What is the future of the Republican Party?

I’m no seer or fortune teller. I do however think at least on the presidential level that a lot of independents will vote candidates instead of party. Independents voted for the candidate they liked the best, had the higher favorable rating from independents every time since 1964 with the lone exception of 2012. In 2012 Obama had a slightly higher favorable rating than Romney, but independents voted for Romney 51-48. 2012 Obama 60% favorable to Romney’s 55% favorable.


How do independents view Biden and Trump? Trump 36% favorable/58% unfavorable, question 2F. Biden 38% favorable/56% unfavorable, question 3A. The trial heat is question 24 if you want to check that out.


https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/rj3bg6ve06/econTabReport.pdf


But I like RCP which averages out all the most recent polls as to where the presidential race stands today. This doesn’t mean a thing for 2024, but if the election were held today, it’s a 100% pure tossup.


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/us/general-election-trump-vs-biden-7383.html


The difference between 2020 and today is independents. They liked Biden in 2020, but not today. In 2020 independents viewed Biden 52% favorable/46% unfavorable. Trump 43% favorable/56% unfavorable. Biden won independents 54-41 over Trump in 2020. They’re even today in the favorable/unfavorable view from independents.


As for the future past 2024, I go one election at a time. This far out, I’ll make no predictions other than you’ll have a low voter turn if it’s a rematch between Biden and Trump with a lot of independents staying home, not voting along with a high percentage of independents voting third party against both major party candidates. More like 2016 than 2020. 2016 voter turnout was 54%, independents made up 23% of those who voted with 12% voting third party. In 2020, voter turnout was 62%, independents made up 28% of those who voted with 5% voting third party.2016 you had two disliked and unwanted candidates to become the next president. In 2024, it looks like you’ll have two disliked and unwanted candidates to become the next president. History repeating itself, possibly.

I also agree, Trump, DeSantis, what the heck is the difference policy wise. But DeSantis behaves more like a presidential candidate than the obnoxious, rude, uncouth Trump. I also have a different take on the abortion issue. I think over the last 50 years, those who base their vote on abortion, those avid pro-choicers have become democrats during this time and the avid pro-lifers have become Republicans over the last 50 years. In other words, I think abortion is already baked into the equation. We'll see about that in 2024. It just a theory of mine.

 

The power-hungry faux Christian hypocritical Pence is trying to pull off a DeSantis.
DeSantis signed a 15 week abortion ban back in April 2022 while claiming to be such a pro-life sanctity of life Christian who could easily have enforced the 6 week ban.
His political future was more important to him then his so-called religious beliefs.
DeSantis knew damn well that he would have lost many Independent votes had he done that so he waited until after winning the 2020 governor's race for the 6 week ban
Now we have Pence who has preached ad nauseam the same sanctity of life bullshit and is now a 15 week'er too.
No 6 week heartbeat ban for Pence too while he campaigns.
You are not a pro-lifer when you support abortions before 15 weeks.
You're a political whore.

'Former US Vice-President Mike Pence has challenged his rivals in the Republican presidential field to support a 15-week national abortion ban.
'He told a conservative gathering every Republican candidate for president should support 15 weeks "as a minimum nationwide standard" on abortion.'

snip:

'The leader of one such group, Marjorie Dannenfelser with Susan B Anthony Pro-Life America, has said she will oppose any presidential candidate who does not embrace a 15-week national ban.

She called Mr Pence "the definition of an unapologetic pro-life leader".


Mr Pence, who has long made his evangelical faith central to his political identity, is one of the few Republican candidates to have spoken unequivocally about his support for such a ban.

On Friday at the Faith & Freedom Coalition's annual conference in Washington DC, Mr Pence said: "Let me say from my heart - the cause of life is the calling of our time and we must not rest and must not relent until we restore the sanctity of life to the centre of American law in every state in this country."




https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-66003915

 

Talk about desperate dumb **** abortion politics.

