Waiting for Superbatteries They are still a long way from matching the energy density of liquid fue

That's what I thought. So you clearly don't understand what you're talking about.

You probably don't understand that F150, F250, and F350 and their van and SUV equivalents are indeed "light trucks", do you?

So basically they're going to push to eliminate the vehicles that are the meat and potatoes of plumbers, ranch hands, farmers, electricians, and any number of other skilled tradesmen and women.

Now go back and reread what I originally said and see if you can now understand it. And stop pretending you know anything about it.

 

No, you were talking about delivering product from manufacturing and agriculture.

As for the workers you address, I don't believe they will have a problem with the zero emissions options available by 2035.

Several manufacturers have significant pickups and vans that are zero emission vehicles TODAY.

I didn't realize that is what you were worried about, as that need is clearly being addressed.

 

As I've explained numerous times, EVs are totally a bust where work is concerned. They simply fail in every dimension. It's the nature of battery power (I could explain that again for the technically naive, but if you look up thread I've probably already gone through it 2 or 3 times). There is no useful "zero emission" option.

And that's where the EV nation idea crashes into the shoals of reality and dies.

 

I know your belief on this.

 

I would question that, as that sounds like one of those loaded statements designed to mislead.

https://www.capitalone.com/cars/learn/finding-the-right-car/how-long-do-cars-last/1512

And a lot of that is based on the trade-in value as well. And with the lower value in EVs, I bet those generally are used until failure and will be assumed to have little trade in value at the end.

But at this time, there is really not many places outside of a dealer that can work on an EV or hybrid. They are so different that almost none have experience in them, or have easy access to parts. It's kind of the same for going to your local computer tech and wanting them to fix your Macintosh. Most do not have experience in them, and there is not much in replacement parts out there as Apple refuses to sell them to third party techs.

And you can't have the drivetrain repaired, just replaced. As I said, even techs can't work on them.

 

Thankfully, only California at this time seems to be that stupid.

 

Hell, I could not have really used an EV most of the time I lived in California. It literally was not unusual for me to have a 150-200+ mile round trip every single day. And in the time I was home not enough time to really give one a full charge.

Of course, for much of that I actually drove a motorcycle. Awesome gas mileage, and manufacturing it took a fraction of the raw materials as making a car. And we had other benefits, like permanent carpool status, half price bridge tolls, and special low cost parking spots. A hell of a lot of the traffic and parking problems in the big cities there would largely go away if even 1/3 of the solo drivers in car used motorcycles instead. And if not riding to work, I took the ferry.

Here is the funny part, I tend to be towards the "Conservative" end of the political spectrum. Yet, I tended to live more "green" than most of the far-left in that state. They were the kind that tended to think "getting to nature" was driving at 65 through a state park in their SUV to stay at a $300 a night resort. Meanwhile, I would spend days camping in a tent on my motorcycle.

 

Which is a catch-22. Faster charging reduces battery life.

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.th...er-shells-could-used-make-renewable-batteries

Huge if true

 

We will see. In maybe a decade if we are lucky.

Only fools and dreamers believe those kinds of announcements.

 

Sounds like they've already successfully done it.

"The researchers in Maryland have developed batteries that use a product derived from crustacean shells to store energy."

Though they do mention other hurdles these batteries need to tackle before they can hit market. But 10 years ago current car batteries had half the range and power as they do right now. This tech is constantly evolving.

 

Yeah from what I understand the design will only fast charge up to about 80% to help reduce that. Pretty sure that's how most EV's handle that.

 

Energy storage is always a lossy process (considering today's tech and physics).

The quantum batteries are even wilder, if you haven't seen those. I think a lot of our future tech lies in quantum mechanics. That stuff would look like magic to us if we could see it now.

Still, here's the real litmus test:

Can they deliver an EV that resembles the current cost, replacement, and performance of an ICE engine.

I.E. can someone's current driving habits and car routine behavior for the average person when it comes to an ICE engine be replicated with an EV.

I think they're getting close now. If they can make low end/used EV's affordable and repairable at local shops, then they'll really start making inroads as long as they can also be charged with the same or less hassle as we have filling our gas tanks now.

