Virus death rate is .5 precent

Discussion in 'Coronavirus Pandemic Discussions' started by Quasar44, Apr 28, 2020.

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  1. Injeun

    Injeun Well-Known Member

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    That seems to be the general consensus. I heard from two Doctors who ran out the numbers by comparing antibody results with test results from other teams of Doctors around the nation and concluded that the death rate to the population is actually 0.03%, which would top out at about 100,000 deaths nationwide and essentially immunize the remainder by natural means. They recommend cautious opening, with the susceptible taking practical precautions. Anyway, thanks for the response. Sometimes it good to hear the same thing more than once. ;-)
     
  2. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    ....what? You literally quoted the doctor saying 15% need hospitalization and 5% will die in the article you linked to me about 80% being mild or asymptomatic.
     
  3. ButterBalls

    ButterBalls Well-Known Member

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    YUP, and again you were mistaken about were I got my information :)

    Nopers you are wrong! :no::no::no::no:
     
  4. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    I'm sorry...are you suggesting that you didn't find your article from webmd? Or that WebMD does not have the exact same article that you linked?
     
  5. ButterBalls

    ButterBalls Well-Known Member

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    Wow impressive, don't let no one say it doesn't take you more then three time to see a point made!!
     
    Last edited: Apr 29, 2020
  6. Bearack

    Bearack Well-Known Member

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    Huh?? The flu 2018 is was horrific in our hospital compared to what we are seeing today. We were over 86% capacity in 2018 with 2020, currently, below 30% capacity. These are real numbers that no one is paying attention to!


    https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/season/flu-season-2017-2018.htm

    "During the 2017-2018 season, the percentage of deaths attributed to pneumonia and influenza (P&I) was at or above the epidemic threshold for 16 consecutive weeks. During the past five seasons, the average number of weeks this indicator was above threshold was 11 (range of 7 to 15 weeks). Nationally, mortality attributed to P&I exceeded 10.0% for four consecutive weeks, peaking at 10.8% during the week ending January 20, 2018."






     
  7. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    Plenty of people are paying attention to those numbers. And the fact that Covid-19 has killed approximately the same number of people in five weeks as the 2017-2018 flu killed during the entire season is one of the many, many reasons why Covid-19 is much more dangerous.
     
  8. Bearack

    Bearack Well-Known Member

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    You do realize there was a minimum of 80,000 deaths attributed to Influenza B in 2018.

    An estimated 80,000 Americans died of flu and its complications last winter, according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. This means it was the deadliest season in more than four decades -- since 1976, the date of the first published paper reporting total seasonal flu deaths, said CDC Spokeswoman Kristen Nordlund.

    And based upon CDC guidelines, if a patient dies that has similar signs and not tested to confirm, they are strongly suggesting to mark death as COVID-19 related. That could ABSOLUTELY include patients who have died from Influenza A or B or any form of respiratory distress symptoms. Again, our ICU is at 1/3 it's normal capacity. Again, real numbers!

    upload_2020-4-30_12-13-39.png
     
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  9. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    No.

    upload_2020-4-30_14-47-28.png

    https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

    I believe you said something about real numbers?
     
    Last edited: Apr 30, 2020
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  10. Pred

    Pred Well-Known Member

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    Dangerous enough to close 1000s of businesses, lose how much of our retirement, kill millions of jobs? For what? A few 10s of thousands more than we take for granted every year? Think hard about your answer. You can’t treat Coronavirus deaths on top of what the flu normally kills since COVID was just killing the same people the Flu kills ordinarily. Yes. It’s more dangerous. But has our response been overblown? Yeah. For areas less effected.
     
  11. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    Yes. Absolutely.

    Covid-19 has killed an additional 60,000 on top of the estimated 24,000-62,000 killed from the flu in the 2019-20 season. That has happened in five weeks and despite very strict pandemic control measures.

    And Covid-19 is not finished.
     
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  12. Bearack

    Bearack Well-Known Member

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    And that was CDC initial estimates as you apparently didn't read the footnotes of the CDC website?

    upload_2020-4-30_13-9-51.png

    The real numbers were greater than 80K

    National Foundation for Infectious Disease actually tracks these numbers and these numbers were reported to all major institutions.
     
  13. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    That CDC estimate reflects a downward adjustment based on data which is newer than the source you cited.

    That is why the CDC website - currently - says 61K and you had to use a 2+ year old article to say 80K.
     
    Last edited: Apr 30, 2020
  14. Pred

    Pred Well-Known Member

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    So basically, maybe a double flu year that no one even thinks about ordinarily? Hard to say if it was all worth it. Half were going to die if we shut down or not. The flu doesn’t stop the economy ever. Far more lives destroyed by the response than just those who might have died anyway or were a couple years off. Still terrible. But perspective.
     