Pence 's group is trying to get a ban on medical abortion pills yet wants a 15 week federal law on abortion.
More than 50% of females use the pills .
Medical abortion pills up to 70 days which is 9 weeks.
vs
15 week ban either state or federal.


'Mike Pence leans in on abortion politics'

snip:

'More than any other Republican candidate, the former vice president has staked his pitch to voters on his unabashed “pro-life” stance.

While some Republicans — including Trump and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie — say that in a post-Roe America, abortion policy should be left up to the states, Pence has endorsed a nationwide ban on the medical procedure at 15 weeks of gestation.

While some Republicans say the party shouldn’t weigh in on banning widely used abortion drugs, Pence’s 501(c)(4) group Advancing American Freedom has filed an amicus brief supporting a challenge to the FDA’s approval of mifepristone, the most widely used abortion pill in the country'.

'https://www.politico.com/news/2023/06/23/mike-pence-abortion-dobbs-roe-anniversary-00103353

 

Unfortunately, a large part of the GOP has moved more towards extremist views, what used to be seen as the "fringe." It is difficult, at this point, to envision a recession back to normalcy, and reason. You are absolutely right, though, about the importance of their receiving repeated, and sound, electoral thrashings. My expectation, however, is that a new, moderate Republican Party (by another name) will arise from the diaspora of true conservatives, who could not stomach (or who were ejected from) the Party of Trumpism.

At first, this may mean that the two Republican Parties are slightly smaller than the Democratic one, but probably not by as much as you might assume, since not more than about 1/5th of the current GOP, would be inclined to shift their allegiance, and the Grand New Party (of Old), will win the lion's share of Independents. Over time, hopefully, the old GOP will age out, and become an ever more minor Party; though we will have to wait and see about that.

 

If some Republicans could get over their obsession or infatuation with Donald Trump, the party and the country would be far better off.

Nicky Halley and Tim Scott are voices of reason. Either of them could win the general election because most voters would like to dump Biden. The trouble is the Trump cult (surprise, Hillary and I agree on something) can’t let go of the dead political war horse.

 

The current Republican obsession with Trump is similar to the one Democrats had with William Jennings Bryan from 1896 until 1912. Over that period of time the Democrats nominated him for president three times. He lost all three of those races by widening margins. In 1912 he threw his weight behind Woodrow Wilson for the presidential nomination. In 1924, his brother got the Democrat vice presidential nomination.



Bryan was a great public speaker who could leave his audience spellbound, like Trump. The difference, was Bryan was a "sweet man" as some people said. His ideas were crazy, but he could get along with anyone.

If you put an elephant in place of the donkey on this 1908 postcard, you can see where the Republican Party is today with respect to Trump.

 

Their bigger problem is that they don't really want to do what voters want. They would rather lose and be the controlled opposition that is on board with things like the Climate Crisis hoax, perverting children, open borders, gun confiscation, an end to freedom of speech and ultimately, the end of what we would call the USA. We'll be a nation of slaves told to shut up, obey, get in the pods, eat the bugs. You will own nothing and like it!!!!
As bad as Trump is, and he is, Biden et al are infinitely worse. And unlike Trump, they get away with it.

 

Oh Ronna, it permeates that "Fuhrer Oath" stench

Christie..no
Hutchinson..no if convicted
Hurd..no
Nikki ...YES! and slams Trump, DeSantis and other candidates for not committing.
Scott?
Other guy, forget his name?


'GOP loyalty pledge draws heat from 2024 candidates'

'The big picture: The RNC said in February that any candidate who wants to participate in the first debate will have to sign a pledge to support the eventual nominee.'

• RNC chair Ronna McDaniel called the requirement a "no-brainer" and added then that Republicans "want to see us come together."
• It's one of a number of requirements to qualify for the August debate, which also include polling and donor thresholds'

cont:
https://www.axios.com/2023/06/25/2024-loyalty-pledge-republicans-trump

 

That's the interesting part about the Trump phenomenon and the Republican party. One would think that they would want to rid themselves of this kind of tyranny from the top. But it appears they are more afraid of his base and the security of their own jobs than providing a qualified and strong candidate to the American people.

