Will there be a second wave ...

Some ignorant people have to learn the hard way. With viruses, a country puts its peoples' lives at risk if it doesn't give the antidote and keep giving it till it dies.

What's that? All 320 million Americans? Yes, all of them unless there are naturally resilient "pockets", which is likely ...

PS: Do you (plural) really think you're messing around with only a Very, Very Bad Cold?

 

The "wave model" is a result of incorrect treatment of the pandemic. Waves emerge when people think the virus is defeated and then relax the countermeasures too early.

It's similar to an illness that is treated with an antibiotic. If you think you're well again and stop the treatment, the disease can come back.

 

Not so. Waves emerge because humans breed the initial ingredients. Original we called it a "Common Cold". Came every winter and left every Spring.

This year it fooled everybody. Worse yet were the phenomenon not here-to-stay. It's slowing down but it aint gone yet ...

Quite right!

But if you have a "usual history" of stopping medication and the illness leaves anyway, it creates a "learned pattern" that we tend to regard each repetition as a "bother" but not much more.

But, when it kills people it creates a well-regarded "heads up" that instills fear. Aint nothun' like fear to really move a human's ass to do something s/he is not used to doing but remains nonetheless very necessary. Some call it "getting set in one's ways" ...

 

Where is the 1st wave ???

 

Education is payed on the town or county level through property taxes....
The electoral college is hardly new how did it "screw up" anything....

Stick to France.

 

We need a vax.

 

And why not the DoD?

Because with a DoD budget in the hands of the (Right) political party, that party can dish-out HUGE BUNDLES OF MONEY to their political kin!

C'mon! WHO do you think you are kidding? You don't seem to understand how LaLaLand on the Potomac functions ...

Yeah, I'll stick to France. Both my kids went to university for $1K of tuition here in France. Your kids (at a state school) cost on average $14K à year!!! (And in private-school its even More Expensive!)

Here is the costing at a private-school Tertiary Education (from here):

FIVE TIMES in America's history the EC has elected the Wrong Person as President. The last time being Donald Dork presently occupying the Offal Office! (See them all listed in Wikipedia here.)

That's how! No other truly-democratic nation on earth screws-up the Head-of-state voting in that manner ... !

 

You still dont get the function of the EC... The popular vote in this country is moot for a reason... But keep screaming.

 

Actually we are trying to avoid a worse disease - poverty which kills more than Covid. Stop the hysteria.

 

The EC will not carry Trump this time, and the NPV passing in 2023 indeed will make it moot. The new six justices as SCOTUS grows to fifteen seats will ensure that it remains moot.

 

Well hell, if that's the case why won't there be an endless number of waves into the future?

Herd immunity is why that won't happen, and herd immunity is growing day by day.

 

Sorry, I meant statistically significant testing.

The USA tests so few that its not even qualified to be a guess.

That's why all the people who want it can just try to justify its time to relax.

But high population density speeds up transmission, but the less dense population will have "waves" too. But those "waves" have not even reached Wave One yet. Another month is needed for even partial saturation. By opening up the "lockdowns", the quaint city of Mayberry is going to see Aunt Bee and Floyd both in intensive care at the same time which will overwhelm the tiny healthcare system.

Oops, there is much fewer ICU healthcare in smaller areas. "More than 20% of our nation’s rural hospitals, or 430 hospitals across 43 states, are near collapse. This is despite the fact that rural hospitals are not only crucial for health care but also survival of their small rural communities. Since 2010, 113 rural hospitals across the country have closed."

Never mind!

 

"Herd immunity" only helps if geting sick confers immunity.

Unfortunately, a not insignificant number of COVID victims, once well, get COVID again. South has documented nearly three hundred get COVID again.

How many will be immune long term is unknown, if any, since the disease is so new, but its good chance to be bad news, getting sick a second time has the same rate of illness. The prognosis looks grim....

npr.org

 

"Obviously you need to take it seriously..." Did you miss that part?

January 24: "The virus: At least 25 people are dead in China and more than 800 infected as the Wuhan coronavirus continues to spread throughout Asia and across the world."https://www.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-intl-hnk/index.html

"The Wuhan coronavirus does not yet constitute a public health emergency of international concern, according to an emergency committee convened by the World Health Organization." (ibid, 1:48 p.m. ET, January 23, 2020)

Orange [World Health Organization] Bad, right?

 

And you do not understand the "essence" of any Real Democracy is the popular-vote. Virginal. Untouched. Unmanipulated.

