Will Delta's YOUNGER Case Hospitalization/Fatality Rates increase over the next 8 weeks?

That's the number I was referring to............U.S. Delta may have lower rates than Alpha, however, higher the number of daily cases, higher everything else;

The US could see 200,000 Covid-19 cases a day within the next six weeks, former CDC director says

https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/27/health/us-coronavirus-tuesday/index.html

---------------

Note: Last time covid reached 200,000 cases daily was on Dec 2nd, 2020. Same day, 100,000 current hospitalizations.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
https://covidtracking.com/data/national/hospitalization

 

Don't we pay people to keep up with this stuff, to gather and mine the data, and make wise/informed recommendations to the public?

 

Like CDC and Fauci?

To Republicans, NOT credible/reliable sources, and for said reason, I've been posting State's Health Covid Numbers/percentages/averages, such as DeSantis Department of Health, for example;

New Cases For the past 5 weeks................Data include only Florida residents

Jun 11 - Jun 17; Total Cases 10,463
Jun 18 - Jun 24; 18.804
Jun 25 - Jul 1st; 16,031
Jul 2nd - Jul 9th; 23,697
Jul 10th - Jul 16th; 45,604
Jul 17th - Jul 23rd; 73,119

New Cases Positivity Rate for the past 4 weeks...................Data include only Florida residents

Jun 11 - Jun17; 3.3%......Average over 7 days
Jun 18 - Jun 24; 3.8%
Jun 25 - Jul 1st; 5.2%
Jul 2nd - Jul 9th; 7.8%
Jul 10th - Jul 16th; 11.5%
Jul 17th - Jul 23rd; 15.1%

Number of Covid19 Deaths..................Data include only Florida residents

Jul 2nd - Jul 9th; 32......Total deaths over 7 days
Jul 10th - jul 17th; 59
Jul 17th - Jul 23rd; 78

http://ww11.doh.state.fl.us/comm/_p..._archive/covid19-data/covid19_data_latest.pdf

------------------------

NOTE: Today, even the most trusted figures are mistrusted by Republicans, and their reaction;




IMO, they don't want to acknowledge DA TRUTH, because acknowledging the truth would legitimize unwanted control measures, such as; a mask mandate.

Also, they've been using the word ''Fearmongering'' every time left-wingers have reported SURGING numbers.

Well, the opposite of fearmongering is REASSURING, and our historical best reassuring POTUS was definitely TRUMP, for example; April 2020; ''It’s going to go away, hopefully at the end of the month. And, if not, hopefully it will be soon after that''

 

CDC Numbers;

Week ending July 17, 2021

Weekly number of deaths by age group;

0 to 4; 9 deaths
5 to 17; 20
18 to 49; 276
50 to 65; 178
65 and over; 215

https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/covidnet/COVID19_5.html

NOTE; CDC numbers, HOWEVER, their stats reveal that due to vaccinations, (80% of seniors are fully vaccinated), the number of deaths was larger among the 18 to 49 group.

 

Well you can wrestle the particulars and differences. But sometimes it's just best to ride out the ebb and flow as the truth falls in and out of favor, looking forward to brighter days.

 

Wait a minute.....In this thread, I've explained the reason why that in the U.S., we should start calculating Delta Rates from August 1st to August 31st, 2021........

JULY 20............Delta variant now accounts for 83% of U.S. Cases
https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20210720/delta-variant-now-accounts-for-83-of-us-covid-cases

AND

According to this article, looks like UK's Covid Daily Cases were near 100% Delta middle of JUNE, 2021

''Public Health England (PHE) has said that more than 90% of new Covid cases in the UK involve the Delta variant. Indeed the most recent data suggests the figure could be as high as 96% of new cases in England.''

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/11/delta-variant-is-linked-to-90-of-covid-cases-in-uk

Fact; Average days from being infected to being hospitalized; 14 days

Fact; Covid Patients average staty in hospital; 14 days

THUS, in the UK, after JUST ONE MONTH of near 100% DELTA Cases/Hospitalizations/Deaths, HOOSIER8/Someone concluded that UK's Delta is less deadly than Alpha, Correct?

