We should not choose to fight a war with China if they invade Taiwan

Taiwan isn't worth it.

 

And what would that do to all our other mutation defense pacts? I'm sure our allies might have some second thoughts about changing sides and our adversaries may become bolder and more aggressive.

 

Two words: Iraq Afghanistan.

 

A lot of that has to do with its border dispute with China and the Spratly Islands which Vietnam claims it is their territory along with 6 other countries from the Philippines to Taiwan to China and a few others.

This is not left wing anything. From Richard Nixon to Reagan, we had an "agreement" with a One China, two systems." that was the basis of Nixon when he came to China to open negotiations after the ping pong diplomacy China sent to the US. From Bush Sr onward, and especially after the British handed over Hong Kong to China in 1997, that agreement has been questioned by both us AND china for political purposes. But it was in the Bush Jr Administration that China began to change the laws in Hong Kong to fit the laws in China, including special visas for Chinese mainland nationals who need special permission to live in Hong Kong, among others.

 

I agree in principle in what you posted. Furthermore, China, the PRC, is watching the Ukraine War very closely. If Ukraine's military is able to withstand a Russian Invasion, then China thinks it can happen with Taiwan. Second, China does not have a blue water navy, which is what you will need against Japan AND the US. Japan's military is very capable even though technically, it is not a military armed force. Third, as you pointed out, our satellite intel will see the buildup long before the actual event happens. That is just enough time for our diplomats to talk to their diplomats to come up with a solution. No such thing existed with Russia although rumors are we tried.

But what we are really conveying here with talk not to protect Taiwan is that we will abandon our allies to save our own skin. And that is more dangerous than any possible or probable invasion of Taiwan by China can achieve. Why should our allies trust us in trade, defense, or security interests when we will turn tail and run on the first sign of trouble because we think those two big ponds will protect us? Come On Mike.

 

I’m Seth, not Mike, but no worries.

If China attacked Taiwan, and if we did not go to war with China, I don’t believe that would be interpreted as us being an unreliable ally to those countries and organizations like NATO and SEATO to which we are obligated to defend. And it is worthwhile to note that we have actually done a lot for Ukraine, even though we have no obligation to Ukraine.

 

You may want to look at the US-Japan Security Treaty which includes Formosa, aka Taiwan. Since the 2000s, we have continued have issue joint statements with Taiwan, Japan, and the US to defend Taiwan from an unproved attack. In 2021, Japan's Defense strategy includes Taiwan and an extension of the military alliance ever since the 1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis. The greater role Japan is playing is also why we would be involved if China invades Taiwan because of Japan.

https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/us-japan-security-alliance

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/In...urity-treaty-into-space-to-protect-satellites

As for my Mike Comment, that was not directed at you, but to the poster Mike. I should have made that more clear.

 

There is no winning in a modem war? Please explain that. There is ground to be gained. Industrial capacity to be captured. Population to be increased. Kind os like always.

 

This, we do need to accelerate development. The issue is that the decade of the 90's-2000's saw a complete lack of development. Politicians saw a quick buck overseas and took it, to the detriment of us all. Supply chains and the cost of manufacturing rising.

 

There are a record number of illegal young fit invaders that are from China that have crossed our borders and are already here....

Wake up America.

 

SEATO was dissolved 30 June 1977.
Ukraine has little to do with our national security. Taiwan is vital.

 

I haven't heard anybody advocating for going to war over Taiwan. Have you?

In any case, China is currently in no economic position to start any wars. And if they were, we'd probably do the same as with Ukraine, in other words, pay for their weapons but otherwise get not involved.

 

They already have invaded our border and are here.

 

China is cocked and locked for war... flying combat patrols in Taiwanese airspace... conducting naval exercises with Russia... they are READY.

 

I didn't know about SEATO being dissolved. I learned of its existence in school in the 70s and thought it still existed. So you made me do a little homework, and I see that we have security agreements with countries along the eastern Pacific Rim and Australia instead. Why do you consider Taiwan to be "vital"?

 

Then China cant afford to.

 

SEATO was dissolved for several reasons. Pakistan withdrew when Eastern Pakistan became independent and is now Bangladesh. France withdrew its financial support. South Vietnam was defeated in 1971, technically, and finally agreed to dissolve voluntiarily. But two other organizations replaced SEATO. One is ASEAN, the East Asia version of the EC, or European Consortium, and the Five Power Defense Agreement, with Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Malaysia, and Singapore.

 

If China absorbs Taiwan, it will control over 75% of the world's production of microchips. Microchips are an essential component of everything from cars to computers, from TV's to missiles, from the control of our electrical grid to telephones, and more. Their control of 75% of the industry gives them tremendous leverage in their struggle for global control.

 

Naval Exercise was in the Aleutian Islands. Going into Taiwan Airspace is to test the defenses and reaction times. But we do the same thing with our P-3 aircraft, and the Rimpac military exercises. Does that mean we are ready for war too?

 

Then we should get our rear ends in gear and build them ourselves or have a longstanding ally do it, like Japan or South Korea as examples.

I don't want our young people dying for microchips. And if we are to go to war against a nuclear power, I do not want to do that for microchips.