We are now a developed, educated economy. We certainly do not need "excuses" (above all in a two-party system) to manipulate the popular-vote in order to have an electoral advantage. What occurs is the "unhinging" of a democratic majority in which the majority-rule is destroyed.

Without which a democracy is no longer a democracy ...

 

There will or will not be a second wave and we shall see it very quickly. (This is a virus we are talking about, not a herd of whatever! BIG difference!)

You are BOTH arguing in a manner of humans. Viruses are NOT human. They stop and go and stop and go again only if the circumstances permit them to do so.

In the SARS case (2002/2004) it did take two years to finally succeed in definitively killing the virus ...

 

NO WAR HAS BEEN DECLARED!

Given the fact that the DoD swallows whole HALF THE ENTIRE Discretionary Budget, that is where, yes, we should start. That is, if we want to bring some sober logic to the way America spends its money. The US has already a Total Debt (caused by excessive budget spending over recent years) that is the basic reason the country is in Very Deep Debt-Sneakers at the next economic downturn.

Which is just around the corner as soon as we get rid of the COVID-20!

Just how do you want the US to come out of that problem? Stumble right into a major recession because Demand has virtually stopped? That can indeed happen if Americans do not sustain the economy whilst not working. Meaning, yes, both us and the government must keep spending as long as we can.

But if we-the-sheeple must stop spending (because we've reached a limit) then the obvious alternative is that people go back to work. And, Believe Me, a lot of people are going to die doing so!

So, what's to be done? In order to kick-start an economy then BigGovernment must start spending again, which creates Demand, and does get people back into work. With that revenue respent, then the economy can indeed spur onward on its own. But not before ...

And let this be a lesson to us all. Half the entire Federal Government expenditure SHOULD NOT BE LOCATED IN THE DEPT. OF DEFENSE!

No war has been declared ... !!!

 

The United States of America is a Constitutional Republic..

Again stick to France as you keep showing you know nothing of this country.

 

Let's get the WW2 Allied military deaths right, shall we?

From here:
-US: 407.3K
-UK: 683.7K
-France: 210K
-Russia: 8.7M

Yes, the Russians suffered more war-deaths than the others combined, by a margin of 85% to 15% (almost 6 to 1).

Surprise, surprise, isn't it ... ?

 

There will be a second wave. Just in time for the elections.

 

Why thank you, Mr. LB, that was some valuable information.
As for your question, no there will be no second wave. A cure will emerge ~3 months from now. Mark my words.

 

Both China and Singapore are reporting a second wave of the virus right now, this time China's wave is more concentrated in Beijing.

 

The EC will not carry Trump this time, and the NPV passing in 2023 indeed will make it moot. The new six justices as SCOTUS grows to fifteen seats will ensure that it remains moot.

 

Yes, we solved the 2002-2004 SARS without a vaccine by following good process and treatment. We aren't doing that today, perhaps partly because the current SARS outbreak is more serious, but also because our response has been slow and piecemeal.

So far, there have been no SARS vaccines for humans, though there are some in the works - projected to be available in a year or so if they work.

My bet is that we have a lot to learn yet. And, I see no reason to suggest there won't be further significant outbreaks in America as we relax contact rules while still not having anything close to even just what the Trump plan requires.

 

WHAT GOES AROUND COMES AROUND

From the The Guardian here: What If Covid-19 Isnt Our Biggest Threat?

Excerpt:

Sometimes people who write for large multinational newspapers go overboard in their urgent quest to "put something black on white paper". Their minds take wing and fly high, high, high.

For the moment, what we have as concrete evidence, is that the turn of the 21st century brought us a very harmful virus. But nobody paid attention when SARS struck the town of Foshan in China in 2002. The Chinese wrangled with it and in due time (two years!) it was finally mastered with a loss of lives in the seven-hundreds. Was that just a show-'n-tell from Mother Nature saying, "Hey guys! Look what I can do!"

Was it? Whatever the answer, the WHO and key-nations around the globe are all heads up on this question, "Just what can Mother Nature do now?" That question is on the minds of every Contagion Expert on this planet. And, in fact, to my mind, it is has spurned them into a great frenzy of actually trying to mimic the formula that would indeed bring to life that ugly agent of anti-humanism. And kill it before it even got started!

So, is a New Pandemic in the offing? Almost certainly. These things come around and go around. But, this time around, it wont catch humanity with its pants down!

Time will tell. It always does ...