making me lots of money. Keynesians are so wonderfully predictable. Spend, spend, spend.
Umm...the DOW is up because Americans dipped into their dwindling savings to temporarily boost the GDP AND the EU taxpayers got hit with a $1+ trillion dollar bill to try and bailout banks/Greece/Italy/etc.... It's not up because of anything fundamentally sustainable.
God(*)(*)(*)(*) I'm like the Nostradamus of PF or something... just like clockwork. I only give your post about a 4 out of 10 because you didn't use the terms socialism, Obama, abortion or 'the gay agenda' even once....
Sorry pal...but I am neither the right wing or a Republican. But I imagine the Reps will counter it - just as the Dems counter news that they think makes their party look bad. But you are missing my point. How can unsustained GDP growth due to Americans shrinking their savings' AND the EU trying to solve a debt crisis with more debt be good news?
Yes, compared to the double dip recession many like you were predicting, it's great news. http://www.politicalforum.com/econo...le-dip-recession-will-happen.html#post4574543 'Recession signals in the world’s largest economy are flashing red again. http://www.politicalforum.com/economics-trade/201956-cut-household-spending-points-recession.html It should be ridiculously obvious that the economy is teetering on a double-dip. http://www.politicalforum.com/econo...kroszner-says-qe3-not-likely.html#post4114793 Well, maybe it's not great news to those invested in failure for political purposes. You would have been happier if the news showed the economy heading back into a recession?
I don't know what will happen to the DOW (I highly doubt that was my prediction to drop 6-9K). But I do believe there will be another recession. When? No idea...it all depends how many economic bullets those in power keep firing. And I think the best possible thing for America would be to leave the economy alone, let it fall into recession, let it hit that 'natural' economic bottom it is going to hit eventually anyway and let America's economy finally start to grow again in a sustainable and fiscally sound fashion.
It's inevitable. But the question is when. Your chicken little attitude discredits every dire prediction you make since you make so many of them. How's that hyperinflation coming, by the way? Just around the corner? Still?
Credibility meter falling, falling. Because Americans are spending more, which is the sine qua non of economic growth? Because sometimes you have to spend more money to make money. I love your dreamy notion that thrift works at the macroeconomic level, even though there is no evidence to support this notion, and indeed, the evidence is to the contrary.
If a short depression is what the economy requires to hit it's 'natural' bottom...then the sooner it happens, the better. And even if a depression did happen - it would be NOTHING like the Great Depression in terms of personal hardship for the lower classes. Medicaid/Medicare, food stamps, unemployment insurance, welfare, social security..NONE OF THESE were around at the start of the Great Depression. No one need starve or go without shelter or basic medical care now...no matter how bad a depression got. But whatever the economy 'wants/needs' to do...it should be allowed to do it and get it over with. Because, I believe that until it does - America will not get back to decent fundamentals for a lasting period of economic growth and prosperity for all Americans. Right now, virtually the only ones doing well are the rich as the lower classes pour money into stimuli and bailouts which funnels into the stock holders, the commodity speculators and the corporate CEO's.
Pure speculation. At the rate the economy recessionary spiral was going, who know how much more of the economy would have been unnecessarily destroyed. Especially true if the banking system was allowed to implode and collapse. Fortunately, we didn't have to find out because of guys like Bernanke, Paulson, Bush and Obama. Unemployment insurance and things like that mitigate some, but not all of the harm caused by unemployment, I agree. They also serve to mitigate the damage of the recession because they operate in effect like a minor stimulus by providing cash for spending that otherwise wouldn't exist. I appreciate you sharing your opinion, but I'd prefer to just skip another depression, thanks. I don't see any value in promoting unnecessary destruction of the economy or jobs or lives. I appreciate you prefer that. We have acknowledged our difference of opinion on this subject before.
Oh dear the "natural bottom" meme. As if markets are a force of nature unrelated to the rules of society. Where do you get this *********y. You're like the Social Darwinist who thinks eye glasses are "unnatural" and nearsighted children should just learn to squint.
