Will Delta's YOUNGER Case Hospitalization/Fatality Rates increase over the next 8 weeks?

Ironically ending lock downs may have hampered the ability of people to access their community level information. At least in my state there was a big tick in cases and the media couldn't figure out where because they day was no longer being provided with the same level of detail as it had before due to the "lifting of restrictions".

Anyway, all I can do is mention that I just read an article from the local paper that had a quote from our regional epidemiologist that said delta is spreading faster among younger people and those who get it are more likely to get sicker and need ICU intervention than with the prior strains.

 

I watched two videos at miamiherald.com, and several Southern Doctors have said........''We were down to near zero covid patients, and just over two weeks, and huge spike of covid patients, younger and sicker.

 

Florida sets record high daily cases......over 20,000 cases

https://www.miamiherald.com/

State's Health Numbers;

July 30.......2,614,383 cases.......Deaths; 38,971

July 31.......2,636,066 cases.......Deaths; 39,079

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Florida

NO fearmongering, just factual news.

 

The fake news was your claim that the impact of Delta was limited to the date on the article. As for your demand that I not post on your thread, if you are on a public thread, and I wish to post on it, my only duty is to conform with posting rules. These demands in some quarters for other folks to stop saying this, and stop thinking in public discourse is just ridiculous.

Your illegitimate stipulation is refused.

 

All news the right doesn't want to hear is fake news (and/or a leftist temper tantrum).

I daily give thanks that I wasn't born, or decided to live, in Florida.... I did vacation there 2 years in a row back in the early 90's, but it wasn't a complete dungheap back then....

COVID might be turning Florida purple again.... at least it should be, with such ABYSMAL current "leadership"...

 

CA has 1,793,219 active cases, or, 33% of the nation's cases even though they only have 11.9% of the population. They have far more cases than they should for their population share.

FL has 5.7% of the cases with 6.4% of the population. They have fewer cases than would be expected for their population, so, they are doing and above average job, but, all we hear is FL, FL, FL, The FL focus strikes me as political.

 

Looks like California had their share of Media attention when their daily cases were surging to record highs


California's new one-day record for COVID-19 cases: 74,000 ...
https://www.latimes.com › california › story › california...Jan. 5, 2021 — After a relative New Year's lull, the state on Monday reported its highest number of new coronavirus cases in a single day, more than 74,000, ...

CA Records Highest Number Of Daily Covid-19 Cases Ever ...
https://deadline.com › 2020/12 › ca-covid-19-update-c...Dec. 16, 2020 — California's Covid-19 dashboard reported 53,711 new cases over the previous 24-hour period. Usually a big jump in one day can be attributed to a ...

California is first state to pass 3m Covid cases The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com › us-news › jan › californ...Jan. 19, 2021 — California has become the first state to record more than 3m coronavirus infections, as it grapples with an unprecedented surge of cases ...

California's Covid-19 case surge is alarming - CNN
https://www.cnn.com › california-covid-surge-alarming-rise
See inside struggling California hospital as Covid-19 cases rise ... leading to continued daily record highs in hospitalizations and deaths.
Dec. 29, 2020

California tops 3 million Covid-19 cases - CNN
https://www.cnn.com › 2021/01/18 › california-3-million-...
Jan. 18, 2021 — California has become the first state in the nation to record more than 3 million Covid-19 cases, according to data from Johns Hopkins ...

California Reports Record One-Day Coronavirus Death Toll ...
https://www.usnews.com › News › Health NewsDec. 30, 2020 — The state, which is seeing a surge in COVID-19 cases that is overwhelming its health care system and workers, recorded 442 deaths on Tuesday, ...

California coronavirus cases, hospitalizations and deaths ...
https://www.washingtonpost.com › nation › 2020/12/16Dec. 17, 2020 — California hospitals are nearly overwhelmed as the state reports record-breaking coronavirus numbers.

California reaches another single-day record for new ... - KTLA
https://ktla.com › news › california › california-reaches-...Jan. 5, 2021 — After a relative New Year's lull in confirmed infections, California posted a new single-day record for coronavirus cases Monday, ...

California records new high in coronavirus cases - ABC News
https://abcnews.go.com › Health › wireStory › californi...Nov. 25, 2020 — Cases of COVID-19 have been climbing at an alarming rate for weeks and hit a new high of 18,350 recorded Tuesday, surpassing a previous record ...