 

Yeah it was interesting when I was looking into it.

There are two figures: one for the average age of all vehicles on the road, and one for how often the consumer replaces a car.

Perhaps the first includes work vehicles or something that streteches out the average age....or used vehicles are included in there where people are buying used cars. People are still replacing their cars every 7 years, but they're not buying new ones. I dunno.

Yeah the Prius is a great example of that. Prius graveyards are starting to get pretty expansive.

And yes, I would think that if someone is going to spend (at the very lowest end) $30k on an EV, they're not going to want to have to ship it halfway across the country for repair if it's their only vehicle. That's just not tenable.

Any specific reason why the drivetrain can't be repaired? I'll have to take a look into that.

 

The drivetrain is a battery and an electric motor, neither of which is easily repaired when they fail. Not like an ICE powertrain, every piece of which can be fixed for the most part.

 

Do they operate like ICE engines using geared differentials/driveshafts/etc?

Is the regenerative system tied into that?

Are there any hydraulic type systems like in an auto transmission?

I'm assuming it's still going to be a bunch of gears and bearings, but I could be wrong.

 

No, nothing. The primary reason for the diminished performance of EVs compared to ICE is that it's just an electric motor.

 

Ah I'm starting to see the comparison when looking at torque x RPM, when the electric motor is capable of both much more torque and easily 3 times the RPM range of an ICE engine.

Looks like the driveshafts simply plug into the motor for 2wd, and a separate motor is used for 4wd applications.

the single gear ratio is interesting, and makes reverse gearing as simple as spinning in the opposite direction.

 

The first study into Lithium Ion batteries was in the middle 1950s. The first actual real world tests were in 1965. The first attempts to manufacture them was in 1974, but failed because of the high cost of the batteries. The battery was finally sold commercially in 1987.

The first photoelectric cell was developed in 1888. The first photo cell to produce a decent current was in 1904. The effect was finally understood when working on Dr. Einstein's Nobel Prize winning work in 1905, a fuller description was finally published in 1948. And their first real world use was Vanguard I in 1958. And it was not until the 2000's that they really became affordable and available for anything other than curiosities and curios.

There, does that give you a decent timeline of what real world history R&D is like?

I just have to shake my head when somebody shows they read some report, and think that the final outcome of that preliminary report is going to be on sale next year or something.

These kinds of things take decades normally to go from that point to a final product. Not to mention they are going to be used animal shells? Animal shells?

So in order to make this possible, we are now supposed to largely destroy ecosystems in order to harvest all these shells? For batteries?

Sounds to me like one of the most destructive things they could do to the environment. In much of the world crab and lobster populations are already closely monitored because centuries of overharvesting has lowered populations to the point that some are barely viable. And now, you hope they work because it means better batteries.

 

Well, notice right off the bat it is not called a transmission, but a gearbox. Also notice, they do not actually have "gears" in the same way a transmission does. Drive an EV, you will notice that the gear effect is just not there. But the principals are not even close to each other, only so far as there are gears, and it transmits power from one end to another. They work more akin to the belt and pully arrangement on a drill press than a conventional transmission.

Until COVID shut everything down, I was going to Universal Technical Institute, the largest automotive school in the country. And one thing the instructors were always telling us was how we could largely put the idea of working on electric vehicles right out of our heads. Unless once we got our ASE certifications we went to work for a dealer and they paid to have us further trained in their vehicles. Our instructor for transmissions went a bit more into detail, and he is the one that was working at the local Toyota Dealer on weekends. Even at the Dealer level, they do not fix the things, just replace them and send them back to the manufacturer.

And one of the reasons myself or others can so easily rebuild a transmission is that they are all largely the same. You can pull the transmission out of a Chevy, and throw it in a Toyota. Manufacturer of the vehicle does not even matter, they do not make the transmissions. But buy them COTS just like me or anybody else. And a 2020 transmission is little different than a 1960 transmission, other than some addition of electronics. But gearboxes? Each is different, and there are not enough companies supplying the third party with replacements for what may fail, let alone enough who know how to work on them because they are not transmissions.