I am a vet from a peacetime era (mid 70s), but my son is a combat vet (USMC) from Iraq (Purple Heart) and Afghanistan. He is now a federal employee in the IC on his third deployment in that capacity to a middle eastern hot spot for a total of 5 all together. I have been to Bethesda when it was full of our gravely wounded. I know Gold Star parents. I've been to the funerals. I've seen many of your posts in the past. If I'm reading you right, you've been through similar experiences, so you know what I'm talking about.

And I'm sorry, but microchips are not worth it.

I am a freedom-loving American patriot. My sympathies lie with Taiwan. But an inconvenient truth is that Taiwan (Formosa) was Chinese territory for literally hundreds of years before 1949 when it was taken from them by the losers of their civil war. From a dispassionate technical standpoint, I can understand China's position that Taiwan is a part of China and that they are therefore entitled to have jurisdiction over it. I don't like it. I don't prefer it. But, my likes and preferences aside, I understand it. If they were to invade Taiwan, it would not be like invading a foreign country, like Russia invading Ukraine, or Hitler invading Poland, or Japan invading the Philippines. And since it would not be like that, I would have no fear that it would encourage them to set their sights on other countries in the region, especially since we have solid defense agreements with those other countries. No, I see no "domino" threat if they retake Taiwan.

All this talk of war is just another reason why I don't like being dependent on other countries for things we can do ourselves.

 

Setting ourselves up to achieve "microchip independence" is obviously the right thing to do. But that will take years... and we don't have years. If we lose free access to microchips, we would suffer the same fate as an EMP (ElecrtroMagnetic Pulse) attack, although it would take considerably more time to get to the end state. But make no doubt about it... its back to the 1860's.

You'll forgive me if I simply think like the Soldier I am and was trained to be. I really don't care about the validity of China's historic claim on Taiwan. I only care about America now. I don't care about what happened in 1949... I only care about what happens to America in the 2020's and 2030's. Its quite obvious tat China's move to Taiwan would be part of a larger aggression including South Korea (Kim's recent trip to China cemented their "team"), Japan, and probably more... like the Philippines. This won't be any "Domino Effect"... it will be one joint effort China and Russia are now a well established team from their joint goals in Ukraine to their joint naval exercises in the Pacific to their joint economic efforts. We have no effective mutual defense agreements in the Pacific. SEATO was disbanded in 1977.

I don't like being dependent on other countries either. I had triple bypass surgery in 2014 and take a boatload of meds every day since then. Most are made in China. I don't like being reliant on other countries either... but we are. And we have to deal with it.
Just for the record, I'm not concerned about an all-out nuclear war. The use of nukes may a part of the conflict, but only on a tactical level. We can discss that if you wish.

 

If it were Japan, South Korea, The Philippines, New Zealand, or Australia whose security was threatened by China, I would see it differently. These are indisputably sovereign countries and longstanding allies. If any of them were attacked, we would have to then go to war. I also supported the war we waged in Afghanistan, seeing it as justified and necessary to the defense of our country. So I am not some hippy dove. But "justified" and "necessary" are crucial to me, especially if we are going to take on the risks and consequences of war, both foreseen and unforeseen.

And the history does matter to me, for it is the history that is at the crux of the whole argument over the possibility of the war we're talking about and whether or not it is justified.

I was not aware that we were so dependent upon China for medicines until during the Trump administration when trade with China became a hot topic. Crazy that we have allowed that to happen. If war over Taiwan broke out between the U.S. and China, I would expect the Chinese to immediately cut off trade with the U.S., including the export of medicines. America has got to resolve to stop being so dependent on other countries like China, like Taiwan, like the Middle East, for things that we must have and which we are capable of producing for ourselves.

I am aware of what tactical nukes are. Low yield nukes capable of being fired from artillery or launched from other systems. I assume the other side has them too. Used against an adversary with ICBMs, that is a scenario fraught with the risk of escalation to a nightmarish final outcome. For microchips, not worth it.

Dwight Eisenhower is remembered for being the Supreme Allied Commander (Europe) in WW2. He is remembered a little less as our President from 1954-1960, a period of relative peace and prosperity for the United States. Personally, I think he was probably the wisest, yet perhaps the most unheralded, Presidents of the 20th Century. Quoting ...

"The older I get the more wisdom I find in the ancient rule of taking first things first. A process which often reduces the most complex human problem to a manageable proportion."

In the context of our conversation, "first things first" means that common sense should tell us that this unnecessary dependency on other countries for things we need is just plain wrong. And so "first things first" means we need to fix that ... now. And once fixed, problems become simpler. And perhaps, we won't feel the need to go to war over friggin' microchips. Quoting Eisenhower again ...

"I hate war as only a soldier who has lived it can, only as one who has seen its brutality, its futility, its stupidity."

 

Yup, its bad that we are so dependent on foreign sources of microchips. But we can't just wave a magic wand and fix it. It will take years. Meanwhile we are vulnerable. And if we don't want to have cars, aircraft, computers, televisions, medical equipment and so much more to become nothing but memories.. we better be prepared to defend Taiwan (and South Korea and Japan and...?).

A strategic nuclear war is all but impossible for many reasons. China doesn't want to conquer a US devastated and contaminated. It wants us pretty much intact to feed its people and build stuff for them.

 

"the right hated China"

You have a way to dumb down every policy discussion.

So...Congrats?

 

Since we don't live in a perfect world, there should have been some concern with an absolutely vital industry going offshore.