 

Ann Coulter writes of him that he simply picked up the $1,000 bill lying on the sidewalk. That regarded ending nation rape (people penetrating our borders without consent). I do wish DeSantis would wait for 2028. He is good on this issue too.

 

It’s not Trump or the 40% republican party. The entire party platform is for an old time which doesn’t exist. Last 50 years they talked about “pro-life” without realizing majority Americans are “pro-choice”. Last 50 years they talked about sanctity of marriage and anti LGBTQ community, but majority Americans , including republican voter support gay marriage and LGBTQ community. Last fifty years they preach about tax cut and smaller government , those smaller government and tax cut ideology don‘t work in 21st century. look at the red state, they cut spending and investment so much that their citizen are basically living in poverty.

Conservatism belongs in the past. So when you have no policy for 21st century, you hide behind anger, hide behind “ War on Woke” , hide behind “ immigrants are coming to get you”, hide behind liberals are cutting of your boy’s private part.

 

The best way the Republican Party can get back on their feet is one get rid of Donald Trump for good. Trump has ruined the Republican party and would keep on doing it and doing it. It would become The Donald Trump show. When Trump was President, He thought he could do anything he wanted and that is not true. There are a lot of things Trump could do.

 

Anyone familiar with these thugs?
I wasn't until I read this.
Just read that Missy Swamp Lake was on Santitti's show, you know the loon who's vying for Trump's V.P.

Lance Migliaccio:
https://www.justice.gov/archive/usao/co/news/2009/August09/8_28b_09.html

He's buddies Mike Flynn and Roger Stone who were just on his show.

"There is NOTHING on the Left that is comparable to this!!!"
09 June 2023
"A ****-show of a podcast called, "The Big Mig."

"In response to Trump's indictment, far-right "broadcasters" and seditionists, Pete Santilli and Lance Migliaccio."

Santilli: If I were the Commandant of the Marine Corp, OK? What I would do is order every single Marine assigned to the Marine Corp Barracks, to go grab freakin' Biden, throw him in freakin' zip-ties into the back of a friggin' pick-up truck, OK, and get him out of the White House. I would order that right now. And if the the Marines don't do it...as a matter of fact, can I call the the frickin' Marine Corps right now...

Unknown voice: No!

Santilli: ...the Commandant of the Marine Corps?

Migliaccio: I have to tell you something. If I were in charge of a department there, let's say in the three or four-star level, I would probably walk in and shoot (Joint Chief's Chairman, General Mark) Milley in the head, and I would aggressively take over the entire group.

Santilli: If it were legal; yeah.

Migliaccio: If it were legal.

Santilli: Right.

Migliaccio: And I would take him out and I would order an absolute hit-list (Garbled). I'd have a hit-list ready, and I would make them go after everybody that was on the list. The "dirty fifty-one," Schiff, Pelosi, Schumer; literally nobody would be left when I got done. I would snatch'em all."
Mutiny, kidnapping, sedition, military Coup d'Etat, murder, and a hit-list. Like Stalin. And McCarthy. Today's "Freedumb!" loving conservative Republicans!!


'You can watch the video yourself at "Right Wing Watch;" just scroll down to 09 June 2023'.

 

Nothing the Dems have done can compare to Trump's attempt to overthrow the election. It isn't even close.

 

LOL. He was never even close.

Have you noticed? He is my last choice for the Republican nomination. I want him OUT.

 

I didn't say he was close. I said he attempted. And despite attempting, he's still the leader of the party. I hope the GOP can find a new direction, and I'm hanging on for the primaries to see if it is possible, but if Trump remains the leader of the party after his attempt to overthrow democracy, the GOP is beyond redemption.