Technically, they can be repaired. Almost anything can be repaired, but why? 30 years ago when a computer keyboard was still a $100 item, I remember actually desoldering bad capacitors on one and replacing them, as that was only a buck or two compared to the price of a keyboard. Today, a lot of tech work I will not even waste my time doing, like replacing a broken power connector on the cheap $150 netbooks. Two to three hours of labor, to replace a $5 part? At $65 an hour? Nope, I told dozens of customers to just throw the damned thing away and get a new one.

And for EVs, it is very much the "Apple Problem". There is no real market out there yet for replacement parts, and it is doubtful there ever will be. No parts, no way to fix something.

 

Actually, in many cases like that they can be "easily repaired".

The actual concept of rebuilding you own alternator is amazingly simple. Replace the brushes and bushings, then unwind the copper wire and wind it again. And it takes I was told it takes roughly a mile of fine copper wire, around 2.5 pounds of it to really rebuild it. Nothing real complicated to do, I made my own electric motors and things like radio tuning coils and the like 40 years ago in electronics class. And how much of your time is wasted winding copper wire around armatures when you can just buy a new one for far less once the time is taken into consideration?

There is a reason why "component level repair" has become foreign to most technicians in the last few decades. Yes, at one time it was cost effective to replace individual parts, but not anymore. As part prices have plummeted and automation taken over, the actual labor cost has increased.

And if anybody does not believe me, look in your phone book or Google how many TV and radio repair shops you have in your area. If you are lucky you might find one. Where as I am old enough to remember not all that long ago when they were everywhere. And going to even a drug store they might have a tube tester in the front so if you were brave enough you could pull out the tubes and test them yourself.



Those were commonly seen almost anywhere until the late 1980s and early 1990s. Then, they pretty much vanished. Nobody but hobbyists anymore really fixes TVs, they just throw them away and buy new ones.

And each year that passes, we become more and more of a disposable economy.

 

I agree that it's not there yet, but as/if adoption increases, 3rd party options will manifest themselves. Even if that just means part swapping.

Ehhh transmissions aren't as plug and play as that. That breaks down to wiring, bus types, connector types, the engine power band, physical mating of engine to bell housing, spacing between engine/transmission, input shaft etc etc. I can't just pick out a better transmission for my Wrangler than the 42RLE and replace it with another one. I've looked.

I agree with computers and also advise replacement in a lot of cases. Most big box versions of computers though is either a power supply, a motherboard, or a hard drive. It's not like the old days where every board was an add in and you had to fight with IRQs and DMA's to get everything to work.

I would guess when it comes to EV 90% of the repairs would be replacing the motor, an axelshaft, a battery (looks like they still use 12V accessory batteries), and basic stuff like brakes. I'm not even sure if they use brake pads in the regenerative braking system now that I think about it.

All I'm sure of is that if people start buying them, people will start popping up to service them if there's money to be made doing it.

 

EV drive trains are definitely different from ICE drive trains.

What are the maintenance and repair needs for an EV drive train?

Maybe we should just consider Tesla, as they are pretty open about how their cars work and they aren't the knock-offs some manufacturers are trying by just replacing the ICE with an electric motor - which is a horrible solution.

 

It seems like the whole auto manufacturing direction has been moving away from the idea that owners can do maintenance on their car.

EVs are a major step in that direction. The number of ICE systems that just don't exist in an EV is pretty amazing.

So, even if all necessary maintenance could be done by a 3rd party shop, I can't believe it will be the same kind of business opportunity that ICE shops have. Plus, the whole supply chain of ICE parts will have to reduce to some extent over longer time if EV sales keep going up and ICE cars age out.

 

Right to repair is winning.

If manufacturer only repairs are allowed then you are again creating a situation where a lot of people won't be able to get their cars fixed.

There's a reason that people refer to the dealership as the stealership. Their prices are often markedly higher than independent repair shops.

A lot of maintenance will still be needed. Tires, brakes, looks like they still will be using ethylene glycol based cooling systems too. Axelshafts, alignments. Wiring will be simplified but as long as there are wires and connectors in a car they will always have electrical problems. Body repair, of course. Wiper moters, switches, dash components, steering components, body markers/lights.

Still plenty that can go wrong to need a repair shop for those not mechanically inclined.