Trump still has no path to 270 Electoral College votes-

42% chance and increasing daily, according to 538.


Btw. You forgot NC which he will win, Trump is tied Maine so he may well get 3 electoral votes there. He is doing extremely well in WI and MI, he is leading in NM some polls, Virginia is absolutely ripe for the picking... Hillary will need to win them all.

 

Just wait til trumps first post debate bump puts him in firm positions in fl, nc, and oh, and tied in virginia

 

She is. Thanks for noting that.

 

Right.... That must be why 538 has upped Trump's chances of winning to 48% (essentially a coin toss) today in their "now cast" forecast. Because today's polls have been particularly good for her and she will top 400 electoral votes. LOL Duh

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo#now&odds

 

If someone gave you a bowl of skittles and said there is a 40% chance you would live if you ate them would you do it?

 

It's 48% chance now if the election was held today. Would you eat it if your chance of dying was 48%? or even 40%? LOL libs are funny.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo#now

 

Romney WON NC. In my post I referenced "Holds the Romney Map".

So, obviously, that meant that I have Trump winning NC. "Duh" (<--you understand that term? Right?)

My analysis didn't "forget North Carolina".

Just pay better attention before the next time you respond to one of my posts.

Thanks in advance, and happy trolling.

 

Fair enough, my bad, you did not forget North Carolina. Good boy That said, Romney got 206 electoral votes. Based on your analysis the 4 states where Trump is leading (FL +29, OH + 18, IA + 6 and NV + 6 = 59) gets him to 265 electoral votes. Hillary will need to literally win all other swing states (CO, NM, WI, MI, PA, NH, ME, VA) - every single one of them or she loses.

 

I'm really going to miss you after the post-debate polls come out....

 

RCP "no tossups" map moved FL to Clinton today (after the new poll showing her leading by 5).

Current RCP "no tossups" map = Clinton 301 Trump 237

 

In which universe does Trump have a "2% to 5% national lead"?

 

Nowhere does it state that American culture is locked in granite and must remain fossilized in the past. Adaption is the key to survival and it doesn't matter if the culture alters as long as the core Constitutional principles remain.

 

Translation? "As long as women and racial and religious minorities accept White Male Rule Forever...they're welcome to live here in America."

 

What is wrong with white male rule...it got us the wonders of the modern world.

You will remember that soon after most countries gave women the right to vote we had two of the bloodiest wars in recorded history...coincidence? I
Slightly joking

 

I don't believe you......




that you're "joking"...at all.



BTW, you are the T-rex....who has seen the comet strike the Yucatan....but still roars in defiance as the dust cloud spreads.

 

As I said I was "slightly" joking.
You think this hollow disease known as liberalism has the staying ability? I do not see historical precedent, nor do I see a biological argument for the values your breed espouses. The Koombaya (*)(*)(*)(*) has never been truly tested, and I doubt it would survive any major upheaval to our systems.

 

In the universe you choose not to look at. But there is some good news for you, it's now down to about a 1% to 4% lead.

 

I think the "hollow disease" of racism and sexism is doomed. The demographic change alone, if you want to ignore the societal change (younger people are more multi-cultural for one thing).

From David Duke...to the "watered down" version... Trump....it's made up primarily of OLD men....who aren't being replaced very well.

- - - Updated - - -

For future reference....what polls are you citing that you trust as accurate?

 

Demographics? Rome was far more diversified then the USA, but it was the Roman males who ran (*)(*)(*)(*) and they were darn successful. This social experiment and disease called liberalism has no long term future, it will die from within.

 

Dream on. I'll give you a free lesson on how to objectively analyse the polls. Be very afraid. It boils down to the debate. If Trumps peforms well, he is going to be your next president. Full stop. Or period if you like it more.

By the way, Mish has already proved to be more accurate than Nate Silver. Scary, isn't it?

Is Trump Really Behind in Colorado? New Hampshire? Meme of the Campaign in Reverse
https://mishtalk.com/2016/09/20/is-...ew-hampshire-meme-of-the-campaign-in-reverse/

Mentally move Colorado into the Trump column where it belongs. Guess what happens?

The meme of the campaign becomes … Despite a huge momentum shift to Trump, Hillary has to hold on to every state she has, plus she needs to pick up at least one state in Trump’s column.

If Trump does well in the debates, he will win the election.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

 

The National Review hates Trump, they have led the "never trump" establishment RINO's, some issues were filled with rants about how Trump is bad and we should not support him. In other words, NR wants Hilary to win. You might as well just go to the Hilary campaign as use NR.

I and others stopped reading NR months ago.

 

No !

As long as cats of all colors, both Foreign and Domestic, live in peace together,

They are welcome to live here in America !

They can always go somewhere else, if anyone hates it here in the U.S. that much.

 

Unlike you, I don't trust any poll as being accurate; so even with the ones I rely upon the most, I factor in a 3% discount. So if a poll shows Trump leading nationally by 4.1%, I have some confidence that he is ahead by 1.1%.

How about you Gorn, is there any poll favorable to Hillary that you do NOT take at face value; and is there any poll favorable to Trump that you DO take at face value?

 

It happens every election - no matter what the reality, we end up with a "tight race" that seems to be fashioned by the media on purpose. Got to keep the voters interested and not entirely depressed (on one side, at least), right? Can't have two months or more of one side facing a hopeless situation.

 

Is there a poll that has Trump winning at least 270 electoral votes? Seems to me his favorable polls ignore that minor point and are probably focused on certain red and swing states.