 

So we can count you among those who want one party rule.

People said that the Republicans were dead after 1964, and the Democrats after 1984.

 

So we can count on you to not read. I've mostly voted third party until now. The only thing tempting me toward voting straight-ticket for the first time in my life is the the GOP seems like they are going to keep supporting the greatest domestic threat to democracy that our country has faced in modern history. I will still vote in the GOP primaries to see if there is anything left to salvage. And if the GOP eventually rejects Trumpism, I'll be one of the first to throw a party.

 

So perhaps you have voted for guys like Ralph Nader, Ross Perot and John Anderson. Nader was an opportunist liar; Perot had a grudge against the Bush family and Anderson was just delusional. Voting for them is the same as “none of the above” or stay home.

If I am stuck with another Biden - Trump race, I will reluctantly vote for Trump. I don’t want either of them, but we can’t have four more years of extreme left rule and still have a democracy. If Trump is elected, the right will remove him after four years, or at 78 years old, the Good Lord will do it for us.

 

Trump himself can't be the future of the party. He's very old. Which speaks to a larger problem in our politics and politicians: why are they all so f'n old?
But for now, I think we're learning 2 things about the Republican future from DeSantis: 1) that actually giving a **** about the US and its citizens can be a powerful political message. 2) If that is one's message, be prepared for all out war on that person by our existing government, NGOs and main stream media. For instance, the NAACP, which I think is a 503c organization that is supposed to be non-partisan, has already issued statements to the effect warning black people to stay out of Florida. It is in Florida that black people are kicking economic ass. They're doing spectacular there.
Tells you a lot about the danger our country is in.

 

Why are our leading two politicians very old?

Biden was propped up as the man to stop Bennie Sanders from getting the Democrat presidential nomination. None of the other Democrat candidates were not strong enough to beat Sanders, who really isn't a Democrat. Sanders only joins the party when he wants its presidential nomination. Then he goes back to "Independent."

Biden won because African-American Representative, Jim Clyburn, endorsed him and threw the African-American vote his way. Sanders has a stronghold on the White Democrat voters because a majority of them think that socialism is good and Sanders is a self described socialist.

Biden has the inside track on the nomination now because he is a pliable puppet, and the Democrats don't have a strong candidate who could take his place. Newsom is the closest thing the Democrats have to an alternative. Newsom has a record of failure as California governor, but it does not matter. Democrats voters cast their ballots based on the party because that is what the schools have taught them.

Democrat good; Republican bad. If you learn that lesson, you will be half way toward getting a college diploma

Trump is a seasoned huckster who has caught the imagination of a slim majority to Republican primary voters. He has some substance, but ultimately, he is mostly bluster. He's old, and we are stuck with him. There are younger, more talented alternatives, but the Trump cult is totally under his spell. You can't outvote them in the primaries, but Trump will lose the general election because his name is toxic to the voters.

As bad as Biden is, it's very telling when polls show that he is ahead of Trump 48 to 44 percent. Part of that 48 have said that Biden is old and senile and a failure as president. That shows you how much they dislike Trump.

 

The Fat Lady Sang

mike luckovich
@mluckovichajc
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3:41 PM · Jul 3, 2023

 

I know this one!!! I know this one!!!

They (and their families) will be perfectly fine thanks to the current tax paying citizens of this country footing the bill.

What I just CANNOT UNDERSTAND is why the taxpayers don’t WAKE up (for a moment at least) and say: WAIT A MINUTE, sure you the greedy politician is getting paid for LIFE (for every political post they held they get LIFETIME PAYCHECKS AND BENEFITS).

Why is this acceptable “we the people?”

 

"Democrat good; Republican bad. If you learn that lesson, you will be half way toward getting a college diploma"

is that why conservative avoid going to collage?

 

He tried and has still not been held accountable.

As long as he remains unpunished by the legal system then what happened on 1/6 is just a dress rehersal.