What is so attractive about Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton?

What WASN'T a problem with the venal, knuckledragging, mouthbreathing, egotistical pile of turds who is up to his piggy little eyes in CRIMINAL CHARGES!

 

Thanks for the links.



This one is fascinating because in 2004 with Bush jr versus Romey the White vote was also R56 D41 but shrubby won.

The difference between then and now is that whites were 67% of the vote in 2020 versus 77% back in 2004. Probably going to be about 65% in 2024.

Demographics are going to be the deciding factor because if we look at the 7 RED states that voted for abortion rights in special elections recently the win factor was 60% plus against the Xtofascist agenda so that is an indication of the MOTIVATION that will be a crucial turnout issue in 2024.

At this early stage predictions are meaningless but on demographics alone whomever is the GOP candidate will be facing an 8 digit popular vote deficit from day one of the campaign IMO.

Yes, I know, the PV is irrelevant because it always comes down to swing states and the EC. But even there the Dems have made big strides so I don't see a red path to victory yet. But early days and unknown candidates so this is all just speculation.

 

China -- demanding Prayer hour 5 + times a day ? Can't make any sense at all out of this comedy friend .. random words and phrases with no substantiation .. "Wealth Redistribution" has exactly what to do with the BRICS meeting ?

Can't see anything comical here .. just a bunch of disjointed disparriaging claims with no rational or support .. and some that is ridiculous made up nonsense "Join BRICS or account in world of hurt" ?? and nations are lining up to join BRICS .. not being forced to join. ..

 

I’d say this year, the electoral college favors the democrats slightly whereas in the past it favored the GOP. If you look at the Consensus Electoral Map, the democrats have a slight 241-235 advantage in states that are either solid, likely or lean toward one party or the other. But look at the tossup states, the swing states, Wisconsin 10, Pennsylvania 19, Georgia 16, Arizona 11, Nevada 6.

https://www.270towin.com/maps/consensus-2024-presidential-election-forecast

Pennsylvania has gone Democratic in 7 of the last 8 presidential elections with 2016 being the exception. The Democrats dominated the midterm in Pennsylvania. I would say Pennsylvania goes once again to the democrats. That would make it 260 -235. Arizona is trending toward the democrats as is Georgia. Winning either one of those would give the Democrats their 270 needed to win with Arizona or 276 if Biden were to win Georgia again. Trump chosen candidates lost in both states in the 2022 midterms. With Trump as the GOP nominee, I’d give either one or both to the democrats. Wisconsin has been trending Republican as has Nevada. But both still rejected Trump chosen candidate in 2022.

I would say the electoral math this time around is in the Democrats favor.

 

As an afterthought, here’s something else that may interest you.


Trends on the movement of States: Blue to Red or Red to Blue


There has been movement from 2000-2023 for the states from red to blue or blue to red. Below is the movement based on PVI, Partisan Voting Index along with their number of electoral votes for the 2024 presidential election. I only included swing states, no solid red or blue states.

Arizona from an R+6 down to an R+2. Moving blue. 11 electoral votes
Florida from R+1 to a R+3 getting slightly redder. 30 electoral votes
Georgia from a R+10 down to an R+3 Moving blue 16 electoral votes
Michigan from a D+6 to a R+1 Moving Red 15 electoral votes
Minnesota from a D+10 down to a D+1 moving Red 10 electoral votes
Nevada from D+3 to R+1 Moving Red 6 electoral votes
North Carolina from an R+9 down to a R+3 moving blue 16 electoral votes
Ohio From an R+4 up to an R+6 Becoming more red 17 electoral votes
Pennsylvania from D+4 to R+2 moving red 19 electoral votes
Texas from an R+10 down to an R+5 moving blue 40 electoral votes
Wisconsin from a D+10 to a R+2 moving red 10 electoral votes

 

Given Trump's many vulnerabilities, I can’t understand why the Democrats are after him so much in court. If they succeed in knocking him out of the 2024 race, they will have eliminated one of the most unelectable Republicans.

Trump is a curse on the Republican Party and for the conservative movement. One would think that four + years in politics would have taught him some lessons. Unfortunately, he's too pig headed to learn anything.

 

Thank you for that info. It will become clearer around this time next year.

However something else that you might want to consider is the demographics which show a decline of about 3 million Boomer voters from 2020 to 2024 and increase in GenZ voters of about 12 million. While this would not be of much significance given low voting rates for younger voters the key here is the abortion rights issue. 50% of those GenZ have a personal stake in 2024 as far as their healthcare rights are concerned.

I only bring this up because I doubt that was factored into the PVI or if it was then it was discounted based on prior young voter turnouts.

For the first time I am putting more weight on demographics than prior voting patterns. It has always been a factor but never of this magnitude with these issues as stake. Technically 2024 should be a Red Wave election. Just look at what is happening with Josh Hawley's Senate seat and you realize that not even red states are slam dunks any longer. Granted Hawley's issues are self inflicted but it is an opening for the Dems to offset potential loses like WV.

 

I’ve called Trump an albatross around the Republican Party’s neck. Same difference. I agree if the Democrats do force Trump out of the race, that could be their undoing as I think almost any other Republican candidate can and probably would beat the unpopular Joe Biden. Only Trump who is more unpopular can Biden beat. At least as of today.

 

Parties adjust from one election to the next. Although I don’t think the GOP has adjusted one bit from 2016. However there has been a slow trend of minorities voting more Republican as of late. In 2008 4% of black voted for McCain, 6% for Romney in 2012, 8% for Trump in 2016 and 12% for Trump in 2020. Trump Trump’s 12% was the highest percentage of the black vote any Republican presidential candidate received since Gerald Ford received 15% back in 1976.

Same for Hispanic, Romney 27% in 2012, Trump 28% in 2016, Trump 32% in 2020. The 2022 midterms saw 13% of blacks vote republican along with 39% of Hispanics. What weird about this is we’re talking Trump and Trump chosen candidates. I know 13% and 39% don’t sound like much, but those figures are improvements among those two minority groups for the Republican Party.

On abortion, I think that is already baked into the equation. That over the last 50 years of ROE that those who base their vote on the abortion issue, the avid pro-choicers have become Democrats and the avid pro-lifers became Republican. I’m probably the only one who views the abortion issue as being baked in. I think in the past midterm, Trump’s chosen candidates had much more to do with the red trickle election instead of a red wave than abortion. Masters, Walker, Diehl, Cox, Laxalt, Oz, Bolduc, Tshibaka, Palin, Lake, Schmidt, Dixon, Mastriano plus some I can’t remember all lost. Non-Trump Republican chosen candidates received on average 10 percentage points more votes than Trump Republican chosen candidates. The Democrats gained a senate seat, 2 governorships while limiting their house loses to 9 seats. One could call 2022 a blue trickle election instead of a red trickle.

 

AP/NORC poll: 76% of the public doesn't want Biden to run again; but only 69% don't want Trump to run.

 

It’s amazing how screwed up the presidential nominating system is. A majority of Americans don’t want another Biden - Trump rematch, yet the Trump cultists will force him on us along with the Democrat Party leadership which pushes Biden.