U.S. sets record for COVID deaths, and California confirms ...
https://www.marketwatch.com › story › us-sets-record-for...
Dec. 31, 2020 — California set a record of 432 deaths from COVID-19 on Wednesday, ... has the second highest death toll at 193,875 and is third by cases at ...

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IN ADDITION, Worldometer definitions;

Definitions
Total Cases = reported total cumulative count of detected and laboratory (and sometimes, depending on the country reporting them and the criteria adopted at the time, also clinically) confirmed positive and sometimes - depending on the country reporting standards - also presumptive, suspect, or probable cases of detected infection. Because it represents a cumulative count (rather than a snapshot of the number of current cases at any given time), this number can't decrease. The size of the gap between detected (whether confirmed, suspect or probable) and reported cases versus actual cases will depend on the number of tests performed and on the country's transparency in reporting. Most estimates have put the number of undetected cases at several multiples of detected cases. See also: Change in US CDC "Case" and "Death" definition

Active Cases = (total cases) - (total deaths) - (recovered). This figure represents the current number of people detected and confirmed to be infected with the virus. This figure can increase or decrease, and represents an important metric for Public Health and Emergency response authorities when assessing hospitalization needs versus capacity.

Recoveries = this statistic is highly imperfect, because reporting can be missing, incomplete, incorrect, based on different definitions, or dated (or a combination of all of these) for many governments, both at the local and national level, sometimes with differences between states within the same country or counties within the same state. WHO recommends following the criteria of [symptoms resolve + 2 negative tests within 24 hours] or [symptoms resolve + additional 14 days], but this is only a recommendation. In some countries, when a patient is discharged from the hospital it is counted as "recovered" even if no test is performed. Some health officials now consider anyone who was diagnosed with COVID-19 three or more weeks ago and has not died to be recovered from the disease. In view of this, "Active Cases" and "Closed Cases Outcome" which both depend on the number of recoveries (in addition to an accurate death count and a satisfactory rate of case detection, both of which are lacking in the vast majority of countries) can be affected by this inherent flaw for many countries and for the total worldwide count.

NOTE: Active Cases = (total cases) - (total deaths) - (recovered)

Minus RECOVERED

We Don’t Know How Many People Have Recovered From COVID-19
Recovery has no standard definition, and some states, including California and Florida, do not report such data at all??????????

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/...-have-recovered-covid-19-we-dont-know/617679/

 

CA has 2,100,714 recovered
FL has 2,289,018

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

 

Did you know that Worldometer's Florida Total Cases include both residents and non-residents, however, Total Deaths only include residents?

 

Why? The science says the cloth the paper masks people wear are not effective. Government wants you to feel like you are doing something against the virus for some reason. There is no science indicating that all the mask wearing made any difference at all. It is pointless. Personally I think distancing makes some common sense. Masks, not so much.

 

This. Masks did not make any difference last year and they won't again this year. But it will give everyone an easy way to virtue signal. Stupid. stupid. stupid.

 

Folks, in this thread, I made 3 WRONG Delta predictions;

1. Due to younger, and generally healthier patients, and as a percent of ''Current Hospitalizations, ICU admissions will significantly decline below Pandemic average of 20%.

WRONG!...........Delta's ICU admissions increased above 20% of hospitalized patients

2. Percent ''On ventilators'' will remain the same, thus, between 5% and 6% of ''Current Hospitalizations

WRONG!...........Percent ''On ventilators'' increased above 12% of hospitalized patients

3. Children's Case Hospitalization/Fatality Rates will remain very low.

PARTLY WRONG!..........Compared to Original Covid, the percentage of hospitalized children infected with Delta TRIPLED.

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Also more likely to spread indoors no matter what you do.

 

I also made another WRONG prediction; I predicted that Delta's daily deaths 7-Day rolling average will likely not surpass 500. Today's Delta's Daily Deaths 7-Day rolling average; 1,030. NOTE: Said prediction was based on UK's Delta Daily Cases/Daily Deaths 7-Day rolling average. Lesson learned; Due to numerous factors, UK and U.S. Delta statistics are incomparable.

 

Virtually all transmission is indoors. Outdoor infections are so rare that they aren't even reported. Everybody will contract delta or another strain just like everyone has contracted flu, common cold and all other corona viruses. Not much we can do about it. Distancing is good and there is evidence that vaccination, while not preventing infection, appears to lessen the severity of delta infections.