 

The UK did in that it was only slightly very less deadly or essentially the same.

 

That's Ok......after a month of near 100% Delta cases, if UK was able to determine their Delta Rates, SO CAN WE near the end of August......you know what i'm saying?

 

CNN links make it more dubious.

 

I found UK's Case/Hospitalization Rate, pandemic average;

UK total covid hospitalizations; 487,914
UK total covid cases; 5,745,526
Case/Hospitalization Rate; 8.5

Current Hospitalization Rate; 3.44

Total hospital admissions between July 05 to Jul 19, (14 days); 9,994
Total covid cases between 21 June to July 05 (14 days); 306,881
9,994/306,881 = 3.44

Note: Delta's Case/Hospitalization Rate is significantly lower than pandemic average, HOWEVER, because most seniors have been vaccinated, I still have to find UK's below age 50 Case/Hospitalization Rate, both Delta and Alpha. I'll keep you posted.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_the_United_Kingdom

 

Ahh yes, The Emperor's New Clothes are stunning.

 

Purpose of this thread is determine Delta's Case/Hospitalization and Case Fatality Rate COMPARED to Alpha's CHR/CFR for the following age groups;

55 to 64
45 to 54
35 to 44
25 to 34
15 to 24
5 to 14
Under 5

Why below age 65? Because at least 80% of our Seniors have been fully vaccinated.

Thus, the question is; Among the above-mentioned age groups, and in the U.S., will Delta's CHR and CFR be lower or higher than Alpha's CHR/CFR?

Answer; In the U.S., we still don't have enough data to determine both Delta's CHR and CFR, and in the UK, only Delta's CHR is calculable, and I'm working on it.

 

BINGO!

In the UK, more young people are being hospitalized due to Covid 19/Delta Variant.

Percentage of patients admitted with Covid19, and number of inpatients diagnosed with Covid19 by age group;

UK Second Wave; Dec to Feb.......Mainly Alpha Variant

0 to 5..........0.71%
6 to 17........0.62%
18 to 54......21.4%
55 to 64......15.31%

UK Third Wave; May to July 1st.........Mainly Delta Variant

0 to 5..........3.68%
6 to 17........3.22%
18 to 54......52.53%
55 to 64......11.22%

NOTE: June 11th, 2021.......''Public Health England (PHE) has said that more than 90% of new Covid cases in the UK involve the Delta variant. Indeed the most recent data suggests the figure could be as high as 96% of new cases in England.''

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/11/delta-variant-is-linked-to-90-of-covid-cases-in-uk

IN ADDITION............



https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57489740


HOWEVER, HOWEVER, HOWEVER........

UK's DELTA Case Fatality Rate has been lower than ALPHA in all age groups;

https://www.newstatesman.com/politi...has-been-hit-hardest-uk-s-third-wave-covid-19

---------------------------------------

DeSantis; ''The name of the game is to keep people out of hospitals''

Agree!

 

Compared to the U.S.; ''Over 95% of hospitalized covid19 patients were/are unvaccinated''

Here's the reason why significantly more vaccinated people were hospitalized in the UK;

60% of all COVID hospitalisations are unvaccinated
https://news.yahoo.com › how-many-covid-hospitalisati...Jul. 19, 2021 — 60% of all COVID hospitalisations are unvaccinated, says Patrick Vallance ... In this article: ... Chief scientific adviser ...

Among Fully Vaccinated, Breakthrough Covid-19 Infections ...
https://www.forbes.com › joshuacohen › 2021/07/226 days ago — In the U.K., it was reported last week that 40% of confirmed Delta variant patients admitted to hospital had received at least one dose of ..

THE NUMBERS;


As of 14 July, an estimated 20 million first doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine and 24.7 million first doses of the COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca had been administered, and around 12.1 million and 22.8 million second doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine and COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca respectively. An approximate 1.3 million first doses of the COVID-19 Vaccine Moderna have also now been administered.