    Last edited: Apr 30, 2020
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  15. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    No one thinks about the flu ordinarily because we expect to see tens of thousands dead from the flu each year. Because we have vaccines. Because we have antivirals. Because we have data regarding the lethality and contagiousness of the flu.

    We didn't expect Covid-19. We have no vaccine. We have no antivirals. We have very rough estimates of the lethality/contagiousness of Covid-19.

    We will never know if over-reacted to this virus. We will definitely know if we under-reacted. And either way, I would prefer the over-reaction to the under.
     
  16. phoenyx

    phoenyx Well-Known Member

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    Influeza vaccines are generally vastly over rated. Here's an excerpt from a good article on the subject as a letter to the editor of The Toronto Star:
    **
    The Best Means of Protecting Against the Flu?

    Ms. Goldenberg, you make the claim “immunization is our best means for diminishing the average 12,200 flu related hospitalizations and 3,500 flu deaths across Canada annually reported by Statistics Canada.” What evidence do you have to support such a claim?

    The fact is the influenza vaccine is recognized as the least effective vaccine product on the market. The vaccine used in the 2012-2013 flu season was only 27% effective. The 2014-2015 influenza vaccine was only 23% effective. During the 2016 flu season the CDC removed FluMist from the US market because it was found to be only 3% effective. Canada continued to endorse its use in spite of its ineffectiveness.

    The Cochrane Collaboration, the world’s foremost group of unbiased researchers, physicians and scientists, performed a series of meta-analyses on the effectiveness of the influenza vaccine. In 2014 they found that vaccinating adults against influenza did not affect the number of people hospitalized nor decrease lost work. [1]

    The Cochrane Collaboration’s examination of influenza vaccines in healthy adults, a body of literature spanning 25 studies and involving 59,566 people, found the annual influenza vaccine reduced overall clinical influenza by about six percent. It would reduce absenteeism by only 0.16 days (about four hours) for each influenza episode. According to Dr. Tom Jefferson at the Cochrane Collaboration, it makes little sense to keep vaccinating against seasonal influenza based on the evidence. [2]
    **

    Source: https://vaccinechoicecanada.com/med...flu_vaccine_claims_not_supported_by_evidence/
     
  17. Pycckia

    Pycckia Well-Known Member

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    It is not a question of CARING. You could lock down for a year and the infection will still spread and people will still die when you open up, and while you are locked down for that matter.
     
  18. Lesh

    Lesh Banned

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    Look at South Korea. We have 60,000 deaths...they have a couple thousand.

    Seoul is more heavily populated than NYC so...

    Yea...locking down does work
     
  19. Lesh

    Lesh Banned

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  20. Pycckia

    Pycckia Well-Known Member

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    They didn't accomplish that by locking down but by testing and contact tracing. Once the cat is out of the bag locking down fails as it failed in the US and Europe. Look at all those European countries which locked down.

    Seems to me that everybody expects a resurgence in the fall. Are we going to lock down again?
     
  21. Pycckia

    Pycckia Well-Known Member

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    And you were just telling me that locking down works. Now you say it isn't over by a long shot.

    Make up your mind.
     
  22. Lesh

    Lesh Banned

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    It does work. Did someone say it was only going to be a week?

    Wuhan shut down for 74 days. They shut down TIGHT

    Georgia infection cases are already rising.

    Every time that happens it sets us back further and makes the lock down last longer.

    Brilliant strategy
     
  23. Lesh

    Lesh Banned

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    Actually it was a combination of locking down, testing, and contact tracing. We have done none of that

    And we're paying the consequence now.

    Yea...we missed the best chance of minimizing this...that only makes it harder.
     
  24. jay runner

    jay runner Banned

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    The first coronavirus patient in the USA was diagnosed, confirmed by CDC, treated with Remdesivir, cured, and sent home from the hospital in the second half of Janurary from Providence hospital in Everett, WA.

    Yet the FDA let 3 months pass and over 60,000 people die before issuing an approval on Remdesivir.

    The scientists at FDA don't have a lick of common sense or an ounce of compassion.
     
    Last edited: May 1, 2020
  25. jay runner

    jay runner Banned

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    The first coronavirus patient in the USA was diagnosed, confirmed by CDC, treated with Remdesivir, cured, and sent home from the hospital in the second half of Janurary from Providence hospital in Everett, WA.

    Yet the FDA let 3 months pass and over 60,000 people die before issuing an approval on Remdesivir.

    The scientists at FDA don't have a lick of common sense or an ounce of compassion.
     

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