Total Doses of Pfizer; 32.1 million
Total Doses of AstraZeneca; 52.9 million.....................THAT'S WHY!. AstraZeneca is approx. 20% less effective that Pfizer and Moderna, both infections and hospitalizations
Total Doses of Moderna; 1.3 million

https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...irus-vaccine-summary-of-yellow-card-reporting

THUS, another BINGO!

 

Logically, you should rather say that "thanks to vaccinations", the number of deaths was lower among the 65 and over group.

 

For anyone's info.....

Today's miamiherald.com has several recent videos of Florida's Doctors describing sharp rises of Delta covid patients

https://www.miamiherald.com/

Anticipated response from Republicans; Fearmongering!

 

Interesting data indeed. It brings 2 comments to my mind: 1. more younger cases could be explained by the fact that young people are less vaccinated (if the Uk started vaccinating older age groups first- I don't know if it's the case); 2. lower fatality rate could, at least partly, be attributed to a better handling of the cases, as medical teams get more experienced along the months. (I heard that medical staff think there was some over-medication during the first months).

 

U.S. and UK's Delta rates will certainly not be ''AT PAR'', both Hospitalizations and Deaths

Main reasons;

a. Percent of vaccinations

b. Vulnerable Ethnic groups, such as; American Indians, Black Americans

c. Covid underlying conditions, and other comorbidities

Coronary Heart Disease......

Rate per 100,000

U.S. 79.21
UK 47.64

Kidney Disease

U.S. 10.83
U.K 2.63

Hypertension

U.S. 7.62
UK 2.13

Diabetes

U.S. 15.27
UK 4.17

Obesity

U.S. 36.2%
UK 27.80

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_obesity_rate
https://www.worldlifeexpectancy.com/cause-of-death/inflammatory-heart/by-country/


BTW, 100,000 cases today......Worldometer

 

Your title asks about deaths/hospitalizations.

Your opening post then says NOTHING about deaths and your link to track hospitalizations stopped tracking that data 4 months ago.

Here's deaths:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/#graph-deaths-daily

Very near pandemic lows.

New cases hit lows on a 7 day average of about 10.8k on June 21 with deaths hitting a low on a 7 day average on about July 8 of about 233. That's a 2.2% death rate.

Today the 7 day death rate is 318 with a 7 day new case rate on July 13 (same interval as above) of 25,000, so, a 231% increase in new cases accompanying an increase in deaths of only 36% or a death rate of 1.3%. That's a 41% decrease in lethality in just 3 weeks. This new variant appears to be exactly what we expect of a variant, more infectious and less deadly.

 

Covidtraking.org stopped reporting covid hospitalizations end of March. Carlson tracking project took over hospitalizations data, however, their figures are State's Health/DoH, and excludes suspected/probable covid hospitalizations, and about 10% of total covid hospitalizations are suspected/probable). Also, to determine the Case/Hospitalization Rate, National or State, we can only use Carlson's with State's Health Data, or John Hopkin's Total Hospitalizations and Total Cases, HOWEVER, among all covid tracking entities, percentages and rates, are near the same, due to the fact that your dividing LARGE and LARGE, or SMALL and SMALL.

SMALL and SMALL CHR equates to;

Total Carlson's Hospitalizations; 1,191,483
Total State's Health Cases; 32,244,815
CHR; 3.7%

SMALL and SMALL Case Fatality Rate equates to;

Total State's Health Covid Deaths; 579,650
Total State's Health Covid Cases; 32,244,815
CFR; 1.79%

LARGE and LARGE Case Fatality Rate equates to;

Total Worldometer Covid Deaths; 629,064
Total Worldometer Covid Cases; 35,668,506
CFR; 1.76%, thus, damn near close to State's Health CFR

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_the_United_States

https://www.google.com/search?q=u.s.+covid+hospitalization,+carlson&oq=u.s.+&aqs=chrome.1.69i59l4j69i57j69i61l3.3493j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

BEFORE I CONTINUE, do you have any question about ''all of the above''?

 

Now, in reference to your method and dates of calculating DELTA's Case Fatality Rate, there are several discrepancies;

Discrepancy # 1. As I stated in a previous post, and according to the following article dated ''20TH of JULY.......

JULY 20............Delta variant now accounts for 83% of U.S. Cases
https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20210720/delta-variant-now-accounts-for-83-of-us-covid-cases

.......thus, for a more accurate Delta CFR, we should start TABULATING as of AUGUST 1st, and/or when over 90% or near 100% of new covid cases have been diagnosed as Delta.

Discrepancy # 2. If we were to begin tabulating Delta's CFR as of August 1st, WE HAVE TO USE 14-Day Averages, both Cases and Deaths due to the following reasons;

a. Pandemic Average Days from INFECTION to HOSPITALIZATION; 14 days.....covid symptoms starts to show 4/5/6 days after infection, and subsequently, severity of covid illness increases to a point of requiring hospitalization.

b. Pandemic Average Days from Hospital Admission Date to Dying of Covid; 14 days

THUS, our first most accurate, and preliminary Delta CFR could be tabulated on August 28.


Last, BE WISE, thus, don't jump to a conclusion.

 

The biggest of which is lack of data, no one claimed this was conclusive.

Fake News. The date on the article is not restriction on reality. Delta didn't go from 0-83% at the instant the article was dated.

7 day average is simply what was easily available in the graph posted. If you add two of them together, the results would still hold closely enough for an early indication, which by it's very nature is always based in an inadequate amount of info.

Your hospitalizions tracker is kaput. They quit adding data in March.

Heed your own advise, you just jumped to the conclusion that I reached a conclusion, I have not, however, the early indication is that Delta is exactly what we expect from a variant. More infecteous, less deadly.

​

 

ONCE AGAIN

ACCORDING TO THE CDC

Delta variant now makes up 83 per cent of U.S. cases, CDC says

The more contagious Delta variant of COVID-19 now makes up 83 per cent of sequenced samples in the United States, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky said Tuesday.

"This is a dramatic increase, up from 50 per cent for the week of July 3," Walensky said in a Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions hearing.

CDC Says Delta Variant Makes Up an Estimated 83 Percent of ...
https://www.nytimes.com › U.S. › Politics
Jul. 20, 2021 — The Delta variant makes up an estimated 83 percent of U.S. cases, the C.D.C. director says.

Delta variant now makes up 83 per cent of U.S. cases, CDC ...
https://www.ctvnews.ca › health › coronavirus › delta-vari...
Jul. 20, 2021 — And when there is a high rate of virus spread in a community and a low proportion of vaccinated people, "you really want to go the extra step, ...

-------------------------------------

THUS.....

Up to 50%, week of July 3rd, thus, CDC estimated data from Sunday June 27th to Saturday July 3rd

Article dated Tuesday, July 20th.......CDC Director estimate............up to 83%, thus, most likely, CDC estimated data from Sunday July 11 to Saturday July 17

CDC Says Delta Variant Makes Up an Estimated 83 Percent of ...
https://www.nytimes.com › U.S. › Politics
Jul. 20, 2021 — The Delta variant makes up an estimated 83 percent of U.S. cases, the C.D.C. director says.

Delta variant now makes up 83 per cent of U.S. cases, CDC ...
https://www.ctvnews.ca › health › coronavirus › delta-vari...
Jul. 20, 2021 — And when there is a high rate of virus spread in a community and a low proportion of vaccinated people, "you really want to go the extra step, ...

---------------------------

MY RATIONALE; Based on the above-mentioned CDC estimates, and for a more accurate Delta Case Fatality Rate, perhaps we should wait until over 90% or near 100% of new covid cases have been diagnosed as Delta, thus, let's assume end of July/early August.

Last, ATTENTION everyone; Please don't post the following idiotic partisan game in my thread;

REAL NEWS when CDC Covid Data favors Republican's beliefs, and FAKE NEWS when CDC Covid Data favors Democrat's beliefs, and vice versa.

 

I think I follow.